Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1125 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level high will slowly move westward through the
weekend. Hot and humid conditions continue through Friday with
relief coming by the weekend. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected through Friday afternoon with dry conditions through
the weekend. The hot ridge will build back over our region through
the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ad of 1055 am: Temperatures and heat indices are slightly cooler
today than yesterday at this time, and while this trend is generally
expected to carry throughout the day, much of the foothills and
Piedmont is expected to see max H.I. values of around 105. This
combined with the cumulative impact of the 4th consecutive day of
unusually hot weather prompted us, in collaboration with neighboring
offices to go ahead with another foothills/piedmont Heat Advisory
for this afternoon.

In terms of the afternoon/evening convective risk, hot/muggy surface
conditions combined with unusually steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8
C/km are again resulting in strong morning sbCAPE > 3500 J/kg across
much of the CWA, and we're actually already seeing a couple of small
showers across the southern Appalachians. On the other hand, much
like yesterday, forecast soundings indicate weak CIN and LFCs above
7000 ft through much of the day for locations east of the mtns. The
actual coverage of convection underperformed with respect to the
forecast yesterday (esp outside the mtns), likely due to a
combination of the above factors and apparently due to LL shear
being just a bit too weak to support clustering along cold pools.
With today's forecast soundings showing similar shear parameters to
yesterday, such clustering would again appear to be unlikely, and we
are opting to advertise near-climo PoPs (20-30% foothills/ Piedmont,
30-50% mtns) this afternoon/evening. A few pulse severe storms
producing mainly damaging wet microbursts can again be expected.
Convective activity wanes this evening with min temps remaining well
abv normal overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday: As the upper ridge that has been parked over
the area retrogrades through the period, an upper low moves into New
England carving a trough over the East Coast. This creates height
falls over the area and allows a short wave to cross the area
Friday. In response, a cold front drops south across the area. The
very unstable air mass remains over the area ahead of the front with
very high DCAPE values. This will lead to isolated to scattered
convection during the afternoon. A few severe storms will be
possible as well. Highs will again be near records, but dew points,
although high, should mix out during the afternoon with developing
northwesterly flow. This should keep heat index values below Heat
Advisory levels, but values over 100 are likely.

Cooler and drier high pressure builds in on Saturday with gusty
northerly winds. Highs will still be a few degrees above normal
outside of the mountains, but a few degrees below normal over the
mountains. Dew points, however, will be much lower dropping into the
50s. This will keep heat index values near or even slightly below
observed temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thursday: Sunday will be a welcome relief to the
previous few days with northwest flow over the area between a strong
ridge over the central CONUS and deep upper low and associated
trough over the East Coast. Highs will actually be a couple of
degrees below normal with afternoon dew points in the 40s most
locations.

Unfortunately, the ridge begins to move east back over the area
through Wednesday as the East Coast trough moves east. This results
in increasing thickness values with a strong warming trend. Highs
will once again threaten 100 by Wednesday. Dew points will slowly
increase as well; however, they only reach the lower 60s by
Wednesday. This will keep afternoon heat index values near the
actual temps. While that will still be hot, they don't look to
threaten Heat Advisory levels for now.

Have continued the dry forecast through the period as any frontal
systems will be stalled to our south or moving east well to our
north with a capped atmosphere limiting the potential for deep
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conds continue overnight with some
possibility of IFR VSBY at KAVL arnd daybreak. Confidence is too low
to include in TAF attm. Another convective day in store, with storms
most likely affecting KAVL and KHKY. At KCLT a isolated to scattered
storms may approach from the NW, so have added VCSH into the late
afternoon. Winds remain fairly weak underneath large scale ridge
with a general s/ly to sw/ly flow thru the daytime period.

Outlook: Afternoon and evening convection will be possible through
the end of the work week. Mountain valley fog will be possible each
morning and in areas where heavy rain falls the previous day. Drier
conditions are expected for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1934     62 1961     69 1939     43 1933
   KCLT      99 2015     62 1965     75 1998     52 1961
   KGSP      98 1981     65 1979     73 1914     50 1917

RECORDS FOR 06-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1936     61 1927     68 2016     40 1917
                                        1939
   KCLT     100 1943     68 1927     75 1881     53 1917
   KGSP     101 1887     67 1927     75 1981     49 1974

RECORDS FOR 06-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      94 1964     65 1947     68 1924     49 1992
                                                    1985
   KCLT     100 2015     71 1958     76 1888     53 2003
   KGSP      99 2006     66 1947     77 1924     53 1992
                1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ101>103-170830-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area today. A few of
the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat,
but large hail is also possible. A few of the storms could contain
heavy rainfall as well, leading to ponding of water on roadways and
low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area on Friday. A
few of the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main
threat, but large hail is also possible. A few of the storms could
contain heavy rainfall as well, leading to ponding of water on
roadways and low lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-170830-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area today. A few of
the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat,
but large hail is also possible. A few of the storms could contain
heavy rainfall as well, leading to ponding of water on roadways and
low lying areas. Hot conditions will continue, with many locations
seeing heat index values of 100 to 105 during the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across the area Friday. A few of
the storms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat,
but large hail is also possible. A few of the storms could contain
heavy rainfall as well, leading to ponding of water on roadways and
low lying areas. Hot conditions will continue, with many locations
seeing heat index values of 100 to 105 during the afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NCZ507-508-510-161815-
Greater Rutherford NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
151 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rutherford
and north central Polk Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 151 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Rutherfordton, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Thermal City and
Union Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8198 3537 8193 3534 8217 3552 8212
      3553 8211 3554 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 354DEG 9KT 3547 8205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

NCZ052-064-161845-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-
215 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Transylvania and southeastern Haywood Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Brevard, or near Graveyard Fields, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Graveyard Fields, Mount Pisgah, Looking Glass, Black Balsam Area,
B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To Mount Pisgah and Cruso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8286 3543 8276 3543 8275 3534 8266
      3520 8281 3528 8292 3530 8292 3531 8293
      3531 8295 3532 8296 3534 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 302DEG 7KT 3537 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

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