Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

A near-stationary boundary might be the focus of some late
afternoon and evening convection. With little in the way of a cap,
we will have a scenario where deep layer shear will be marginal,
near 30 KTS or so, but MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg this
afternoon/evening will be enough for some pulse-like marginal
severe storms at least. We might even get a brief spin-up along
the stationary boundary, especially with the low-shear
environment.

Strong signal for low stratus this morning, and perhaps some
reduced visibility.

We could also stand a chance at some short-term near-critical fire
weather issues in at least our Kansas counties as the dry air
surges north ahead of the cold front.

Strong negatively tiled shortwave trough heads into the
northern/central Plains tomorrow. Hi- res CAMS indicate that as
the surface low tracks northeast across the CWA tomorrow, the
triple point may wind up being near the tri- cities, putting
tornado threat as far north as the tri- city area for Friday
afternoon/early evening time frame. Plenty of moisture wraps
around into the triple point region and could be a sneaky busy day
for severe weather. Even storms farther west look like potentially
producers of large hail and quite strong severe gusts. The window
for severe activity will be relatively short-lived from mid
afternoon to mid evening time frame before heading east of the
area by late evening.

Cold front surges through and still a strong signal for near-high
wind criteria wind gusts near 60 mph from the northwest,
especially near and west of tri-cities. Saturday looks like a
quite windy and potentially damp day with wrap around moisture on
the backside of the low. Signals from models still point toward
at least marginally high wind with gusts near 60 mph for Saturday.

Next week looks rather cool with potentially several periods of
meaningful rain chances, with increasing consistency with this
trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Thunderstorms could erupt by about 23Z or 00Z along a nearby
nearly stationary boundary. Plenty of instability is developing,
but we are low on shear, so any storms that develop this evening
could be rather pulse-like. Stratus signal has been consistent for
late tonight and into Friday morning. Most of our thunder chances
are this evening, but outside chances linger through early morning
Friday. MVFR visibility is possible as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>075-082>085.

KS...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ005-006-017-018.

&&

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>