Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022

Tonight...a 1015mb surface high settles over the area allowing for
some light winds and lower dewpoints under a generally clear sky. As
a result, low temperatures will be colder compared to last night
ranging from the middle 30s to around 40 in far eastern Colorado to
the lower to upper 40s east of the Colorado/Kansas border.

Friday-Friday night...as the surface high slowly moves out of the
area, return flow around it will increase winds (from the south)
across far eastern Colorado in the late morning through afternoon
hours with gusts up to 35 mph or so expected. The upper level flow
becomes zonal and with a lack of appreciable moisture in the
atmosphere dry conditions are currently expected. High temperatures
are forecast to reach the middle 70s to lower 80s with low
temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper level flow shifts to the
northwest with a bit better moisture profile in the 700-500mb level.
There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms across the far
eastern portions of the forecast area during the night. High
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s with
low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday...lots of sunshine expected with no precipitation. High
temperatures are similar to Saturday with readings in the middle 70s
to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Thu May 12 2022

To start the extended period northwesterly flow will be over the
central High Plains with weak ridge over the southern High Plains. A
trough develops over the SW CONUS on Monday with a few shortwaves
developing. Forecast soundings indicate severe weather could be
possible on Monday with ample shear and CAPE appearing present at
this time; continue to check back for future forecasts as we get a
better handle on where the best location for storms develops. High
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s across the area with
overnight lows falling into the 50s.

Tuesday, the trough moves further to the east with another shortwave
ejecting over the area with thunderstorms again possible across the
area. High temperatures look to be similar to Monday with
afternoon highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s over the area. The remainder of the period looks to see
mainly zonal flow with some perturbations potentially developing
off of the Front Range; however at this time cannot ascertain any
confidence into if any hazards will become of this. The potential
does exist for some storms to develop as moisture looks to be
present across the area. High temperatures look to be constant for
the end of the week with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southwest
to northwest winds gusting up to 35kts are expected from taf
issuance through the afternoon, subsiding below 12kts from the
northwest by 02z. Winds become light and variable from 06z-14z
then briefly become north then southeast under 10kts during the
morning Friday.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southwest
to west winds gusting up to 35kts are expected from taf issuance
through the afternoon, becoming west to northwest at speeds up to
10kts overnight through Friday morning. There is a small chance of
a thunderstorm impacting the terminal, mainly from 17z-19z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TT
AVIATION...99

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