Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
750 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level high will remain over the area into Thursday
before slowly moving westward by Friday. This maintains hot and
humid conditions until the end of the work week. Unsettled weather
will continue, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible
each afternoon. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are
expected for the weekend. The hot ridge will build back over our
region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday: Reduced pops again across the area, but
very little other changes to the public forecast, mainly just
changes for aviation parameters this evening.

Otherwise, fog and low stratus will develop in the usual mountain
valleys, and may be a bit more widespread than the past couple of
mornings depending upon how much rain falls this afternoon/evening.

More of the same tomorrow, with another day of very hot/muggy and
unstable conditions expected. While the upper anticyclone is
expected to be undergoing a retrogression into the TN Valley
tomorrow, we are somewhat skeptical of the slight "cool down"
proffered by most statistical guidance sources. As such, we've gone
warmer than most guidance sources, which is bringing the Heat Index
forecast closer to Advisory criteria. Nevertheless, most locations
don't quite get there, and after collaboration with neighboring
offices, we have opted to hold off on issuing a new Advisory for
tomorrow, but this will be subject to close scrutiny by later
shifts. Otherwise, a preponderance of guidance suggests ~climo
coverage of diurnal convection tomorrow, and PoPs will reflect such
(i.e., 40-50% across the mtns, 20-40% elsewhere). Strong instability
and downdraft CAPE will again support a threat of wet microbursts
and marginally severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday: The pesky upper ridge that has helped
produce an abundance of heat and humidity over the past few days
will gradually retrograde westward through the forecast period. This
is in response to an upper trough that slides from the Great Lakes
and sets up shop over northeastern CONUS by the second half of the
short-term. An attendant frontal boundary will backdoor the CFWA
on Friday with PWAT values >1.50", good CAPE and DCAPE values, and
~20 kts of 0-3 km bulk shear out ahead of the boundary, expect for
convection to get going with the possibility of organized convection
along cold pool boundaries Friday afternoon/evening. LFC levels
seem higher than Thursday, so coverage could remain isolated, but
weather changes, so we can't be caught off guard. With all of the
right ingredients in place, it's easy to see why SPC placed the
entire CFWA in a marginal risk for severe weather on Friday. The
other weather headline for Friday will of course be the heat. With
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, expect for
heat indexes to reach over 100 F, but a downsloping component could
help keep most locations from reaching Heat Advisory criteria as
dew points should mix out in this case. Temperatures will remain
10-15 degrees above normal as 590+ dm thicknesses remain overhead.

The fropa late Friday will filter in "cooler" and drier air as
deep layer northwesterly flow enters the region. Thus, the pattern
Friday night and Saturday will be similar to a post-frontal regime
as broad high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes region and
the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls along the Gulf Coast. As
a result, "cooler" temperatures will be in store as gradual height
falls enter the CFWA and values will be only slightly above normal
on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday: Slight cooldown expected on Sunday as
an omega blocking pattern gets underway with a strong upper low
over the northeastern CONUS and Northwest Pacific, while a deep
upper level ridge sets up shop over the entire MS Valley and Great
Plains. High pressure will nosedive into the region from the Great
Lakes region Sunday into Monday. On Sunday, a northerly component
will be in store to go with lower thicknesses from the upper low
to the northeast, which should keep temperatures around normal for
highs. The area of high pressure should slip offshore by the early
part of next week. Model guidance show a return flow and the upper
ridge slowly propagating back eastward as the northeastern CONUS
upper low lifts into Atlantic Canada. The GFS and ECMWF differ in
their position of the anticyclone. The ECMWF pushes the center of
it over the Southeast, while the GFS struggles to place the center
of it past the lower MS Valley. Either way, higher thicknesses will
enter the region and should allow temperatures to rebound really
well, especially by next Tuesday. The ECMWF comes in slightly hotter
and temperatures from Tuesday through the end of the period with
values in the mid to upper 90s for most locations. Temperatures
could flirt with the 100 degree mark for highs outside of the
mountains as well. On the flip side, dew points should remain in
the low to mid 60s. Thus, heat indices should remain below Heat
Advisory criteria, but can't be ruled out. The heat returns during
the extended period, but the weather remains mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at TAF time, with convection diminished
across most of the area and not expected to impact any of the TAF
sites. Did not see any convection at KAVL so moved the previous
prevailing IFR vsby to a TEMPO group, and instead went prevailing
MVFR but confidence is low. Lgt/vrb winds overnight trending SE and
then picking up out of the SW by tomorrow afternoon. Not confident
on convection chances so included PROB30 only for KAVL.

