Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
751 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Well developed QLCS has finally propagated to the east from its
stationary position over the Devils Lake basin earlier this
afternoon. It has resulted in wind gusts measured up to 88 mph,
a few brief tornadoes mainly embedded within converging
boundaries, hail, and flooding. A displaced outflow boundary
trackable on radar is very apparent, of which will likely hold
dust which has a history of decreasing visibility under 1 mile bringing
its own impacts. This QLCS is still tapping into moist, very
unstable air mass to its south and east. And with sufficient
available shear, organized convection is expected to last through
the evening into Minnesota.

With this expectation, an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for southern Valley into west- central and
northwest MN. This QLCS still holds potential for severe weather
including gusty winds over 70 mph, hail, and possibly some
embedded tornadoes as propagates to the east/southeast into this
evening. Flooding may also continue, however may not be as much of
a concern as before with heavy rainfall rates progressing quicker
than early in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Convection will be the main headache for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring some weak vorts
into the region this afternoon and tonight, but the main upper low
will be to our northwest until tomorrow. The warm front has lifted
into northeastern ND, with rich moisture and instability across
most of the CWA. Storms have been firing near the warm front
across northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with the somewhat
limited (25-35 kts) of deep layer shear, storms have been a bit
messy and only briefly organized. However, there continues to be
plenty of instability with updrafts firing, and severe threat will
remain through this evening.

Later on this evening, the surface low currently over central SD
and cold front over northwestern ND will push eastward into our
CWA. CAMs have the storms that have so far been pretty slow moving
along the warm front, accelerate and push eastward by midnight.
Think at this point the messy convection with sporadic hail
threat will become more of an organized MCS, with damaging winds
the main headache. Severe storms will push eastward out of our
region by tomorrow morning.

Impacts will be a lot less tomorrow as the main upper low moves
across southern Manitoba. Some showers and thunderstorms will be
continuing near the international border as we get some good lapse
rates with warm air at the surface and colder mid levels. However,
no severe storms are expected with this activity. Cold air
advection will bring drier and more stable air into the region,
along with temps back into the 60s and 70s along with blustery
northwest surface winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the early
part of the period, with cooler than average temperatures on
Sunday warming up for the start of the work week as the upper low
pulls away from the Northern Plains. Lingering showers along the
northern border as cold upper temps continue for a bit longer on
Sunday, then a bit of a break before the next reinforcing
shortwave Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Upper flow becomes more west to
southwesterly during this period, although predictability is
pretty low. There will be several weak shortwaves moving through,
but not much signal in the ensembles for any large variations
from climo. With low predictability and an active short term,
will keep the blended solution of periodic low precip chances and
near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Widespread thunderstorms continue across the area through 06 UTC,
including the potential for severe thunderstorms. Impacts are
likely around TAF sites, mainly from erratic gusty winds over
30kt, lightning, and decreased visibility from heavy rainfall and
blowing dust.

After convection, there is the expectation for low level moisture
to contribute to MVFR CIGs at some sites. Gusty winds are also expected
tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...CJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-250945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across much of eastern
North Dakota and west-central and northwest Minnesota. The main
hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts
of 70 to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Storms
will initially be more scattered and capable of producing all
hazards, but will eventually form into a line that will carry all
hazards as well. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW GRAND FORKS       47.97N 97.11W
06/24/2022  M62 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDDOT RWIS ON INTERSTATE 29.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSE OSLO              48.15N 97.10W
06/24/2022  M64 MPH          Polk               MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
732 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE PEKIN              47.81N 98.30W
06/24/2022  M54.00 MPH       Nelson             ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION AT 10 METERS.

&&

GREGORY.GUST