Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Convection strength and heavy rainfall potential are the primary
forecast issues for the period.

Pretty complex synoptic set up as an upper low over Nebraska
ejects northeastward. While the primary warm sector remains to our
south, there has been a bit less cloud cover in our west central
MN counties and some ML CAPE values approaching the 1000 J/kg mark
according to SPC mesoanalysis. Effective bulk shear is not as
strong as originally projected, with around 30 kts in the southern
Red River Valley, but shear should rapidly improve as the upper
low approaches in the next few hours. Hodographs over west central
MN are nicely curved and if we get some storms more firmly rooted
in the boundary layer instead of elevated we will see increased
tornado potential. Tornado watch has been issued for our west
central MN counties and should see a severe threat continue
through early evening as the upper low moves up towards Lake of
the Woods.

While there is not nearly as much instability further north and
west across our central counties, there is at some moderate
instability and Pwat values in the 1.0 to 1.5 range. Morning
convection brought up to 1 to 2 inches of rain already in some
areas, and WoFS has some pretty high probabilities of 2 inches or
more entering our southern counties. Think potential for
additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 or more, is possible for
tonight and into tomorrow as at least some rainfall continues to
wrap around the upper low even as the severe threat ends. Will
continue with the flood watch, and may need to extend it to end a
bit later.

Another issue with the low pressure system is west to
northwesterly winds picking up behind the low center tonight into
Tuesday. There will be some decent cold air advection, and
pressure gradient is tight. Winds will be up into wind advisory
range in some spots across eastern ND tonight into tomorrow.
However, given expected convection and the possibility of a wake
low developing that would be more impactful than gradient wind
advisory winds, will hold off on any NPW headlines for now until
our severe threat has passed.

Tuesday will see some lingering rain, with wind and cold air
advection making for a blustery day. Temps will be well below
seasonal averages for the last day of May, but at least there will
be no threat for severe storms. Could see some clearing skies and
temps dropping near the 40 mark for Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Overview...

Chances for impactful weather will be low across the long term period
until the weekend. Overall, looking at below normal temperatures
generally in the 60s to low 70s across the region. By the weekend,
rain chances do look to increase, but confidence in the details of
any potential system is low at this time.

Discussion...

The upper level pattern will feature a blocking pattern over Canada.
Under this blocking pattern, ensemble guidance is in good agreement
that an upper level trough over central Canada will only gradually
drift eastward throughout the long term period. This will work to
induce west-northwesterly flow aloft over the northern Plains. This
flow pattern and generally high pressure at the surface should yield
quiet weather throughout the remainder of the week. With
northwesterly flow aloft, some weak CAA will overtake the region
with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. By the weekend, the
blocking looks to break down on the east coast. As this occurs, most
ensemble guidance within cluster analysis indicates that the
aforementioned upper trough over central Canada will drift east-
southeastward. This may introduce increasing rain chances to the
region moving into the weekend, but will depend upon the progression
of the blocking pattern. Regardless, at this time, NBM probabilities
of 24-hour QPF exceeding 0.25" are only in the 10-20% range across
the southern FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Rain continues to lift northwestward across northeastern ND, with
a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs across the area. There will be a break
in convection, but more storms will begin to move into the region
late afternoon and into the evening. Plenty of VCTS this evening,
but will keep prevailing TSRA out and just mention in tempo groups
for now as there is still some uncertainty as to how convection
will evolve. Ceilings will drop down to MVFR and then IFR in some
spots, and convection will transition to more showery activity
later in the period. Winds are southeasterly from the Red River
eastward, but will eventually shift north to northwesterly as the
system begins to move east overnight. Winds will gust above 35 kts
at KDVL and KGFK from the northwest late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-310845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
333 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the far
southern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of west central
Minnesota during the overnight and early morning hours. 1.50 inch
diameter hail and 70 mph wind gusts are the main hazards with
these storms.

The next chance for severe thunderstorms will be this afternoon
and evening, with the potential for damaging winds up to 80 mph,
hail over 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes, possibly
significant. Localized flash flooding is also possible. This
looks to be a particularly dangerous afternoon and evening for all
modes of severe weather. People need to pay close attention to
the weather and have a way to receive warnings. Make sure to go
through your severe weather action plan, especially for people in
the lakes country of Minnesota. Have a shelter where you can go if
dangerous weather approaches. Do not wait until it is too late to
get your plan in place.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
438 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHBY                   46.09N 95.82W
05/30/2022                   GRANT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN AND TREES UPROOTED NEAR
            DOWNTOWN ASHBY.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
510 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW YORK MILLS          46.52N 95.37W
05/30/2022  M65 MPH          OTTER TAIL         MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W STAPLES AIRPORT     46.38N 94.87W
05/30/2022  E70 MPH          Wadena             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             NNE ALDRICH             46.37N 94.94W
05/30/2022  E1.00 INCH       Wadena             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GREGORY.GUST

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