Outlook: Afternoon and evening convection will be possible through
the end of the work week. Mountain valley fog will be possible each
morning and in areas where heavy rain falls the previous day. Drier
conditions are expected for the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1952     63 1917     68 2004     42 1933
                                        1969
                                        1958
   KCLT      99 2015     60 1884     75 1998     51 1933
                                        1981
   KGSP      97 1981     69 1965     74 1918     51 1904
                1885        1906

RECORDS FOR 06-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1934     62 1961     69 1939     43 1933
   KCLT      99 2015     62 1965     75 1998     52 1961
   KGSP      98 1981     65 1979     73 1914     50 1917

RECORDS FOR 06-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1936     61 1927     68 2016     40 1917
                                        1939
   KCLT     100 1943     68 1927     75 1881     53 1917
   KGSP     101 1887     67 1927     75 1981     49 1974

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ035-036-056-
     068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1121 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035-036-056-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-161530-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Catawba-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1121 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the very hot conditions, scattered thunderstorms will
develop across the area today. A few of the storms are expected to
become severe, with brief damaging wind gusts being the main threat.
Large hail is also possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and
locally heavy rainfall can occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Thursday and
Friday. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging winds
the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-
161530-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1121 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area today. A few of
the storms are expected to become severe, with brief damaging wind
gusts being the main threat. Large hail is also possible. Frequent
cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall can occur with
any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Thursday and
Friday. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging winds
the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ037-057-161530-
Davie-Rowan-
1121 AM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Very hot conditions are expected across the northwest piedmont this
afternoon. Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range are expected. In
addition, scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
today. A few of the storms are expected to become severe, with brief
damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Large hail is also
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall can occur with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area Thursday and
Friday. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging winds
the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

NCZ049-050-503-505-152315-
McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-
639 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central McDowell,
southeastern Mitchell and southeastern Yancey Counties through 715 PM
EDT...

At 639 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Spruce Pine, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, B.R.
Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, North Cove, Busick, Pleasant
Gardens, Celo, Little Switzerland and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8204 3593 8201 3579 8191 3567 8209
      3582 8228 3598 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 137DEG 6KT 3581 8208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
640 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

NCZ033-050-152315-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
640 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Mitchell and southwestern Avery Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Spruce Pine, or 5 miles east of Bakersville, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersville, Linville Falls, Bandana, Ingalls and Altamont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8194 3595 8195 3596 8201 3597 8219
      3609 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 001DEG 15KT 3601 8206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 NNW MARION            35.72N 82.02W
06/15/2022  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED OFF OF HANKINS AND FISH HATCHERY
            ROADS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
659 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

NCZ033-050-152330-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
659 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Mitchell and northwestern Avery Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 658 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Newland, or near Elk Park, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elk Park and Minneapolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8196 3606 8213 3615 8217 3615 8214
      3611 8213 3611 8210 3610 8208 3611 8206
      3613 8205 3612 8203 3624 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 213DEG 11KT 3615 8201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
827 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

GAZ010-017-160100-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-
827 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Habersham
and western Rabun Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Clayton, or near Lakemont, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Tiger, Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lake Burton, Lakemont,
Tallulah Gorge State Park, Black Rock Mountain State Park, Batesville
and Seed Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3488 8366 3490 8363
      3491 8363 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355
      3496 8355 3485 8330 3468 8338 3473 8362
      3477 8363 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 110DEG 19KT 3480 8343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG