Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Showers from this morning continue to linger across portions of
central KS this afternoon along the axis of highest precipitable
water (1.9" axis). However, the main focus of this afternoon will
fall across southern KS in the  of a stalled cold front currently
along the KS/OK border and outflow boundary in northeast Oklahoma
which arches back into south central KS. The cloud shield arching
from central KS back toward SW KS is likely developing another
differential heating induced baroclinic zone from Kingman County
west toward DDC.

ML CAPE in the 3500-4000 j/kg range and marginal shear of 20 to
30kts will support mainly multicell clusters this afternoon into
early evening. Marginally severe hail will be possible, but
damaging winds are the more dominant threat with DCAPE values in
excess of 1000J/kg. Wouldn't be surprised to see a landspout
today given very slow moving sfc boundaries and exceptional 0-3km
CAPE (180j/kg) and 0-3km lapse rates >8 C/km. Localized flooding
will also be a concerned for storms that develop this afternoon
and evening with very high PW values resulting in efficient
rainfall, and very slow storm motions.

Increasing moisture transport developing this evening and tonight
will bring additional chances for storms, some of which could be
strong. At this time thinking these elevated storms will be
focused mainly across central KS and extending southeastward along
the NE fringe of the CWA, as best moisture transport and
instability drift northeastward.

Strong to severe storms will be possible again tomorrow as a sfc low
develops over western KS in concert with an embedded shortwave
progged to move across the area. Central KS will have the best
chance of seeing severe storms where nearly 40-50kts of shear will
be present with appreciable instability. That said, some of the
more hi- res solutions resolve a tightening dryline extending
into south central KS, with <20 J/kg CIN in the afternoon, though
potentially with less shear to work with. Woudln't be surprised
to see an isolated storm or two further south. While large hail
and damaging winds would be the main threat tomorrow, backed sfc
winds will keep the tornado threat around. Will have to keep an
eye on this period.

Temperature wise, the hot temps will continue for a couple more
days with highs in the 90s tomorrow and upper 90s and low 100s
Friday before some relief begins to arrive this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

A welcomed cold front will push through the area Saturday into
Sunday bringing relief to the heat. A few showers and storms will
be possible Saturday and Sunday as the front rolls through. Highs
Sunday will feel much "cooler" with temps in the upper 70s to low
80s with lows getting into the low 60s and upper 50s for some.
However, the cooler temps don't look to stick around long with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s returning by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Main aviation concern will be storm chances this afternoon and
early evening.

Showers and a couple storms have remained over central KS the last
several hours as water vapor imagery shows a mid level moisture
plume remaining in place along with persistent mid level moisture
transport. However, most of this activity has been showers and not
storms. Additional storms are expected across southern KS
generally after 4 pm along a weakening cold front. The sites most
likely to be impacted will be KICT and KHUT. This activity should
start to diminish after around 03z. Main threat with these storms
will be downburst winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  93  77 100 /  30  20   0   0
Hutchinson      69  93  76 101 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          69  91  77  98 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        69  88  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  93  76  99 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         68  94  74 103 /  30  30  30   0
Great Bend      69  95  75 103 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          70  93  77 103 /  40  40  20   0
McPherson       70  91  76 101 /  30  30  10   0
Coffeyville     72  90  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
Chanute         71  88  74  95 /  20  20  10   0
Iola            70  87  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  75  96 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...RBL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ092-222015-
Sumner KS-
239 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Sumner
County through 315 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Conway Springs, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Plaine, Conway Springs, Wellington Airport and Riverdale.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 22 and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 9762 3741 9763 3748 9732 3748 9731
      3732 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 239DEG 5KT 3738 9750

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ083-092-222045-
Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
309 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sedgwick and northwestern Sumner Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Viola, or near Conway Springs, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clearwater, Conway Springs and Viola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 9771 3752 9776 3756 9749 3743 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 247DEG 7KT 3746 9761

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ082-222045-
Kingman KS-
313 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Kingman
County through 345 PM CDT...

At 313 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cunningham, or 8 miles east of Cairo, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cunningham, Willowdale and Penalosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9847 3773 9825 3773 9816 3748 9814
      3751 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 263DEG 10KT 3761 9840

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LAWSON