Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

A near-stationary boundary might be the focus of some late
afternoon and evening convection. With little in the way of a cap,
we will have a scenario where deep layer shear will be marginal,
near 30 KTS or so, but MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg this
afternoon/evening will be enough for some pulse-like marginal
severe storms at least. We might even get a brief spin-up along
the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear
environment.

Strong signal for low stratus this morning, and perhaps some
reduced visibility.

We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire
weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air
surges north ahead of the cold front.

Strong negatively tiled shortwave trough heads into the
northern/central Plains tomorrow. Hi- res CAMS indicate that as
the surface low tracks northeast across the CWA tomorrow, the
triple point may wind up being near the tri- cities, putting
tornado threat as far north as the tri- city area for Friday
afternoon/early evening time frame. Plenty of moisture wraps
around into the triple point region and could be a sneaky busy day
for severe weather. Even storms farther west look like potentially
producers of large hail and quite strong severe gusts. The window
for severe activity will be relatively short-lived from mid
afternoon to mid evening time frame before heading east of the
area by late evening.

Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high
wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest,
especially near and west of tri-cities. Saturday looks like a
quite windy and potentially damp day with wrap around moisture on
the backside of the low. Signals from models still point toward
at least marginally high wind with gusts near 60 mph for Saturday.

Next week looks rather cool with potentially several periods of
meaningful rain chances, with increasing consistency with this
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Thunderstorms could erupt by about 23Z or 00Z along a nearby
nearly stationary boundary. Plenty of instability is developing,
but we are low on shear, so any storms that develop this evening
could be rather pulse-like. Stratus signal has been consistent for
late tonight and into Friday morning. Most of our thunder chances
are this evening, but outside chances linger through early morning
Friday. MVFR visibility is possible as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
449 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291215-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
449 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Although many locations will remain thunderstorm-free, isolated to
scattered storm development is likely at various times through
tonight and in various parts of the coverage area. A few storms
could become strong to severe, with the main threat being hail up
to perhaps as big as golf balls, and wind gusts up to around 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday into Friday night brings an overall-better chance for more
widespread thunderstorm activity, including a greater chance for
severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The
majority of the outlook area is under a Slight Risk for severe
storms, with the most favored time frame being 3 to 11 PM. The
main hazards with the most intense storms will be large hail to at
least golf ball size, damaging wind gusts up to around 70 MPH,
and the possibility for a few tornadoes, especially with any
storms that develop near and especially south and east of the
Nebraska Tri Cities.

In addition on Friday afternoon, the combination of gusty winds
and low relative humidity may lead to near-critical to briefly
critical fire danger in portions of north central Kansas,
particularly within Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties

Finally, as thunderstorms exit the picture, strong northwest
winds will overtake the entire outlook area late Friday night into
especially Saturday daytime. Sustained speeds of 30 to 40 MPH
appear likely Saturday, accompanied by gusts of 50 to 60 MPH. A
High Wind Watch is in effect during the daytime and evening hours
Saturday for counties along and west of Highway 281, which stand
the best chance of seeing gusts around 60 MPH.

Additional chances for thunderstorms enter the picture Sunday
night into Monday, and again Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any possible instances of large
hail or strong thunderstorm winds that might occur through
tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 PM CDT THU APR 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             2 N OXFORD              40.29N 99.63W
04/28/2022  M2.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER SUBMITTED TWITTER PHOTO OF
            MEASURED 2.1 INCH HAIL. TIME IT ACTUALLY
            FELL ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PFANNKUCH