Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The main stories, at least through the weekend, will be the
extreme heat that will recur tomorrow ahead of a cold front, and
the chance for some potentially strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening. Afterwards,
temperatures will drop to below normal with highs mainly in the
80s Sunday and into next week behind the cold front, with periods
of shower and thunderstorm chances through much of the next week.

Tonight, there is a chance of thunderstorms across the outlook
area, mainly during the evening hours. Convection may develop
along a quasi-stationary front over our north forecast area if we
get enough surface heating, but with the late start to heating due
to earlier showers and thunderstorms, somewhat doubtful that there
will be enough heating to initiate too much there. A little
further south, if we are not too strongly capped, isolated thunderstorms
may develop over north central Kansas west of our coverage area
and then move east. Any storms that do develop can be expected to
move through between roughly 5PM and 10PM, and may produce up to
60 mph wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters.

Saturday, expect one more day of extreme heat with heat indices of
105 to 110 degrees, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the
entire forecast area from 1PM to 8PM. A cold front moving
southeast across the area will bring a chance of severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with these
storms.

Sunday, temperatures will be cooler behind the cold front, which
will still be over central and southern Kansas. Just north of the
front in our outlook area, we can expect more widespread showers
and thunderstorms with probably the best chance so far of some
decent accumulation, most likely centered around the Nebraska-
Kansas border. Temperatures will be much cooler than we have
experienced recently with highs generally in the mid- to upper
80s.

Monday and beyond, there will be periodic chances of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. Temperatures will continue to
be below normal with highs mainly in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period.
Models continue to show the potential for marginal LLWS late
tonight into early Sat. morning, and kept that mention going at
both terminal sites. Current SSE winds at the sites are expected
to turn more southerly overnight, then more SSW for the daytime
hours tomorrow. Expecting speeds to increase with time tomorrow,
with gusts of 25-30 MPH possible during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
824 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
824 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible this
evening, primarily through 10 PM. The primary hazards would be
hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday afternoon and early evening, heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees are forecast across the outlook area. A Heat Advisory
is in effect for the entire outlook area from 1 PM to 8 PM. Please
refer the latest advisory message for additional information.

Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across south central
Nebraska,as a cold front slides through the outlook area. Hail
near the size of quarters and wind gusts near 60 MPH would be the
primary hazards.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue across the outlook
area Sunday through Thursday, mainly favoring the evening and
overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to reports any damaging wind gusts or
hail of any size.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

NEZ072-082-230015-
Gosper NE-Furnas NE-
629 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Gosper and
northwestern Furnas Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 26 miles southeast
of Curtis, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Gosper and
northwestern Furnas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10010 4044 10009 4044 9998 4066 9998
      4037 9977 4028 10013 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 237DEG 19KT 4038 10014

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wekesser

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
910 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

NEZ061-230245-
Buffalo NE-
910 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Buffalo
County through 945 PM CDT...

At 909 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Miller, or 23 miles northwest of Kearney, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Amherst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9940 4105 9924 4102 9909 4083 9927
      4099 9943 4102 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 301DEG 14KT 4099 9932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Wekesser