River Flood Warning 101, NWS Grand Forks, ND

400 
WGUS83 KFGF 310241
FLSFGF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
941 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Dakota...

  Wild Rice River (ND) near Abercrombie affecting Richland County.

NDC077-310345-
/O.CAN.KFGF.FL.W.0101.220531T1624Z-220531T0241Z/
/ABRN8.2.ER.220531T1624Z.220602T1200Z.220604T2136Z.NO/
941 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Wild Rice River (ND) near Abercrombie.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:15 AM CDT Monday the stage was 5.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow morning to a crest of 14.0 feet Thursday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday
    afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 4663 9696 4663 9679 4612 9664 4611 9712


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Getting some convection with the lead shortwave that is lifting
through the Red River Valley ahead of the main system, so adjusted
POPs accordingly. A little bit of elevated instability, but not
much at this point. Storms have been staying sub-severe, but
dropping some moderate to heavy rain and will prime us for
possible water issues later on, so flood watch continues. Continue
to think the main show for severe convection will be later this
afternoon. While we will have a lot of clouds and precip, think
the upper low lifting up into our area will bring some good CAPE
values with it, and shear will be massive. Will continue to
message and prepare for severe storms later today, mainly in
southern RRV into west central MN.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Activity on radar never really got going in our FA, with the main
bow passing more through St. Cloud and Little Falls. Was therefore
able to cancel both Severe Thunderstorm Watches a little early.
The remaining activity on radar has been decreasing a little in
coverage, so am not confident it will continue to push north and
west through the rest of the morning or dissipate. There will be a
lull in activity until this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

There should be two more rounds of severe weather, one during this
overnight period and another this afternoon and evening. This will
be the focus for the short term.

As of early this morning, surface low pressure was located over
western Kansas, with a trough extending northward through eastern
South Dakota and up through the Red River Valley. There was
abundant low level moisture, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s
and precipitable water values over an inch. A few stations have
even been reporting fog. There were multiple areas of storms to
the south, the first batch was moving up toward Alexandria. These
storms have been strong to severe further south, so they will bear
watching as they lift northeast. There is another batch of storms
down near Sioux Falls that is of much higher interest. The high
resolution models have been showing this batch organizing into a
bowing line segment, and lifting north northeast during the 4 to 8
am time frame. This activity may clip the southern Red River and
adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Think areas to the east of this
FA will be more under the gun from this batch, as the low level
jet is more focused east of the FA overnight. However, will
definitely be monitoring.

After the early morning convection moves through, think there will
be somewhat of a break, before additional strong and severe storms
fire up again this afternoon and evening. Severe parameters are
all quite strong, so won't get into too much here. As far as
timing-wise, think somewhere in the 2 pm to 10 pm time frame looks
good. Updraft helicity probabilities off the HREF are highest in
the 4 pm to 10 pm time frame, from the southern Valley into
adjacent areas of west central and northwest MN. SPC has a
moderate risk for severe weather in this area. WPC has placed the
FA in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall as well, so planning
on issuing a Flood Watch for the area as well. Although the severe
threat may end this evening, rainfall should continue tonight into
Tuesday before ending from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Through the long term, we are expecting a zonal flow to set up
across the northern plains. This is thanks to a ridge of high
pressure building in the southern United States. The ridges
amplification will help dictate if the flow can be pushed further to
the north into southern Canada. If this where to happen, we would
see increases in temperatures to near normals. However, guidance
continues to suggest below normal temperatures through the long
term, with highs only reaching into the low to mid 60s. This time of
year we should be sitting in the low to mid 70s. The possibility is
there that the ridge amplifies in the south. Some guidance shows
this outcome but its less than 10%.

With zonal flow, we see the chance of clipper systems moving along
the flow from SW Canada. At this time there looks to be some chances
of showers end of the week and into the following weekend at times.
Guidance is struggling with these systems and how much they move
into our region. The chance is there, but its around 20-30% across
the forecast area. These types of systems have a hard time tapping
into moisture from the Gulf, but could bring slight instability to
the area and moisture from the Pacific NW. If this where to happen
some of these showers could have some thunder at times. We will
continue to monitor the long term as the flow transitions to zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Lots of things to look at for the TAFs. Right off the bat, there
has been fog and low clouds at KDVL and KGFK, and KTVF at times.
This should continue through the early morning hours. Not sure how
much of the current shower activity will hold together through the
rest of the morning. It may just as likely dissipate altogether.
The main show looks to be this afternoon and early evening. Tried
to toss in my best guess for when it may hit each TAF site (mainly
21Z to 01Z). All modes of severe weather are possible, but hail
and tornadoes are pretty hard to nail down, especially for a point
forecast. Threw in the mention of severe wind gusts, as bowing
segments and strong winds look very likely. By later in the
evening and overnight, the event should transition back to a rain
event with potentially gusty winds across the western FA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flood Watch through this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Flood Watch through this evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-
     027>032-040.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-310845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
333 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the far
southern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of west central
Minnesota during the overnight and early morning hours. 1.50 inch
diameter hail and 70 mph wind gusts are the main hazards with
these storms.

The next chance for severe thunderstorms will be this afternoon
and evening, with the potential for damaging winds up to 80 mph,
hail over 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes, possibly
significant. Localized flash flooding is also possible. This
looks to be a particularly dangerous afternoon and evening for all
modes of severe weather. People need to pay close attention to
the weather and have a way to receive warnings. Make sure to go
through your severe weather action plan, especially for people in
the lakes country of Minnesota. Have a shelter where you can go if
dangerous weather approaches. Do not wait until it is too late to
get your plan in place.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
443 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014-NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054-
301500-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-Pennington-
Red Lake-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock,
Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen,
Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Thief River Falls,
Red Lake Falls, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton,
Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River,
Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams,
and Lankin
443 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

Wide ranging visibilities can be expected across the area early
this morning. Localized dense fog, with visibilities around a
quarter of a mile, are possible. Use caution if planning travel
this morning and slow down if you encounter low visibilities.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
456 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ024-031-032-301045-
Wadena MN-East Otter Tail MN-Hubbard MN-
456 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Hubbard,
Wadena and eastern Otter Tail Counties through 545 AM CDT...

At 455 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Garfield to near Rose City to near Long
Prairie. Movement was north at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Parkers Prairie and Wrightstown around 510 AM CDT.
  Almora around 515 AM CDT.
  Verndale, Aldrich and Staples Airport around 520 AM CDT.
  Deer Creek around 525 AM CDT.
  Bluffton, Blue Grass and Wadena around 530 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central, north central, northwestern and west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4680 9479 4639 9478 4638 9473 4637 9473
      4637 9515 4611 9515 4611 9551 4671 9529
      4672 9517 4675 9516 4685 9478 4684 9466
      4680 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 198DEG 54KT 4599 9547 4608 9516 4605 9485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

VG