Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Convection will be the main headache for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring some weak vorts
into the region this afternoon and tonight, but the main upper low
will be to our northwest until tomorrow. The warm front has lifted
into northeastern ND, with rich moisture and instability across
most of the CWA. Storms have been firing near the warm front
across northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with the somewhat
limited (25-35 kts) of deep layer shear, storms have been a bit
messy and only briefly organized. However, there continues to be
plenty of instability with updrafts firing, and severe threat will
remain through this evening.

Later on this evening, the surface low currently over central SD
and cold front over northwestern ND will push eastward into our
CWA. CAMs have the storms that have so far been pretty slow moving
along the warm front, accelerate and push eastward by midnight.
Think at this point the messy convection with sporadic hail
threat will become more of an organized MCS, with damaging winds
the main headache. Severe storms will push eastward out of our
region by tomorrow morning.

Impacts will be a lot less tomorrow as the main upper low moves
across southern Manitoba. Some showers and thunderstorms will be
continuing near the international border as we get some good lapse
rates with warm air at the surface and colder mid levels. However,
no severe storms are expected with this activity. Cold air
advection will bring drier and more stable air into the region,
along with temps back into the 60s and 70s along with blustery
northwest surface winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the early
part of the period, with cooler than average temperatures on
Sunday warming up for the start of the work week as the upper low
pulls away from the Northern Plains. Lingering showers along the
northern border as cold upper temps continue for a bit longer on
Sunday, then a bit of a break before the next reinforcing
shortwave Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Upper flow becomes more west to
southwesterly during this period, although predictability is
pretty low. There will be several weak shortwaves moving through,
but not much signal in the ensembles for any large variations
from climo. With low predictability and an active short term,
will keep the blended solution of periodic low precip chances and
near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR conditions for the moment, but convection is already going
across portions of western MN and there will continue to be storms
developing throughout eastern ND through the afternoon. Have VCTS
or -TSRA mention in tempo or prevailing groups at all sites
through the afternoon and into the evening. Some decrease in
convective activity after 06Z as the system pushes off to the
east. There could be some MVFR ceilings behind the convection, so
have categories going down for a while tomorrow morning. Think all
sites, except perhaps KBJI, should return to VFR by the end of the
period. Winds that are gusty from the southeast will shift around
to the northwest overnight, picking up again by mid day tomorrow
and again gusting above 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-250945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across much of eastern
North Dakota and west-central and northwest Minnesota. The main
hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches and damaging wind gusts
of 70 to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes are also possible. Storms
will initially be more scattered and capable of producing all
hazards, but will eventually form into a line that will carry all
hazards as well. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HAIL             2 N ISLAND LAKE         47.82N 95.02W
06/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       Beltrami           MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE SEVEN CLANS CASINO.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             1 N ALIDA               47.40N 95.23W
06/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       Clearwater         MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
139 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             6 W MENTOR              47.70N 96.27W
06/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL OFF AND ON OVER SEVERAL
            MINUTES.

&&

GREGORY.GUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

MNZ004-007-008-241930-
East Marshall MN-Kittson MN-West Marshall MN-
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Marshall and southeastern Kittson Counties through 230 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Old Mill State Park, or 24 miles northwest of Thief River Falls,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Strandquist around 220 PM CDT.
  Karlstad around 230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4859 9639 4855 9639 4854 9629 4845 9612
      4828 9645 4838 9667 4865 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 213DEG 9KT 4840 9650

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

VG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
207 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ADAMS             48.39N 97.97W
06/24/2022  E0.75 INCH       Walsh              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GREGORY.GUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N ADAMS               48.49N 98.07W
06/24/2022  M52 MPH          Walsh              ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT AN NDAWN STATION AT 10 METERS.

&&

GREGORY.GUST