Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
751 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Well developed QLCS has finally propagated to the east from its
stationary position over the Devils Lake basin earlier this
afternoon. It has resulted in wind gusts measured up to 88 mph,
a few brief tornadoes mainly embedded within converging
boundaries, hail, and flooding. A displaced outflow boundary
trackable on radar is very apparent, of which will likely hold
dust which has a history of decreasing visibility under 1 mile bringing
its own impacts. This QLCS is still tapping into moist, very
unstable air mass to its south and east. And with sufficient
available shear, organized convection is expected to last through
the evening into Minnesota.

With this expectation, an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for southern Valley into west- central and
northwest MN. This QLCS still holds potential for severe weather
including gusty winds over 70 mph, hail, and possibly some
embedded tornadoes as propagates to the east/southeast into this
evening. Flooding may also continue, however may not be as much of
a concern as before with heavy rainfall rates progressing quicker
than early in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Convection will be the main headache for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring some weak vorts
into the region this afternoon and tonight, but the main upper low
will be to our northwest until tomorrow. The warm front has lifted
into northeastern ND, with rich moisture and instability across
most of the CWA. Storms have been firing near the warm front
across northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with the somewhat
limited (25-35 kts) of deep layer shear, storms have been a bit
messy and only briefly organized. However, there continues to be
plenty of instability with updrafts firing, and severe threat will
remain through this evening.

Later on this evening, the surface low currently over central SD
and cold front over northwestern ND will push eastward into our
CWA. CAMs have the storms that have so far been pretty slow moving
along the warm front, accelerate and push eastward by midnight.
Think at this point the messy convection with sporadic hail
threat will become more of an organized MCS, with damaging winds
the main headache. Severe storms will push eastward out of our
region by tomorrow morning.

Impacts will be a lot less tomorrow as the main upper low moves
across southern Manitoba. Some showers and thunderstorms will be
continuing near the international border as we get some good lapse
rates with warm air at the surface and colder mid levels. However,
no severe storms are expected with this activity. Cold air
advection will bring drier and more stable air into the region,
along with temps back into the 60s and 70s along with blustery
northwest surface winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the early
part of the period, with cooler than average temperatures on
Sunday warming up for the start of the work week as the upper low
pulls away from the Northern Plains. Lingering showers along the
northern border as cold upper temps continue for a bit longer on
Sunday, then a bit of a break before the next reinforcing
shortwave Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Upper flow becomes more west to
southwesterly during this period, although predictability is
pretty low. There will be several weak shortwaves moving through,
but not much signal in the ensembles for any large variations
from climo. With low predictability and an active short term,
will keep the blended solution of periodic low precip chances and
near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Widespread thunderstorms continue across the area through 06 UTC,
including the potential for severe thunderstorms. Impacts are
likely around TAF sites, mainly from erratic gusty winds over
30kt, lightning, and decreased visibility from heavy rainfall and
blowing dust.

After convection, there is the expectation for low level moisture
to contribute to MVFR CIGs at some sites. Gusty winds are also expected
tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...CJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-250945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across much of eastern
North Dakota and west-central and northwest Minnesota. The main
hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts
of 70 to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Storms
will initially be more scattered and capable of producing all
hazards, but will eventually form into a line that will carry all
hazards as well. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE EMMAVILLE         47.09N 94.90W
06/24/2022                   Hubbard            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUTAGE REPORTED AT CAMP WILDERNESS ON MANTRAP LAKE.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1116 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 AM     HAIL             BATTLE LAKE             46.29N 95.72W
06/24/2022  E2.50 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PUBLIC

            HAIL FROM QUARTER TO TENNIS BALL SIZED ACROSS THE
            COMMUNITY OVER A FEW MINUTE TIMEFRAME.

0640 AM     HAIL             HENNING                 46.32N 95.44W
06/24/2022  E2.75 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AROUND THE HENNING AREA.
            PHOTOS AND REPORTS POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0659 AM     HAIL             6 S OTTERTAIL           46.34N 95.56W
06/24/2022  E2.75 INCH       Otter Tail         MN   PUBLIC

0710 AM     HAIL             6 NW WADENA             46.50N 95.22W
06/24/2022  E1.25 INCH       Otter Tail         MN   PUBLIC

0815 AM     HAIL             GREENBUSH               48.70N 96.18W
06/24/2022  E1.75 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TOAD LAKE               46.86N 95.49W
06/24/2022                   BECKER             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF TRESS DOWN ON CAMPER TRAILERS. POWER LINES
            DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND NEARBY WIND
            SENSOR REPORTS.

1020 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSAGE                   46.92N 95.26W
06/24/2022  M67.00 MPH       BECKER             MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MESURED AT THE RWIS STATION IN OSAGE ON HIGHWAY
            34.

1037 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW PARK RAPIDS       46.89N 95.08W
06/24/2022  M61.00 MPH       Hubbard            MN   ASOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE PARK RAPIDS AIRPORT /KPKD/.

1042 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW PARK RAPIDS       46.89N 95.08W
06/24/2022  M59.00 MPH       Hubbard            MN   ASOS

            SECOND PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE PARK RAPIDS AIRPORT
            /KPKD/.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     HAIL             1 S NEW YORK MILLS      46.51N 95.37W
06/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       Otter Tail         MN   PUBLIC

&&

GREGORY.GUST