Tornado Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

094 
WWUS52 KGSP 051917
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
317 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

SCC023-091-051930-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220405T1930Z/
Chester SC-York SC-
317 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES...
    
At 317 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles north of Chester, or near Lowrys, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mcconnells around 330 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8126 3479 8129 3490 8121 3478 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 233DEG 22KT 3479 8124 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

8

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
210 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Out ahead of an approaching cold front, showers and thunderstorms
will return by Wednesday evening. In the wake of this front, well
below normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.
A warming trend brings temperatures back above normal early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Tuesday: The fcst remains pretty much on track
late this morning with a broad area of showers and thunderstorms
just to our SW. Still expecting the activity to move into our SW
zones by around noon with coverage across much of the CWA by mid-
afternoon.

Otherwise, guidance is initializing the MCV/shortwave fairly well,
and is good agreement on this bringing a rain shield/widespread
showers into our western zones around noon, then tracking across
the forecast area thru the aftn hours, exiting east around
7-9 PM. Despite it being fast-moving, rain rates could be high,
especially across the southern half of the forecast area. A plume
of 1.5"+ PWATs will surge into the area within a 50-60kt LLJ. The
CAMs all show some sort of meso-low tracking along a wedge front
that develops due to in-situ CAD. This boundary will likely set up
near our southern tier from Elbert, GA to Union, NC, where some
sbCAPE is uncovered. Some sort of QLCS may form over GA and the
northern edge affect these areas. So the Day 1 Convective slight
risk area makes sense. Scattered embedded tstms will be possible
across the whole area this aftn, but will be elevated, reducing
any severe threat. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat,
but isolated large hail and brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
thanks to good shear. Another concern will be locally heavy rainfall
that may cause minor flooding issues. The heaviest rain is expected
to be roughly along the I-85 corridor and south, where 1-2" and
locally higher amounts are expected. The short duration of the
rain seems to preclude a need for any Flood Watch. Otherwise, temps
will range from slightly below normal in the west, where the rain
moves in first, to slightly above normal along and east of I-77.
Guidance overall continues to be trend more abrupt with ending
precip this evening, with just a few lingering showers by midnight.
The NAM, in particular, is more bullish in veering flow to westerly
and drying out the low-levels overnight, which could scour out the
stratus and limit fog potential. I'm skeptical of this, and like
the GFS a little better, keeping more cloud cover in the area.
Regardless on how much clouds manage to clear out, continued mixing
and SWLY wind should limit fog potential. Lows will be about 10-15
deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday: Southwesterly flow aloft is expected on
Wednesday behind the departing Near Term system and an upper low and
trough deepening and expanding across the central CONUS. through the
period. A strong short wave rotating around the low crosses the area
Thursday and east of the area Thursday night.

At the sfc, a strong cold front associated with the upper trough
moves toward the area Wednesday, into the area Wednesday night, then
east of the area Thursday. Strengthening southerly flow develops
ahead of the cold front bringing scattered showers back into the
area Wednesday. Precip coverage, and convective chances, increase
from the west during the afternoon and overnight as the front moves
in. Previous guidance showed nothing to disrupt the moisture and
increasing instability from the south. However, some guidance is now
showing the potential for an MCS to form near the Gulf Coast and
outrun the front, disrupting moisture transport and development of
instability over our area. Other guidance still shows good
instability developing to go along with strong shear and developing
helicity. Still expect widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms to develop and spread across the area. The question
will be does enough surface based instability develop to tap the
shear and helicity for severe storms to develop. The forcing is
certainly strong enough for a QLCS type line to develop to our west
and move in during the evening and move across the area keeping some
severe potential. If the MCS does develop, that would likely keep
the threat there with isolated severe potential. If it doesn't and
instability does ramp up, then more discrete and possibly supercells
could form ahead of the front with more scattered severe potential.
Despite the uncertainty, SPC has retained a similar severe potential
in Day2 that was in Day 3. We agree with this assessment, as there is
still time to adjust up or down depending on model agreement. Either
way, any flood risk would be much lower than the near term.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday morning end by
afternoon as the front moves east of the area. Temps end up near to
a little above normal as colder air will be slower to move in behind
the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday: A large and deep upper low over the Mid
West at the start of the period on Friday moves to Quebec by
Saturday night. A deep trough extending from this low remains over
the area until the low moves east. A series of strong short waves
will rotate through the flow and across the area through the period.
The associated surface low follows a similar track. Deep
northwesterly flow will be over our area as surges of moisture and
forcing cross the area with the short waves. An anomalously cold air
mass will be over the area as well. The result will be periods of
northwest flow precipitation, mainly across the NC mountains,
falling mainly as snow above 3500 feet, with some snow possible in
the valleys at night. It is even possible that some of this precip
may break containment and spread over the NC foothills and Piedmont
Friday and again Saturday or Saturday night , but this is still
uncertain. Accumulating snow will be possible, especially above 3500
feet, but amounts amounts are still uncertain. Temps will be below
normal with Frost/Freeze a concern, especially Saturday night. An
upper ridge and dry high pressure build in on Sunday and only slowly
slide east on Monday. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend
putting temps back above normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
spread over the fcst area from the SW this afternoon. Expect lower
clouds to reach KCLT just after 18z with some embedded TSRA in a
fairly solid rain shield denoted with TEMPO groups for all sites
except KHKY and KAVL. KCLT will likely have the highest chances
for some gusty winds with the convection, with the other taf sites
still looking to be more stable. Winds will favor a SLY direction,
but toggle to more NLY across the Upstate as the rain moves in.
Winds aren't expect to go NWLY at KAVL until just after midnight.
Rain tapers off quickly later this afternoon and thru the evening
from west to east, but lingering low-lvl moisture could keep IFR
stratus around thru the night and into the overnight with all sites
expected to sct out and return to VFR by early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Partial clearing takes place Wednesday morning with a
return to VFR, before another cold front brings another round of
precipitation and restrictions to the area for Wed night. Clearing
conditions and gusty WLY to SWLY winds are expected behind the front
for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
110 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-061715-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
110 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected across the
area this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flooding may occur. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with
damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. The greatest threat
of flooding and severe storms is along and south of the Interstate 85
corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected late Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Some of these storms will be severe, with damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes possible. The greatest threat will be along
and west of the Interstate 26 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1219 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

SCZ010>012-019-051700-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-Greenwood SC-
1219 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Laurens,
southeastern Anderson, Abbeville and central Greenwood Counties
through 100 PM EDT...

At 1219 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Abbeville to 4 miles southeast
of Greenwood. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Honea Path, Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Joanna,
Due West, Cross Hill, Donalds and Cokesbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8262 3453 8245 3452 8237 3448 8232
      3451 8228 3443 8175 3435 8182 3430 8190
      3424 8191 3409 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 211DEG 30KT 3421 8254 3414 8209

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

SCZ009-013-014-051915-
York SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
239 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Chester, southwestern York and east central Union Counties through
315 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Union, or 5 miles north of Carlisle, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lockhart, Carlisle, Lowrys, Bullock Creek, Leeds and Santuc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8159 3484 8146 3485 8146 3494 8140
      3478 8115 3456 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 220DEG 27KT 3468 8147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8