Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Strong to severe convection knocking on the door of our western
counties, and severe thunderstorm watch was just issued. There
will be continued threat for severe with MU CAPE up to 3000 J/kg
and more than enough shear. Greatest threats will be hail up to
ping pong ball sized and winds up to 70 mph possible.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

No major changes to this forecast update. Skies remain clear
across most of the area with mostly light winds outside of the
eastern fringes of the CWA. Obviously concern will be shifting
towards the initiating convection in Saskatchewan (see MCD from
SPC).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Convective chances later tonight through Saturday morning are the
main forecast challenge, as they would bring the most potential
impacts to the FA.

No activity is expected through the late afternoon and early
evening. By mid to late evening (post 9 pm), the low level jet and
850mb warm advection begin to increase, focused into northwest
and north central North Dakota. A short wave should also be moving
into this region, helping to initiate thunderstorms to the west of
this FA. This activity would then continue to push east-southeast
into this FA in the mid to late evening. A timing estimate would
be 9 to 10 pm around Devils Lake, and 11 pm to midnight in the
northern Red River Valley. The HREF UH tracks show some longer
sustained updrafts possible from these storms as they track into
the Devils Lake region, and possibly the northern valley. So a few
strong to severe mid to late evening storms remain possible.

By 4-5 am early Saturday morning, the low level jet and warm
advection become stronger, and this time focus into the ND/SD
border region south of Bismarck. The CAMs develop a new area of
convection there, and track it east-southeast along the ND/SD
border and adjacent areas of west central MN into early Saturday
morning. Again, the HREF shows some longer UH tracks with this
area, but more so into northeast SD. There may be a lull in
activity during the late morning into early afternoon. Clearing
skies and plenty of residual moisture in place should result in
building afternoon CAPE over the FA, with 30-35 knots of 0-6km
effective shear. The potential surface features are a little
harder to place, but there could still be a lingering low and
front. CAMs show isolated shower/storm development in the late
afternoon and possibly early evening. Again, the HREF UH tracks
show a few longer tracks, especially across northwest MN. Most of
this activity should diminish in the early evening, with loss of
heating (and no low level jet).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Between Sunday through Friday, the probability for widespread
hazardous weather is currently low, less than 10%. Overall synoptic
features that are likely to drive sensible weather across our region
include strong and amplified upper ridging over the northeast
Pacific, transient but redeveloping upper troughing near the Hudson
Bay, and an persistent weak but broad anticyclone in the southern
tier of the CONUS. This type of pattern will promote generally zonal
to northwesterly flow aloft over our region as the jet stream is
expected to generally be positioned lee of the NE Pacific upper
ridge and along the southern flanks of the Hudson Bay troughing.
Augmentation of the jet is likely dependent upon amplitude and
position of the Hudson Bay troughing.

There are two notable waves being progged by ensembles assoc with
the Hudson Bay troughing. The first is already east of the area by
Sunday (and is responsible for tonight-Saturday's convection). This
should help scour away overall moisture content while allowing
cooler than average temps into the area. General expectation is for
daytime temps into the 70s with lows in the 50s, perhaps flirting
with upper 40s in typically cold spots like NW MN. Factors like sfc
dew pts and currently seasonal peak ET lower confidence in overnight
lows. The next notable wave comes around the late Monday - Tuesday
timeframe. There is a window of return low level flow ahead of this
wave to aid in some moisture/instability return, although the window
is rather short. This along with ET effects lowers confidence is not
high how much moisture/instability can recharge into the area ahead
of this notable wave, and will be the main factor in determining
intensity and coverage of convection given high confidence in
available shear as the strong wave moves near the region. However,
this should be the next appreciable chance for convection given the
magnitude of forcing expected with this wave. Even the ensemble
cluster with least amplitude brings in notable forcing for ascent.
Behind this wave, a short period of cooler than average temps are
expected followed by general increase in temps towards seasonably
average as some of the NE Pacific ridge attempts to push east into
the western continent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Primary aviation impact will be TSRA for all TAF sites. At the
moment, the sites most likely to experience TSRA tonight in the
03z-09z timeframe will be DVL and GFK, possibly expanding to TVF.
There is lower confidence in TSRA making it all the way to BJI,
however it does appear likely (>60% chance) that at least SHRA
will arrive at Bemidji in the 06-09z timeframe. Additional TSRA is
expected near FAR in the 09-12z timeframe, however confidence is
too low at this time to include TSRA at FAR. At least VCTS appears
likely there. Once again, tomorrow afternoon, the potential is
there for additional SHRA and TSRA, however confidence is too low
to determine where it will be.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
825 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231330-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
825 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening in the Devils Lake
basin after 9 pm, then into the Red River valley around or after
midnight. The strongest of these storms will be capable of wind
gusts to 70 mph and hail around an inch and a half in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday morning into the early
afternoon with the best chances for severe storms in the southern
valley and lakes country of Minnesota. Any of these storms may
have winds to 60 mph and hail up to an inch in size.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.