Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

The main low pressure system is over the Northern Plains with a
portion stretching back to the Great Basin. A cold front associated
with this system has stretched from the Texas Panhandle to along the
central Kansas/Oklahoma border into central Missouri. This front
will be the focus for convective development this evening. There is
initial development visible in western Oklahoma. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a few counties in south
central Kansas, and this area may be expanded to the east and north
depending on further convective development. If you have outdoor
plans this evening, make sure to stay weather aware and have an idea
of where you would take shelter if needed. When thunder roars, go
indoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Highlights:

1) Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday

2) Localized flooding through early Thursday

3) Cooler

Change: Modified precipitation chances tonight-Wed

Headlines:

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10PM
2) Flood Watch thru midnight Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday. The cold
front as mentioned above should be the initial focus for convection
this evening with short term models showing storms moving
in/expanding in coverage around 5-7PM. SPC did tweak their outlook
for today removing the enhanced risk from southeast Kansas with the
better threat in western Oklahoma and parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Potential still exists for strong to severe thunderstorms with the
possibility of up to golf ball sized hail and 60 mph winds in south
central and southeast Kansas. Initial supercells could pose the
potential for a tornado, but the threat is quite low. The activity
is expected to fill in and become more linear. Elevated storms will
become the factor to the north and west of the front late this
evening and tonight.

Localized flooding is a concern especially across south central and
southeast Kansas with the possibility of training showers and storms
over those areas. Precipitable water values are on the increase. The
Flood Watch covers this well. Most locations where the heavier
rainfall is expected received minimal if any precipitation in the
last 24 hours. This will become the concentrated area for this
evening and tonight with potential for one to two inches; however,
thunderstorms can certainly overachieve on precipitation amounts.
Thus locally higher amounts are anticipated. Models disagree on the
coverage for Wednesday which in turn challenges when chances will
move out. General consensus is that precipitation should be gone by
Thursday morning. Precipitation chances have been tweaked somewhat
to better account for the latest trends.

Cooler air moves in for Wednesday through Friday with Wednesday
being the coolest day of the week thanks to rain and cloud cover.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to range from 10 to 20 degrees
below seasonal normal on Wednesday when highs range from the lower
60s to mid 70s. Thursday and Friday should be a bit warmer as a
ridge moves in, but the temperatures are still forecast to be about
5 to 10 degrees below normal. Only minor changes were made to the
ongoing forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Highlights:

1) Weekend warm up

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms

After a cooler week, the weekend will offer a warm up but
essentially near the seasonal normal values (lower 80s). Models are
showing a couple of short waves through the weekend. This could
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. These waves don't look
very impressive at this point. There are chances for showers and
storms throughout the extended. If you have outdoor plans for the
weekend, stay tuned as changes are likely. Minor tweaks were made to
the extended part of the forecast as the ongoing one appeared mainly
representative.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Main aviation concern will be storms late this afternoon and
tonight.

Cold front currently stretches from near KPPF to near KPNC and has
become more stationary over the past couple of hours. Storms are
expected to develop along this feature first over western OK and
will likely try and develop to the northeast as the early evening
hours approach. Then after 00z they should become more numerous
across south central KS as the low level jet strengthens. So KCNU
and KICT will have the better storm chances, generally after 23z.
Some MVFR ceilings will also linger at KICT and KCNU this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  65  52  72 /  80  80  40   0
Hutchinson      59  63  49  72 /  80  80  30   0
Newton          60  64  51  71 /  80  80  40   0
ElDorado        61  66  52  70 /  80  80  50   0
Winfield-KWLD   63  71  54  71 /  80  80  60  10
Russell         54  63  45  74 /  70  80  20   0
Great Bend      55  61  46  72 /  80  80  20   0
Salina          58  63  49  74 /  60  70  20   0
McPherson       58  63  48  71 /  80  80  30   0
Coffeyville     66  74  57  73 /  80  80  70  10
Chanute         64  74  56  72 /  80  80  60  10
Iola            64  72  55  71 /  80  80  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  74  57  73 /  80  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for KSZ052-053-068>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
359 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Evening into Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening mainly
across south central and southeast Kansas. The main threats will be
golf ball sized hail and damaging winds to 60 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall will also become a threat in the evening and overnight
across southern Kansas where some flooding is possible. Check the
Flood Watch for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms will linger through Wednesday mainly
across south central and southeast Kansas. While severe storms are
not expected, a couple of strong storms with small hail and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. There is potential for localized
flooding to continue into even early Thursday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.
However, the risk for organized severe storms appears low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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