Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
502 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

Tonight...at 500mb low pressure was forecast to reside near Las
Vegas with southwest flow ahead of it. A narrow stripe of moisture
in the 700-500mb layer is expected to lift north-northeast out of
New Mexico and into the eastern 1/3 of the forecast area this
evening supporting some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
Dry conditions are expected by midnight. Low temperatures are
expected to range from the middle to upper 50s in far eastern
Colorado to the lower to upper 60s east of the CO/KS border. Breezy
to windy southerly winds are expected through the night.

Thursday-Thursday night...the upper low center is expected to take
on a negative tilt while lifting northeast into Wyoming by
afternoon, continuing northeast toward southeast Montana by the end
of the day then toward north central North Dakota overnight. At the
surface, breezy to windy conditions will continue through the day,
decreasing quickly after midnight. High temperatures are expected to
range from the upper 70s to middle 80s in far eastern Colorado to
the upper 80s to middle 90s along and east of the CO/KS border. Low
temperatures fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s. There will be a
threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in the early
afternoon through evening hours generally east of a line from McCook
to Hill City.

Friday-Friday night...surface high pressure resides over the area in
the morning allowing for rather light winds. In the afternoon the
surface high slowly moves east allowing for some strong southerly
winds across far eastern Colorado. The upper level flow becomes
zonal and with a lack of appreciable moisture in the atmosphere dry
conditions are currently expected. High temperatures are forecast to
reach the middle 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday...the upper level flow shifts slightly to the northwest
with a bit better moisture profile in the 700-500mb level. However,
at this time it looks to be dry. High temperatures are expected to
be in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

An upper ridge will be over the central CONUS through the long
term period. However, a series of weak shortwave troughs will
move through the ridge axis, resulting in occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal
throughout the period, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in
the 40s and 50s. Thunderstorm chances will occur each afternoon
and evening beginning on Monday and continuing through Wednesday.
Due to the weak overall forcing, coverage should be fairly
limited. However, instability and shear parameters appear to be
sufficient for at least a marginal risk for severe storms should
any develop.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue to
be a daily concern in the long term period, with lowest afternoon
humidity in northeast Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas
border area. Breezy southeast winds are forecast to develop on
Monday and persist through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 458 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period.
The main interest is another round of LLWS though it may not be as
strong as last night. The LLWS looks to take shape around 4Z and
will last till near 12Z though KGLD may see the LLWS drop off
closer to 10Z. Otherwise, the severe storms currently look to be
more to the southeast of both terminals with a very small chance
of either terminal seeing a storm. Winds will remain southerly
through 12Z, but begin to become westerly as a front moves through
during the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

Record and near record high temperatures are expected at the
following locations today:

Hill City........96 degrees set back in 1962
Burlington.......93 degrees set back in 1963
Colby............92 degrees set back in 2005
Yuma.............95 degrees set back in 1962

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079-080.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122200-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
357 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022 /457 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Red Flag warning remains in effect this afternoon for portions of
the area, mainly in eastern Colorado and adjacent Kansas border
counties.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon and
evening, mainly along and east of a line from Tribune to Oakley to
Norton. Brief instances of damaging wind are the primary hazard.

Wildfire smoke originating from north central New Mexico may impact
areas generally west of a line from Leoti to Norton overnight. Air
quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Isolated severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on Thursday, mainly east of a line from McCook, Nebraska to
Gove, Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect on Thursday, mainly west of a line
from Hitchcock county Nebraska to Logan county Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via social media or
telephone.

Vincent

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