Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

.UPDATE...

Yet another morning with a low level stratus deck that could again
limit destabilization and delay convective triggering for some
parts of the CWA and also focus some earlier development near the
edges from differential heating. So far have seen the first cells
in the NW and are expecting more widespread coverage going into
the afternoon and potentially lingering into the evening with
outflow boundary interactions. Only minor adjustments made to the
forecast as it looks largely on track and previous discussion
follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 752 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022/

..Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

The southeast remains entrenched in an incredibly moist airmass,
situated on the western edge of the Bermuda High at the surface, and
in a weakness between two ridges aloft. All this to say, it's
shaping up to be another day with sporadic convective initiation
along residual outflow and mesoscale differential heating
boundaries. Afternoon thunderstorm chances look to be maximized
along and north of I-85, aided in part by a shortwave disturbance at
the mid-levels just to our west. Patchy fog is possible around
daybreak this morning in areas that received heavy rainfall
yesterday afternoon, but thanks to lingering showers east of the ATL
Metro (still present at time of AFD publication), potential remains
for anvil debris to prevent necessary radiational cooling from
occurring. With no prominent synoptic features, steering flow
remains extremely weak. When combined with PWATs at or above 2"
areawide, longer-lived storms will need to be monitored for flash
flooding potential. SBCAPE is progged to be on the order of 1500-
2500 J/kg, enough oomph to produce gusty to strong downburst winds
upon storm collapse.

Thanks to increased cloud cover from inflated rain chances, highs
today look to max out in the mid-80s to low-90s, just at or slightly
below average for early August. Overnight lows are forecasted to be
around 70, just a few degrees above climo.

96

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

No major changes were made to the forecast. At the mid levels, a
ridge continues to build over the western US while a trough deepens
into the southeast US with both the GFS and ECMWF depicting this
pattern sticking around through Wednesday next week at least. The
front looks to enter northern Georgia Thursday and move further
south across our CWA Thursday into Friday. This is an abnormally
deep trough for this time of year and thus the front looks to push
through our CWA before stalling out over central/southern Georgia.
Likely PoPs are still forecasted over our entire CWA on Thursday due
to the front pushing across our area and Friday has likely PoPs more
confined to the southern portions of our CWA, following the front.
Convection will be centered around the front throughout the period
with the threats being gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, and
heavy rainfall. Flash flooding could become a concern with PWATs in
the 2" range leading to some storms becoming efficient rainfall
producers. Behind the front comes a drier airmass into the weekend
for northern Georgia, with chance PoPs around central Georgia where
the front looks to stall out. High temps will be in the 80s with
lower temps to the north and lows will be in the 60s with lower
temps in the mountains. Overall, it will be a pleasant weekend with
the drier weather and cooler temps. Looking ahead to Tuesday the
trough looks to push in moisture from the north ending our drier
airmass.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy fog and BKN/OVC IFR to LIFR cigs are scattered along and
north of the I-85 corridor, likely to persist through 14Z. Cigs
then expected to rise and scatter out to 3-5kft Cu field around
15Z. SHRA/TSRA activity will pick up once again around 18Z, though
best timing for northern terminal sites looks to be 20-02Z. Winds
stayed near calm overnight, but will pick back up out of the SW
at 4-7kts through the TAF period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence TSRA timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  70  89  70 /  60  30  50  40
Atlanta         87  72  88  71 /  70  30  70  50
Blairsville     81  66  81  65 /  70  40  80  50
Cartersville    87  70  86  70 /  70  40  70  50
Columbus        89  72  91  72 /  60  30  60  40
Gainesville     85  70  86  70 /  60  30  70  50
Macon           90  71  92  72 /  50  20  50  30
Rome            88  72  88  71 /  70  40  80  60
Peachtree City  87  70  89  70 /  60  30  60  50
Vidalia         92  73  94  73 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...96/Baker
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening across north and central Georgia. Some
storms could become strong and a few isolated severe storms
cannot be ruled out with the main threats of strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through Thursday. As usual during
the summer, any storm will have the potential to become strong to
severe and be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to central Georgia
and portions of north Georgia for Friday and then mainly far
south central Georgia for the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ015-091930-
Lumpkin GA-
253 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lumpkin County
through 330 PM EDT...

At 253 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Auraria, or near
Dahlonega, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Garland, Porter Springs, Nimblewill, Camp Merrill and
Auraria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8387 3462 8388 3459 8386 3447 8391
      3447 8393 3445 8392 3442 8398 3446 8410
      3451 8415 3465 8416 3465 8415 3466 8413
      3465 8410 3466 8407 3464 8405 3464 8404
      3467 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 188DEG 10KT 3450 8404

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ005-012-091930-
Gordon GA-Murray GA-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Murray and
northeastern Gordon Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Nickelsville, or 10
miles northeast of Calhoun, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Calhoun, Chatsworth, Eton, Resaca, Ramhurst, Fort Mountain State
Park, Redbud, Nickelsville, North Georgia Speedway and Audubon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8462 3452 8473 3455 8495 3462 8495
      3462 8493 3463 8491 3468 8494 3468 8491
      3466 8490 3467 8489 3471 8494 3471 8486
      3472 8486 3473 8487 3474 8485 3478 8488
      3480 8484 3481 8486 3484 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 188DEG 10KT 3461 8483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ002-004-011-012-019-091930-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Floyd,
southwestern Whitfield, southeastern Walker, northwestern Gordon and
northeastern Chattooga Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Marvin, or 8 miles
northwest of Calhoun, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dalton, Calhoun, Resaca, Mill Creek, Oostanaula, Subligna, Villanow,
Sugar Valley, Everett Springs, Lake Marvin, Tilton and Nickelsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8491 3471 8493 3468 8489 3467 8489
      3466 8490 3468 8491 3468 8494 3463 8491
      3462 8491 3462 8486 3461 8484 3444 8506
      3455 8523 3481 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 218DEG 10KT 3456 8509

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ056>058-091930-
Butts GA-Spalding GA-Henry GA-
306 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Spalding,
southeastern Henry and southern Butts Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Walker Mill, or 7 miles
east of Griffin, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Griffin, McDonough, Jackson, Locust Grove, Jenkinsburg, East Griffin,
Towalaga, Luella, Walker Mill, McKibben, Stark and Blacksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 8411 3331 8386 3320 8402 3320 8412
      3318 8412 3318 8415 3326 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 219DEG 10KT 3326 8413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ006-007-091945-
Gilmer GA-Fannin GA-
317 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Gilmer
and eastern Fannin Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Dial, or 7 miles
southeast of Blue Ridge, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Dial, Hemp, Margret, Pisgah and Hurst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8415 3486 8413 3484 8415 3481 8414
      3480 8413 3480 8410 3477 8409 3473 8409
      3473 8411 3467 8414 3465 8431 3482 8439
      3494 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 250DEG 5KT 3477 8427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

GAZ022-023-034-091945-
Hall GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
318 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Forsyth,
northeastern Gwinnett and southwestern Hall Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 318 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Buford, or 8 miles
southeast of Cumming. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Cumming, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Flowery Branch,
Oakwood, Rest Haven, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks, Aqualand Park,
Oscarville, Lake Lanier Islands and Hog Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 8384 3404 8391 3405 8412 3406 8413
      3427 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 184DEG 3KT 3412 8402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH