Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

408 
WWUS83 KFSD 112024 CCA
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

SDZ050-058>060-063>065-068-069-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-221011T2300Z/
Gregory-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...

... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM 
CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Bon Homme and 
  Yankton.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-052>055-057-061-
062-066-067-070-071-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.COR.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-McCook-
Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Union-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PARTS OF AND NORTHWEST 
IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, 
  Lake, Brule, McCook, Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Clay and 
  Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ039-120600-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Kingsbury-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR KINGSBURY COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Kingsbury.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

759 
WWUS83 KFSD 112302
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

SDZ050-058>060-063>065-068-069-120715-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-221011T2300Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Gregory-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Bon Homme and 
  Yankton.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-039-052>055-057-
061-062-066-067-070-071-120715-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Brule-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Union-
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PARTS OF AND 
NORTHWEST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Brule, McCook, Minnehaha, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

968 
WWUS83 KFSD 120219
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
919 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-039-050-052>055-
057>071-121000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-
Lake-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
919 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PARTS OF
AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Gregory, 
  Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

568 
WWUS83 KFSD 120813
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

IAZ002-003-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-056-121615-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Brookings-Moody-
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Osceola and Dickinson. In Minnesota, 
  Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, Jackson, Pipestone 
  and Rock. In South Dakota, Brookings and Moody.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-039-050-052>055-
057>071-121615-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-
Lake-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
313 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST 
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND EXTREME 
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Gregory, 
  Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

857 
WWUS83 KFSD 121601
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1101 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-130015-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.A.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
1101 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND 
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Sioux, 
  O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and 
  Ida. In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Cottonwood, Nobles, 
  Jackson, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In 
  South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 to 30 percent today, and 18 
  to 23 percent on Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

919 
WWUS83 KFSD 122008
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-130415-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0023.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-Lyon-
Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA 
AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday. The Red Flag Warning has been
cancelled. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Osceola, Dickinson, O'Brien, Clay, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista and Ida. In Minnesota, Lyon, Murray, 
  Cottonwood, Nobles and Jackson.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 21 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-
052>071-130415-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0023.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-
Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-
Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-Union-
308 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury. 
  In Minnesota, Lincoln, Pipestone and Rock. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, 
  Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, 
  Davison, Hanson, McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, 
  Hutchinson, Turner, Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and 
  Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 to 35 percent this afternoon. As low as 
  15 TO 20 percent Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Frontal zone poised back through central SD at midday with healthy
prefrontal warm plume and gradient. With thermodynamic profiles
and distributions skewing toward the drier, have updated to a red
flag warning for areas previously in the fire weather watch, and
expanded for a few more counties into the mid-James valley.
Actually possible that a few more counties eastward could threaten
an hour or two in or near criteria if mixing goes to potential
just ahead of the front, but will be a battle to hold onto the
wind. Not an ideal overlap of winds/RH, but went more for those
areas likely to get the slightly better post-frontal northwest wind
gradient or perhaps a small window of pre-frontal mixing and
lingering southwest wind.

Prospect for precipitation during the daytime seems to be
dwindling, and although mid-level frontogenetic forcing could
begin to glance the far western CWA toward 00z, it will be a tough
road to haul given the dry dry dry layer below the higher cloud
base. Should be some threat for very light precipitation working
across the area during the overnight period. Otherwise, jury is
still out but close to a conviction of minimal threat for surface-
based convective activity near the advancing front. Small window
by early to mid evening in far eastern CWA, but cannot see any
more than a isolated threat there for a couple hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

A trough of low pressure will deepen over northern parts of the
Western High Plains today which will swing a cold front into the
area. Ahead of this front temperatures will be very warm with
widespread highs in the lower to middle 80s. Southwest winds ahead
of this front over northwest IA, northeast NE, far eastern SD and
parts of southwest MN will will gust to 30 to 40 mph. By late
morning into mid afternoon parts of east central SD will see winds
diminish just ahead of the incoming cold front with northwest winds
in central SD picking up and likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph late
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will likely drop about 25
to 30 degrees between 4 pm and midnight. By late afternoon and
early evening an isolated thunderstorm will be possible from about
Jackson to Ida Grove and east, but the chances look to be
diminishing. As the wave driving the cooler air approaches mid
level forcing and moisture will likely allow a band of showers to
develop and move through this evening into the early overnight.
Precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side.

