Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
629 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain control of our weather pattern for the rest of
the week. We can expect predominately afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage
generally over the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM EDT Wednesday: Convective coverage has become more
expansive across the CFWA with the exception of the NC piedmont.
Expect the convection to continue spreading further north into
portions of the GSP and CLT metro areas. Outflow boundaries have
been indicated via radar across the Upstate and should help carry
this activity through around sunset before nocturnal cooling settles
in.

Otherwise, good sbCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg is available yet no
distinct triggers are noted outside of mtn top convg. There remains
a weak sfc bndry generally along the I-85 corridor where dCAPE
values have increased over 1000 J/kg...so storms that develop east
of the mtns could produce stg/svr downbursts later this afternoon.
Thunderstorm activity will wane after sunset and the overnight
period will see lowering winds, which may set the stage of for dense
fog development outside of longer lasting debris clouds. The best
chance for dense fog still looks to be across the NC mtn valleys
where drainage flow may aide in formation.

The overall synoptic pattern does not change much Thu. The area will
remain in a general weakness within the ulvl ridge as subTrop high
nudges in more from the east bringing weak energy traversing the wrn
periphery and the wrn part of the FA. Still, the sfc ridge will
maintain decent llvl moist adv and allow for afternoon storms across
most locales as sfc temps rise to the m90s and dewpoints remain
elevated in sw/ly flow. Soundings are similar to this afternoon,
with modest sbCAPE seen on the NAM while the overall column flow
remains quite weak. With little triggering, expect similar pulse or
multi-cell storms, a few possibly reaching severe levels, moving
slowly north and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wed: Still expecting the Bermuda High to strengthen
at the end of the week. Weak troughing associated with northern
CONUS wave train will persist across the Appalachians on Friday,
but heights rise slightly and contours flatten north of the
region by Saturday. The zone of most obvious convergence on the
periphery of the Bermuda ridge looks to remain to our north,
so can't say that will have much of an effect on our precip
chances. Diurnal convection will remain the norm, with reduced
partial thicknesses supporting a return to near-normal temps. Flow
thru most of the atmospheric column will remain southerly to
southwesterly, so initiation generally should remain focused over
the mountains. However, wind speeds aloft will be weak enough
it is hard to be confident that propagation will be preferred in
any one direction. Thus we can make a case for Piedmont initiation
along outflows from the mountain activity, and perhaps from the sea
breeze in the late aftns or early evenings.  Sfc-midlevel theta-e
lapses will be seasonably large perhaps simply as a result of
high sfc moisture; soundings don't depict a clear deep dry layer.
Thinking the threat of isolated damaging microbursts is about
average for this time of year, with possibility of localized
excessive rainfall continuing from high PWATs and slow storm motion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wed: Trough moving thru central/eastern Canada Sunday
will subsequently begin to dig into the NE CONUS. Bermuda ridge
appears to begin weakening Sunday as a result of this progression,
and furthermore a very weak inverted trough may move in from the
Atlantic. That suggests an uptick in diurnal convective chances
that day, and the best overall chance of the period. Meanwhile,
Rockies ridge will strengthen; combined with the continued dig of
the trough into our region, some degree of pattern change appears
in store by the middle of next week. Models do not yet agree well
on when the trough arrives, but would appear poised to enhance
convective coverage when it does. Given the distant time range
and limited confidence, have depicted PoPs falling back a little
for Mon-Tue but still a little above climo.  Temps continue near
to just below climo, with the threat for isolated microbursts or
excessive rain continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds continue this evening outside of or
near deep convection. The model trend has been to keep a better
storm potential across the NC terminals, esp at KAVL this afternoon
and evening. So, have tempos for these sites, except VCTS at KHKY.
Less convective confidence for the SC terminals, but still think a
VCTS is warranted with weak bndry lingering just south of I-85.
Morning VSBY/CIG issues are possible at KAVL, with IFR or lower
conds possible before daybreak lasting a few hrs. Winds will remain
generally light and continue to veer se/ly to sw/ly across the
non/mtns as an Atl high nudges in from the southeast. Winds at KAVl
will remain channeled light nw/ly.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected to persist
through late week. Fog and low stratus may develop each morning
in the mountain valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the
previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CAC/SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...CAC/SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ010>013-019-101>109-041000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains and foothills of North Carolina, and upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours possible. A few of the storms could become
severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. The storms should
diminish gradually during the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-014-041000-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Chester-
600 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Piedmont of North
Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and evening, with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours possible. One or two of the storms could become
severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. The storms should
diminish gradually during the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
501 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

GAZ029-032130-
Elbert GA-
501 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Elbert
County through 530 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Elberton, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elberton, Middleton, Dewy Rose, Sweet City and Fortsonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294
      3403 8294 3404 8295 3404 8298 3408 8300
      3408 8301 3410 8304 3411 8303 3424 8288
      3404 8271 3397 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 135DEG 9KT 3403 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NCZ049-032230-
Yancey NC-
557 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Yancey
County through 630 PM EDT...

At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Burnsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burnsville, Green Mountain, Swiss, Micaville and Celo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8227 3599 8225 3601 8225 3601 8224
      3583 8220 3578 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236
      3582 8241 3587 8243 3590 8245 3591 8249
      3593 8250 3602 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 154DEG 3KT 3587 8234

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
616 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

SCZ010-104-105-032245-
Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Greater Pickens SC-
616 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Anderson, southwestern Pickens and east central Oconee Counties
through 645 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clemson, or near Central, moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Central, Pendleton, Liberty, Norris, Six Mile, Lake
Keowee, Keowee Toxaway State Park and Sandy Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8275 3473 8306 3494 8287 3494 8285
      3472 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 128DEG 15KT 3471 8275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NCZ082-032300-
Union NC-
633 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Union
County through 700 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Monroe, or 4 miles northeast of Buford, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Mineral Springs, Jaars and Trinity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8044 3482 8050 3482 8080 3483 8079
      3501 8060 3482 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 132DEG 7KT 3481 8057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NCZ065-SCZ103-106-032315-
Henderson NC-Central Greenville SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
645 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Henderson and northeastern Greenville Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or over Tigerville, moving
northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Tigerville, Lake Robinson, Pleasant Ridge State
Park, Travelers Rest, Paris Mountain State Park, Tuxedo, North Saluda
Reservoir, Glassy Mountain and Cleveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8259 3504 8259 3504 8260 3506 8260
      3507 8259 3507 8257 3508 8258 3525 8241
      3520 8235 3519 8236 3519 8235 3508 8223
      3494 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 127DEG 6KT 3506 8237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

NCZ051-058-032315-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
652 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Swain
and northeastern Graham Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Robbinsville, or near Fontana Lake, moving
northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Fontana Lake, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Fontana Village, Lake Santeetlah, Smoky
Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Stecoah, Tapoco and Cheoah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8396 3546 8395 3547 8393 3547 8392
      3552 8388 3553 8382 3555 8379 3556 8377
      3556 8375 3557 8370 3536 8361 3529 8381
      3545 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 151DEG 13KT 3540 8376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH