Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
230 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain control of our weather pattern for the rest of
the week. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage
generally over the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection has initiated across the sw/rn NC mtns with isol cells
remaining rather weak for now. Good sbCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg
is available yet no distinct triggers are noted outside of mtn top
convg. There remains a weak sfc bndry generally along the I-85
corridor where dCAPE values have increased over 1000 J/kg...so
storms that develop east of the mtns could produce stg/svr
downbursts later this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will wane
after sunset and the overnight period will see lowering winds, which
may set the stage of for dense fog development outside of longer
lasting debris clouds. The best chance for dense fog still looks to
be across the NC mtn valleys where drainage flow may aide in
formation.

The overall synoptic pattern does not change much Thu. The area will
remain in a general weakness within the ulvl ridge as subTrop high
nudges in more from the east bringing weak energy traversing the wrn
periphery and the wrn part of the FA. Still, the sfc ridge will
maintain decent llvl moist adv and allow for afternoon storms across
most locales as sfc temps rise to the m90s and dewpoints remain
elevated in sw/ly flow. Soundings are similar to this afternoon,
with modest sbCAPE seen on the NAM while the overall column flow
remains quite weak. With little triggering, expect similar pulse or
multi-cell storms, a few possibly reaching severe levels, moving
slowly north and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wed: Still expecting the Bermuda High to strengthen
at the end of the week. Weak troughing associated with northern
CONUS wave train will persist across the Appalachians on Friday,
but heights rise slightly and contours flatten north of the
region by Saturday. The zone of most obvious convergence on the
periphery of the Bermuda ridge looks to remain to our north,
so can't say that will have much of an effect on our precip
chances. Diurnal convection will remain the norm, with reduced
partial thicknesses supporting a return to near-normal temps. Flow
thru most of the atmospheric column will remain southerly to
southwesterly, so initiation generally should remain focused over
the mountains. However, wind speeds aloft will be weak enough
it is hard to be confident that propagation will be preferred in
any one direction. Thus we can make a case for Piedmont initiation
along outflows from the mountain activity, and perhaps from the sea
breeze in the late aftns or early evenings.  Sfc-midlevel theta-e
lapses will be seasonably large perhaps simply as a result of
high sfc moisture; soundings don't depict a clear deep dry layer.
Thinking the threat of isolated damaging microbursts is about
average for this time of year, with possibility of localized
excessive rainfall continuing from high PWATs and slow storm motion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wed: Trough moving thru central/eastern Canada Sunday
will subsequently begin to dig into the NE CONUS. Bermuda ridge
appears to begin weakening Sunday as a result of this progression,
and furthermore a very weak inverted trough may move in from the
Atlantic. That suggests an uptick in diurnal convective chances
that day, and the best overall chance of the period. Meanwhile,
Rockies ridge will strengthen; combined with the continued dig of
the trough into our region, some degree of pattern change appears
in store by the middle of next week. Models do not yet agree well
on when the trough arrives, but would appear poised to enhance
convective coverage when it does. Given the distant time range
and limited confidence, have depicted PoPs falling back a little
for Mon-Tue but still a little above climo.  Temps continue near
to just below climo, with the threat for isolated microbursts or
excessive rain continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds continue this afternoon outside of
or near deep convection. The model trend has been to keep a better
storm potential across the NC terminals, esp at KAVL this afternoon n
and evening. So, have Prob30s for these sites, except VCTS at KHKY.
Less convective confidence for the SC terminals, but still think a
VCTS is warranted with weak bndry lingering just south of I-85.
Morning VSBY/CIG issues are possible at KAVL, with IFR or lower
conds possible before daybreak lasting a few hrs. Winds will remain
generally light and continue to veer se/ly to sw/ly across the
non/mtns as an Atl high nudges in from the southeast. Winds at KAVl
will remain channeled light nw/ly.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected to persist
through late week. Fog and low stratus may develop each morning
in the mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the
previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ010>013-019-101>109-041000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains and foothills of North Carolina, and upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours possible. A few of the storms could become
severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. The storms should
diminish gradually during the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-014-041000-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Chester-
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Piedmont of North
Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and evening, with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours possible. One or two of the storms could become
severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. The storms should
diminish gradually during the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
412 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

SCZ012-019-032045-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-
412 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Laurens
and Greenwood Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Greenwood, or 10 miles southwest of Ninety Six
Historic Site, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Cokesbury, Hodges, Lake Greenwood State Park,
Lake Greenwood, Greenwood State Park, Ninety Six Historic Site,
Waterloo and Promised Land.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3399 8221
      3402 8224 3430 8225 3438 8211 3424 8192
      3420 8194 3418 8191 3416 8191 3414 8189
      3402 8196 3400 8199 3397 8201 3396 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 197DEG 12KT 3401 8211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
426 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

GAZ029-032100-
Elbert GA-
426 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Elbert
County through 500 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Elberton, or near Nancy Hart State Park, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton, Lake Russell, Fortsonia and Rice
Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8284 3398 8286 3401 8291
      3401 8292 3402 8294 3403 8294 3403 8295
      3413 8268 3398 8264 3399 8266 3398 8270
      3398 8273 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 156DEG 7KT 3394 8276

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

SCZ011-019-032115-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
449 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Abbeville and northwestern Greenwood Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Greenwood, or near Hodges, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Ware Shoals, Due West, Cokesbury, Hodges and Shoals
Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8247 3440 8223 3439 8223 3439 8222
      3438 8221 3437 8219 3435 8217 3433 8217
      3433 8214 3420 8211 3413 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 156DEG 7KT 3424 8225

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH