Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Hastings, NE

May 15, 2022Buffalo County, Kearney County, Phelps County, Nebraska

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2022, 4:27 AM CDT for Buffalo County, Kearney County, Phelps County, Nebraska. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2022, 4:27 AM CDT (09:27 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2022, 5:15 AM CDT
In force
48 min
Issued by
NWS Hastings, NE
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Buffalo County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 324 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2022-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1284 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2022-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 55 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1284 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2058 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 2:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:55 AM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
255 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Tonight Through This Morning...
We have an active night with thunderstorms ongoing early this
morning at the time of this forecast discussion and thus will keep
things a bit shorter than normal.

Our biggest immediate concern is the possibility for severe
thunderstorms through mid morning in association with a short
wave/vort max that will be sliding across the forecast area.
Forecast models have been in good agreement since at least
yesterday that we would see this uptick in thunderstorms during
the early morning hours including the possibility for severe
thunderstorms. However, MUCAPE values are lower in the more recent
model runs, generally around or below 1000 J/KG, so higher end
severe thunderstorms seems less likely. However, the
shear/instability combination is still sufficient for at least
marginally severe thunderstorms capable of 60 mph wind gusts and
half dollar sized hail. Thunderstorms will track southeast across
the forecast area. Not everyone will see storms and the better
chances will be from around the Tri-Cities and points east and
southeast from there. Thunderstorms should be tracking southeast
out of our forecast area by late morning.

This Afternoon Into Tonight...
Clouds will start to clear out by early afternoon, but it will be
cooler today behind this storm system and have lowered high
temperatures a bit into the lower 70s for south central Nebraska
to the mid and upper 70s across north central Kansas.

Monday...
This should be a dry and warm day as an upper ridge slides east
across the region. Highs for most areas will be in the lower 80s.

Monday night through Tuesday night...
The upper pattern will become more zonal but with a vort max or
two passing through and several models indicating chances for
thunderstorms. The better storm chances will be during the
overnight periods with a little bit of low level jet support.
Between Monday night and Tuesday night, it currently seems that
Tuesday night will have the better chance at a more widespread
precipitation event and favor eastern zones.

Wednesday through Friday...
A large upper level trough should take shape across the western
United States, which would pump warm moist air into the plains.
Therefore, highs should climb into the 80s on Wednesday and
especially on Thursday. However, a cold front could knock highs
back down again into the 60s or lower 70s by Friday and Saturday.
We could see a chance for precipitation with that cold front
Thursday night. Rain chances could linger into the weekend
depending on the strength and progression of the upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

The primary aviation concern will center around the chance for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms beginning in the hours right
around dawn and then lasting through at least mid morning. Skies
should begin to clear out during the afternoon hours, but could
flirt with MVFR ceilings at times this morning. The light east
wind early this morning will become more northeasterly towards
dawn and then northerly this afternoon, but should remain rather
light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 4:09 AM CDT, 18 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 3:31 AM CDT, 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

NEZ084-085-150900-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
331 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Franklin and Webster Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Campbell, or 25 miles southwest of Hastings, moving southeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Campbell around 335 AM CDT.
  Bladen around 340 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Red Cloud, Cowles
and Guide Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9834 4005 9857 4025 9900 4035 9889
      4035 9828 4007 9827 4000 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 310DEG 42KT 4035 9877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Wesely
Local storm report, May 15, 3:45 AM CDT, 42 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 15, 3:48 AM CDT, 39 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 15, 4:00 AM CDT, 27 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 15, 4:14 AM CDT, 13 minutes before
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Special weather statement, May 15, 4:19 AM CDT, 8 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 7:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls30 min
May 15, 2:13 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhelps32 min
May 15, 2:46 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDKearney29 min
May 15, 3:04 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDAdams, Kearney26 min
May 15, 3:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDAdams, Kearney35 min
May 15, 3:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDFillmore27 min
May 15, 3:20 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDDawson25 min
May 15, 3:31 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDWebster29 min
May 15, 3:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDDawson, Gosper, Phelps48 min
May 15, 3:48 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls27 min
May 15, 4:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDWebster30 min
May 15, 4:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhelps46 min
May 15, 4:19 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls, Thayer26 min
May 15, 4:31 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDGosper29 min
May 15, 5:02 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDGosper28 min
May 15, 5:05 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDFranklin10 min
May 15, 5:15 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDFranklin, Webster30 min
May 15, 5:30 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhelps30 min
May 15, 5:35 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDDawson25 min
May 15, 5:41 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls, Webster34 min
May 15, 5:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDDawson34 min
May 15, 5:59 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDKearney, Phelps31 min
May 15, 6:07 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls23 min
May 15, 6:25 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDKearney35 min
May 15, 6:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhelps33 min
May 15, 6:57 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDKearney33 min
May 15, 7:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDWebster30 min
May 15, 7:23 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDNuckolls37 min
May 14, 7:04 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDSmith26 min
May 14, 7:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGIDSmith23 min
May 14, 7:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDSmith29 min
May 14, 7:52 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDRepublic23 min
May 14, 7:59 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDPhillips46 min
May 14, 8:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementGIDJewell25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2022Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.