Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm a few degrees and moisture increase early
this week as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest,
bringing a good chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon and
evening. The front settles south of our area on Tuesday, bringing
below normal temperatures that are expected to continue through the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday: an area of showers with some embedded
tstms have entered the central Appalachians, with the leading edge
moving into the northern NC mountains. This is associated with
a strong short wave riding thru NWLY flow aloft. There is still
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across western NC, with 35-40 kt
of effective shear. So this activity may largely survive over the
mountains into the NC Piedmont as we head into the overnight. The
high-end chc to likely PoPs look good, so no major changes with
this update. Most of the Upstate and NE GA will likely remain dry
overnight, with just a stray shower or two. Temps will be held
near to slightly above normal under plenty of mid and high clouds.

A stronger short wave drops into the area Monday, along with upper
divergence from a jet streak. This combined with an approaching
cold front and wave of low pressure will lead to a better overall
chance of convection on Monday. Moderate instability is expected
as the air mass continues to warm and dew points recover. Moderate
effective shear is also expected across the area. DCAPE remains
low, but the instability, forcing, and shear will lead to a better
chance of severe storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds will
be the main threat with multicells and bowing line segments, but an
isolated supercell is possible that would increase the hail threat.
Coverage will again favor the northern tier into the CLT Metro area
with scattered coverage slowly tapering off to the SW portions of
the CWFA. A low end excessive rainfall threat develops as storms
may be efficient rainfall producers and could train over portions
of the area. Highs will be near to just below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with broad upper ridging still dominating the Western CONUS
while fairly deep/broad upper trofing remains over the Eastern CONUS.
Over the next 24 hours or so, the trof is expected to morph into a
large, closed upper low centered over NY/PA and remain over the area
thru the end of the period late Wednesday. At the sfc, a weak cold
front will be moving east of our fcst area as the period begins early
Tuesday as the sfc low associated with the front slides further SE
and over our area. By late Tuesday, most of the latest model guidance
still has the low moving over the SE Coast with NLY low-level flow
setting up over our CWA as high pressure remains well to our north.
By late Wednesday, the sfc low is expected to lift NE and off the
Carolina Coast as moist, NLY, low-lvl flow persists over the fcst
area. As for the sensible fcst, no significant changes were made.
SPC still has most of our fcst area under a day 2 Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms which runs from 12z Monday through 12z
Tuesday, however the main severe threat appears to be before 00z
Tuesday. Otherwise, high temps should be roughly 5 to 10 degrees
below climatology on Tuesday and even cooler for Wednesday with
the CAD setting up over the area. It's looking like highs will
struggle to reach 80 degrees at most sites on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: the extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Thursday with a large, closed, upper low centered over New England
and persistent upper ridging to the west. Over the next couple of
days, the upper low is expected to gradually retreat back northward
as the broader upper trof expands further west and another closed
upper low likely develops just west of the Great Lakes. By the end
of the period next Saturday, most of the long-range guidance has
the sub-tropical upper ridge amplifying and spreading further west
increasing heights across the far SE CONUS.

At the surface, high pressure centered well to our north tries to
spread back into our fcst area and potentially establish a weak CAD
pattern. However, the latest guidance still suggests that any CAD
development will likely be weak at best. At the same time, the
evolution of the synoptic pattern is still fairly uncertain with
the operational models trying to develop multiple weak sfc lows to
our SW and move them eastward towards the SE Coast. Overall, a broad
area of deeper moisture will likely remain over much of the SE thru
the period. The severe/hydro threat still appears minimal thru the
period, although there's a good chance we will get precip each day.
The latest guidance has been trending a bit cooler early in the
period, with high temps struggling to hit 80 degrees on Thursday
and Friday and still 1 to 2 categories below climatology on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Plenty of SCT to BKN mid clouds are streaming
across the area and look to continue well into tonight. As a strong
short wave drops into the area this evening, bringing scattered
showers and possibly isolated TSRA across the area. KHKY and KCLT
are most likely to be affected but KAVL could be as well. Sky should
generally be SCT stratocu and BKN mid and high clouds, although a
low VFR cig is possible. There will likely be clouds again near
KAVL overnight, so fog chances are low but can't be ruled out,
especially if the cloudiness scatters out there. A stronger short
wave along with an upper jet moves across the area Monday with an
approaching frontal system. Expect a better chance of convection
across the area. Light wind overnight picks up from the SW Monday,
NW at KAVL.

Outlook: Chances for diurnal convection continue through the
week. Although trends are toward possible CAD Tuesday into
Wednesday, which may support more widespread low cigs and
showers. Otherwise, fog and low stratus will be most likely each
morning in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
507>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-152045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
433 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected from Monday afternoon
through late Monday evening, with a few possibly becoming severe.
Primary threats are straight-line damaging winds, isolated large
hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Localized heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, mainly in low lying, poor-drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-501>506-152045-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
433 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly north of
I-40. The main threats will be from cloud to ground lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected from Monday afternoon
through late Monday evening, with a few possibly becoming severe.
Primary threats are straight-line damaging winds, isolated large
hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Localized heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, mainly in low lying, poor-drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1110 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

NCZ035-501-502-150345-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
1110 PM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Alexander and
northeastern Caldwell Counties through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Boomer, or near Elkville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorsville, Stony Point, Hiddenite, Kings Creek, Vashti,
Millersville, Ellendale, Patterson and Little River In Alexander
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3607 8144 3607 8141
      3604 8140 3602 8135 3600 8133 3603 8127
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3605 8103 3599 8100 3596 8100 3586 8104
      3581 8108 3602 8162 3612 8162 3612 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 285DEG 22KT 3606 8141

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC