Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
255 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Tonight Through This Morning...
We have an active night with thunderstorms ongoing early this
morning at the time of this forecast discussion and thus will keep
things a bit shorter than normal.

Our biggest immediate concern is the possibility for severe
thunderstorms through mid morning in association with a short
wave/vort max that will be sliding across the forecast area.
Forecast models have been in good agreement since at least
yesterday that we would see this uptick in thunderstorms during
the early morning hours including the possibility for severe
thunderstorms. However, MUCAPE values are lower in the more recent
model runs, generally around or below 1000 J/KG, so higher end
severe thunderstorms seems less likely. However, the
shear/instability combination is still sufficient for at least
marginally severe thunderstorms capable of 60 mph wind gusts and
half dollar sized hail. Thunderstorms will track southeast across
the forecast area. Not everyone will see storms and the better
chances will be from around the Tri-Cities and points east and
southeast from there. Thunderstorms should be tracking southeast
out of our forecast area by late morning.

This Afternoon Into Tonight...
Clouds will start to clear out by early afternoon, but it will be
cooler today behind this storm system and have lowered high
temperatures a bit into the lower 70s for south central Nebraska
to the mid and upper 70s across north central Kansas.

Monday...
This should be a dry and warm day as an upper ridge slides east
across the region. Highs for most areas will be in the lower 80s.

Monday night through Tuesday night...
The upper pattern will become more zonal but with a vort max or
two passing through and several models indicating chances for
thunderstorms. The better storm chances will be during the
overnight periods with a little bit of low level jet support.
Between Monday night and Tuesday night, it currently seems that
Tuesday night will have the better chance at a more widespread
precipitation event and favor eastern zones.

Wednesday through Friday...
A large upper level trough should take shape across the western
United States, which would pump warm moist air into the plains.
Therefore, highs should climb into the 80s on Wednesday and
especially on Thursday. However, a cold front could knock highs
back down again into the 60s or lower 70s by Friday and Saturday.
We could see a chance for precipitation with that cold front
Thursday night. Rain chances could linger into the weekend
depending on the strength and progression of the upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

The primary aviation concern will center around the chance for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms beginning in the hours right
around dawn and then lasting through at least mid morning. Skies
should begin to clear out during the afternoon hours, but could
flirt with MVFR ceilings at times this morning. The light east
wind early this morning will become more northeasterly towards
dawn and then northerly this afternoon, but should remain rather
light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
917 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
917 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There will be a chance of thunderstorms for the rest of the night.
A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
late tonight mainly after 3 AM and last into Sunday morning. The
better chance for severe weather with these late night storms will
be east of a Kearney to Franklin Nebraska, to Osborne Kansas
line. The primary late night severe weather hazards would be hail
to the size of golf balls and 60 mph wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms could linger through mid Sunday
morning, mainly east of Highway 281.

Additional thunderstorm chances return to the forecast area
Monday night through Tuesday night, and then periodically
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports through
tonight to the National Weather Service.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
213 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

NEZ060-061-073-150745-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Dawson NE-
213 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Phelps, southwestern Buffalo and eastern Dawson Counties through 245
AM CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Lexington, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Overton around 225 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Elm Creek and
Odessa.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 245 and 263.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4083 9979 4097 9965 4076 9915 4055 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 305DEG 33KT 4085 9962

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Wesely

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
304 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

NEZ074-075-150830-
Adams NE-Kearney NE-
304 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Adams
and Kearney Counties through 330 AM CDT...

At 304 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Minden, or 9 miles south of Kearney, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minden, Axtell, Roseland, Holstein, Ayr, Heartwell and Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 9916 4065 9899 4066 9897 4055 9843
      4035 9843 4035 9877 4045 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 295DEG 35KT 4057 9905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Wesely

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

NEZ076-077-150845-
Clay NE-Fillmore NE-
318 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Clay
and Fillmore Counties through 345 AM CDT...

At 317 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sutton, or 23 miles southwest of York, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shickley around 330 AM CDT.
  Geneva around 335 AM CDT.
  Strang around 340 AM CDT.
  Milligan and Ohiowa around 345 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9759 4054 9799 4070 9788 4052 9737
      4035 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 297DEG 40KT 4058 9784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wesely

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

NEZ084-085-150900-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
331 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Franklin and Webster Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Campbell, or 25 miles southwest of Hastings, moving southeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Campbell around 335 AM CDT.
  Bladen around 340 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Red Cloud, Cowles
and Guide Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9834 4005 9857 4025 9900 4035 9889
      4035 9828 4007 9827 4000 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 310DEG 42KT 4035 9877

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Wesely