Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
228 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

The main story for this forecast is the threat for severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. A cold front
is currently pushing across the Sandhills, stretching from near
Imperial to North Platte to O'Neill as of 2pm. This will continue
into the local forecast area late this afternoon. There has been
relatively limited cumulus development in its vicinity so far due
to fairly strong capping aloft, but there is good agreement in
models that the frontal forcing will result in fairly rapid
development by 4-5pm at the latest. These storms will then
generally push eastward through the evening hours.

The hot, moist airmass ahead of the front, along with increasing
deep layer shear will result in ample instability for intense
sustained updrafts. This may result in isolated large hail, but
the main threat appears to be from downburst winds with high cloud
bases resulting in large DCAPE values. Additionally, an isolated
landspout tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well. Parameters
are not favorable for classic supercellular tornadoes, but
combination of favorable low-level lapse rates and strong sfc
vorticity along the front leads to a heightened landspout threat,
especially for southwest parts of the area.

Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Sunday
morning. Behind the cold front, Sunday will be significantly
cooler, and highs are only expected to reach the 80s. Chances for
showers and storms then increase again Sunday night as a shortwave
arrives from the southwest, bringing in fairly deep moisture.
Instability is fairly limited, though, so severe weather is
unlikely. Rain amounts will not be overly heavy, but the totals do
favor the southern half of the area. This would be a welcome
sight to portions of KS that have been pretty dry as of late.

The pattern remains on the cooler side through the week as an
upper low pushes southeastward out of Canada and into the upper
midwest. We will also have daily chances for rain and storms. At
this point, it appears the the highest chance for rain (and
perhaps some severe storms) will be Tuesday night. As expected,
convective details are murky, at best, through the upcoming week,
but convective parameters do not look particularly concerning for
any of the days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Scattered t-storms are likely in the vicinity of EAR/GRI 22-05Z
this evening. Some of these storms may produce severe wind gusts.
Timing of these winds is still somewhat uncertain, so did not
include a tempo group.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with winds
turning to the north/northeast behind the front tonight into
Sunday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1208 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees expected across the
entire area this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and persist through the evening. Some of these storms
may be severe. Damaging wind gusts as high as 70 MPH is the
primary threat, but there is also a chance for hail to the size of
quarters and possibly some isolated landspout tornadoes. The main
timeframe for severe weather is 5pm to 10pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue across the outlook
area Sunday through Friday, mainly favoring the evening and
overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to reports any damaging wind gusts or
hail of any size.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PLEASANTON              40.97N 99.08W
07/23/2022  M2.60 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            UNOFFICIAL GAUGE REPORT FROM OVERNIGHT
            RAIN...VIA FACEBOOK. NEARLY ALL RAIN FELL
            BETWEEN 10PM-1230AM.

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 AM     HAIL             3 W KENESAW             40.63N 98.72W
07/23/2022  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            OVERNIGHT...VIA FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             4 ESE PLEASANTON        40.95N 99.02W
07/23/2022  E1.00 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...VIA
            FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. ALSO
            UNOFFICIAL GAUGE HAD 2.80 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

PFANNKUCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

NEZ072-232115-
Gosper NE-
326 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gosper County
through 415 PM CDT...

At 326 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or
22 miles southeast of Curtis, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Elwood, Bertrand and Smithfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10010 4044 9998 4070 9998 4070 9970
      4068 9964 4035 9964 4035 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 261DEG 24KT 4048 10013

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Shawkey