Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Severe storm threat the main challenge as highlighed by the SPC
outlook and mesoscale discussions. To summarize SPC, we now have a
better idea of what is possible this afternoon into the early
morning hours. Appears to be 2 rounds of severe storm potential.
Satellite and radar indicate the boundary of concern for the first
round across SE ND into NW MN. As forcing from an upper wave
approaching from South Dakota overrides this boundary, anticipate
storms to initiate. This area will be in a favorable zone of
instability (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG) and effective layer shear
(40-50 knots) for organized storms. Effective SRH is weaker so not
sure about supercell potential, but anticipate at least a
multicell severe storm threat will severe hail, wind, tornadoes,
and flash flooding all possible. Storm motion anticipated to be
parallel to the boundary, so anticipate linear mode/cold pool
development with some sort of complex into NW MN becoming mainly a
wind threat. The next round will be associated with a stronger
upper wave/upper jet that will arrive after 03z or so. This would
bring the potential for some sort of convective complex with 80+
mph winds the main threat, likely where instability remains after
the first round of severe (SE ND into WC MN).

Upper low propgates north of the region tomorrow, which should
limit any impacts across our region. Will be windy and will need
to consider wind advisory, plus any showers or potential
convection across NE ND and NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The extended forecast period looks to offer opportunities for
several types of impactful weather, ranging from strong to severe
tstms to another round of extreme heat.

Wed will feature nothing but a (near) windless summer day with high
temps near seasonal values from the upper 70s to mid 80s, before a
series of troughs badgers the region with chances for tstms during
the period from Thu through Sat. Main upper trough would look to be
east of the area by Sun.

Looking at temps, upper ridging is expected to redevelop in the
Southern Plains, and likely develop its crest into the Northern
Plains, but not nearly as amplified as the current upper ridge over
the region. This is well reflected by the clustered guidance
solutions. A dome of warmth underneath this ridge should reach into
the Northern Plains by Thu/Fri, likely reintroducing temps into the
90s. This is illustrated by NBM's 70 to 80% chance of at least 90F
within the RRV, at least for Thu. It remains unclear at this time
the magnitude of the moisture that will come with this heat, and
will likely drive potential impacts assoc with this heat.

By late weekend into early next week, northwest flow will become
established over the region, leading to mainly dry weather and near
seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Convection will be the main aviation challenge this period,
especially this afternoon into tonight. Coverage is still very
uncertain, so went VCTS where best potential exists, and will
update later as confidence increases. MVFR cigs possible later
tonight across DVL, GFK, TVF, BJI areas.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Excessive Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027-
     030-039-049-052-053.

     Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ026-028-029-038-054.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

     Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ005-006-008-009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-211015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh-
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions are expected once again today, with heat
index values around 100. Higher heat index values to 105 will be
possible within the Red River Valley this afternoon.

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern ND and
northwest MN this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be
large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts over 80 mph.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Localized flash flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday afternoon north of Highway
2. Small hail and occasional lightning would be the main threats.
Windy conditions may also be possible Tuesday, and gusts around
40 mph will be possible mainly from the Red River Valley and west.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-211015-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
1159 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and
damaging wind gusts over 80 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also
possible. Localized flash flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms may be possible Tuesday afternoon north of Highway
2. Small hail and occasional lightning would be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ015-016-022-023-027-028-202130-
West Becker MN-East Becker MN-Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-
East Polk MN-North Clearwater MN-
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Polk,
Mahnomen, western Becker and southern Clearwater Counties through 430
PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern White Earth Nation, or 20 miles north of Detroit Lakes,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Northwestern Tulaby Lake around 400 PM CDT.
  Naytahwaush and Beaulieu around 405 PM CDT.
  Mahkonce around 410 PM CDT.
  Roy Lake around 415 PM CDT.
  Pine Bend, Island Lake in Mahnomen County and Rice Lake around 420
  PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4681 9586 4697 9615 4765 9571 4746 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 208DEG 45KT 4711 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Spender/TG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ001-NDZ027-202200-
West Polk MN-Grand Forks ND-
412 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Polk
and southeastern Grand Forks Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thompson, or 9 miles southwest of Grand Forks, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Merrifield around 420 PM CDT.
  Grand Forks and Bygland around 425 PM CDT.
  Mallory around 430 PM CDT.
  East Grand Forks and Davidson around 435 PM CDT.
  Tabor and Sherack around 455 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Grand Forks Airport.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 130 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4814 9665 4771 9688 4782 9725 4817 9700
      4818 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 211DEG 29KT 4778 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Spender/TG