Red Flag Warning 21, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

437 
WWUS83 KFSD 112019
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

SDZ050-058>060-063>065-068-069-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-221011T2300Z/
Gregory-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...

... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM 
CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Bon Homme and 
  Yankton.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-052>055-057-061-
062-066-067-070-071-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-McCook-
Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Union-
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, 
  Lake, Brule, McCook, Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Clay and 
  Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ039-120600-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Kingsbury-
319 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR KINGSBURY COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Kingsbury.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

408 
WWUS83 KFSD 112024 CCA
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

SDZ050-058>060-063>065-068-069-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-221011T2300Z/
Gregory-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...

... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM 
CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Bon Homme and 
  Yankton.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-052>055-057-061-
062-066-067-070-071-120600-
/O.UPG.KFSD.FW.A.0012.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
/O.COR.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-McCook-
Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Union-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PARTS OF AND NORTHWEST 
IOWA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, 
  Lake, Brule, McCook, Minnehaha, Turner, Lincoln, Clay and 
  Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ039-120600-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Kingsbury-
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR KINGSBURY COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Kingsbury.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 26 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

759 
WWUS83 KFSD 112302
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

SDZ050-058>060-063>065-068-069-120715-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-221011T2300Z/
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Gregory-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Bon Homme-Yankton-
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Gregory, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Bon Homme and 
  Yankton.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ038-039-052>055-057-
061-062-066-067-070-071-120715-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0022.221012T1700Z-221013T0000Z/
Lyon-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Woodbury-
Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-
Brule-McCook-Minnehaha-Turner-Lincoln-Union-
602 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND PARTS OF AND 
NORTHWEST IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Lyon, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, 
  Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury and Ida. In Nebraska, Dixon 
  and Dakota. In South Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Brule, McCook, Minnehaha, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
658 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

A trough of low pressure will deepen over northern parts of the
Western High Plains today which will swing a cold front into the
area. Ahead of this front temperatures will be very warm with
widespread highs in the lower to middle 80s. Southwest winds ahead
of this front over northwest IA, northeast NE, far eastern SD and
parts of southwest MN will will gust to 30 to 40 mph. By late
morning into mid afternoon parts of east central SD will see winds
diminish just ahead of the incoming cold front with northwest winds
in central SD picking up and likely gusting to 30 to 40 mph late
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will likely drop about 25
to 30 degrees between 4 pm and midnight. By late afternoon and
early evening an isolated thunderstorm will be possible from about
Jackson to Ida Grove and east, but the chances look to be
diminishing. As the wave driving the cooler air approaches mid
level forcing and moisture will likely allow a band of showers to
develop and move through this evening into the early overnight.
Precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side.

Aimed towards the milder side of guidance tonight for low
temperatures as winds remain strong through the night. Mostly 40 to
45 for the coldest readings by sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Wednesday will see a mid level wave dive south through the area
in the morning which should aid in enhancing mixing a bit as well
as possibly bringing some weak instability at the top of the mid
layer as the colder air aloft increases lapse rates. Some enhanced
cumulus could grow enough to produce some weaker showers. With
some fairly strong winds aloft will need to watch the potential
for some sneaky wind gusts if any real showers can develop.
Starting to look like a wind advisory may be needed but also need
to watch for the potential for critical fire weather as humidities
fall to 25 to 35 percent along with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

A continued push of colder air will bring temperatures down into
Thursday but winds and dry air will be very similar to Wednesday.
This may again necessitate fire weather headlines with the potential
for critical fire weather. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid
50s but with dew points dropping into the teens humidities will fall
back into the 20s. With gusts around 40 or so mph this will likely
create some problems.

Friday will see some recovery in temperatures, but that may be in
mainly Sd and northeast NE. Colder air is a bit stubborn to shift
northeast, so looking at highs in the mid 50s in southwest MN and
mid 60s along the Missouri River. Fire weather concerns for now look
a little better with winds only gusting to about 25 to 30 mph and
afternoon humidities in the 30 to 40 percent range.

While not excessively cold, most solutions are leaning more heavily
towards some chillier readings this weekend before temperatures
recover a bit more into early next week. Overall looking at highs
mainly in the 50s Saturday through Monday with morning lows mostly
in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

VFR condititions are expected for the TAF period. With the low level
jet continuing overhead, llws continues to be generated at KFSD
and KSUX along with breezy southerly winds. As the morning
progresses, the low level jet will slowly diminish taking the llws
shear with it. After a brief break from the wind, a strengthening
elevated low level jet will move into the area by the afternoon
hours creating more breezy conditions with gusts in the 25-30 kt
range possible.

Otherwise, a strong cold front is expected to pass throught the area
this afternoon shifting our winds to the northwest. Model guidance
suggests that this system won't bring any meaningful precipitation
to the area, but a few sprinkles could be possible in portions of
northwest IA and southwestern MN to end the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Today will pose a threat for critical fire weather as strong heating
ahead of an incoming front develops. Right now there appears to be a
slight disconnect between the driest air and the strongest winds.
Southwest winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph in parts of northwest IA,
northeast NE, southwest MN and far eastern SD will be coupled with
some higher dew points so afternoon humidities will average about 30
to 40 percent, and this will only be for the last few hours of the
day. As the cold front passes, along and just ahead of it
humidities will drop closer to 25 percent but winds will diminish.
Behind the front in mostly south central SD winds will increase
from the northwest and gust to 30 to 40 mph with humidities around
25 percent which will likely be the area with the best chance for
critical fire weather conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday will be quite a bit cooler than today with
afternoon humidities averaging about 20 to 30 percent and a burly
northwest wind will likely gust to 35 to 45 mph. This could support
rapid fire growth with the nearly cured fuels in the area. A fire
weather watch will be posted for much of the area Wednesday and may
again be needed Thursday.

So the main story here is that today through Thursday will see
critical to near critical fire weather potential and care and
planning will need to take place if burning or harvesting. Take time
to make sure fires are out or that any equipment has not sparked a
small fire that could quickly grow.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ038-050-052>055-057>071.

     Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ050-063>065-068-069.

MN...None.
IA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for IAZ001-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Gumbs
FIRE WEATHER...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-120915-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

High to very high fire danger is expected today, with the higher
threat closer to the Missouri River in South Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periods of high to very high fire danger are expected Wednesday
and Thursday, especially through the Missouri and James River
Valleys, as well as any areas with very dry vegetation.

Winds today will be from a southerly direction, gusting as high
as 30 to 35 mph this afternoon as the winds turn more westerly.
Wednesday and Thursday will see winds from the northwest, gusting
as high as 35 to 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.