Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Convection will be the main headache for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring some weak vorts
into the region this afternoon and tonight, but the main upper low
will be to our northwest until tomorrow. The warm front has lifted
into northeastern ND, with rich moisture and instability across
most of the CWA. Storms have been firing near the warm front
across northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with the somewhat
limited (25-35 kts) of deep layer shear, storms have been a bit
messy and only briefly organized. However, there continues to be
plenty of instability with updrafts firing, and severe threat will
remain through this evening.

Later on this evening, the surface low currently over central SD
and cold front over northwestern ND will push eastward into our
CWA. CAMs have the storms that have so far been pretty slow moving
along the warm front, accelerate and push eastward by midnight.
Think at this point the messy convection with sporadic hail
threat will become more of an organized MCS, with damaging winds
the main headache. Severe storms will push eastward out of our
region by tomorrow morning.

Impacts will be a lot less tomorrow as the main upper low moves
across southern Manitoba. Some showers and thunderstorms will be
continuing near the international border as we get some good lapse
rates with warm air at the surface and colder mid levels. However,
no severe storms are expected with this activity. Cold air
advection will bring drier and more stable air into the region,
along with temps back into the 60s and 70s along with blustery
northwest surface winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the early
part of the period, with cooler than average temperatures on
Sunday warming up for the start of the work week as the upper low
pulls away from the Northern Plains. Lingering showers along the
northern border as cold upper temps continue for a bit longer on
Sunday, then a bit of a break before the next reinforcing
shortwave Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Upper flow becomes more west to
southwesterly during this period, although predictability is
pretty low. There will be several weak shortwaves moving through,
but not much signal in the ensembles for any large variations
from climo. With low predictability and an active short term,
will keep the blended solution of periodic low precip chances and
near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR conditions for the moment, but convection is already going
across portions of western MN and there will continue to be storms
developing throughout eastern ND through the afternoon. Have VCTS
or -TSRA mention in tempo or prevailing groups at all sites
through the afternoon and into the evening. Some decrease in
convective activity after 06Z as the system pushes off to the
east. There could be some MVFR ceilings behind the convection, so
have categories going down for a while tomorrow morning. Think all
sites, except perhaps KBJI, should return to VFR by the end of the
period. Winds that are gusty from the southeast will shift around
to the northwest overnight, picking up again by mid day tomorrow
and again gusting above 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-250945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across much of eastern
North Dakota and west-central and northwest Minnesota. The main
hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts
of 70 to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Storms
will initially be more scattered and capable of producing all
hazards, but will eventually form into a line that will carry all
hazards as well. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
524 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W MICHIGAN            48.03N 98.16W
06/24/2022  M50 MPH          Nelson             ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION AT 3 METERS.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
539 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TORNADO          2 N LARIMORE            47.94N 97.63W
06/24/2022                   Grand Forks        ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORM SPOTTERS REPORT TORNADO OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
            2 AND WEST OF HWY 18.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
604 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SE KEMPTON            47.76N 97.52W
06/24/2022  M54 MPH          Grand Forks        ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN AT 3 METERS.

&&

GREGORY.GUST