Aimed towards the milder side of guidance tonight for low
temperatures as winds remain strong through the night. Mostly 40 to
45 for the coldest readings by sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Wednesday will see a mid level wave dive south through the area
in the morning which should aid in enhancing mixing a bit as well
as possibly bringing some weak instability at the top of the mid
layer as the colder air aloft increases lapse rates. Some enhanced
cumulus could grow enough to produce some weaker showers. With
some fairly strong winds aloft will need to watch the potential
for some sneaky wind gusts if any real showers can develop.
Starting to look like a wind advisory may be needed but also need
to watch for the potential for critical fire weather as humidities
fall to 25 to 35 percent along with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

A continued push of colder air will bring temperatures down into
Thursday but winds and dry air will be very similar to Wednesday.
This may again necessitate fire weather headlines with the potential
for critical fire weather. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid
50s but with dew points dropping into the teens humidities will fall
back into the 20s. With gusts around 40 or so mph this will likely
create some problems.

Friday will see some recovery in temperatures, but that may be in
mainly Sd and northeast NE. Colder air is a bit stubborn to shift
northeast, so looking at highs in the mid 50s in southwest MN and
mid 60s along the Missouri River. Fire weather concerns for now look
a little better with winds only gusting to about 25 to 30 mph and
afternoon humidities in the 30 to 40 percent range.

While not excessively cold, most solutions are leaning more heavily
towards some chillier readings this weekend before temperatures
recover a bit more into early next week. Overall looking at highs
mainly in the 50s Saturday through Monday with morning lows mostly
in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Aviation concerns are mainly focused on wind through the next 24
hours. Prefrontal wind gusts 25 to 35 knots likely to continue
through the afternoon near/east of I-29, but axis of max winds
will shift gradually eastward through the afternoon. Other post-
frontal northwest wind gusts will kick in and bring some 25-30 kt
gusts to areas west of the James River very late afternoon and
early evening. Winds settle overnight as a weak band of
sprinkles/light showers work though, but nothing worse than VFR.
Winds will not take long to return on Wed as secondary front
blasts through during the morning and northwest gusts by midday
30 to 40 kts are probable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1127 am CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Update...Heating ahead of advancing frontal boundary will combine
with both pre-frontal southwest wind and post-frontal northwest
wind to allow the existing drying to be close enough for a couple
hours to upgrade Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
this afternoon. Hedged afternoon RH somewhat lower per ensemble
distributions and recent trends in our dry environment, and even
with a relative lull in wind for a while as the frontal location
approaches, there should be at least an hour or two of critical
RH/wind threshold overlap met, but perhaps a bit shy of the 20
percent RH needed in south central. Will have to watch a few more
counties on the east side of the Red Flag Warning where could see
RH mix sub 25 percent before the gradient relaxes with approaching
front.

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Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Today will pose a threat for critical fire weather as strong heating
ahead of an incoming front develops. Right now there appears to be a
slight disconnect between the driest air and the strongest winds.
Southwest winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph in parts of northwest IA,
northeast NE, southwest MN and far eastern SD will be coupled with
some higher dew points so afternoon humidities will average about 30
to 40 percent, and this will only be for the last few hours of the
day. As the cold front passes, along and just ahead of it
humidities will drop closer to 25 percent but winds will diminish.
Behind the front in mostly south central SD winds will increase
from the northwest and gust to 30 to 40 mph with humidities around
25 percent which will likely be the area with the best chance for
critical fire weather conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday will be quite a bit cooler than today with
afternoon humidities averaging about 20 to 30 percent and a burly
northwest wind will likely gust to 35 to 45 mph. This could support
rapid fire growth with the nearly cured fuels in the area. A fire
weather watch will be posted for much of the area Wednesday and may
again be needed Thursday.

So the main story here is that today through Thursday will see
critical to near critical fire weather potential and care and
planning will need to take place if burning or harvesting. Take time
to make sure fires are out or that any equipment has not sparked a
small fire that could quickly grow.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ038-050-052>055-057>071.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for SDZ050-058>060-
     063>065-068-069.

MN...None.
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

UPDATE...Chapman
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Chapman
FIRE WEATHER...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-120915-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High to very high fire danger is expected today, with the higher
threat closer to the Missouri River in South Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of high to very high fire danger are expected Wednesday
and Thursday, especially through the Missouri and James River
Valleys, as well as any areas with very dry vegetation.

Winds today will be from a southerly direction, gusting as high
as 30 to 35 mph this afternoon as the winds turn more westerly.
Wednesday and Thursday will see winds from the northwest, gusting
as high as 35 to 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.