Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.SHORT TERM /Rest of today through Tuesday Night/...

Ongoing convection so far has only prompted a few SPS issuances,
though with outflow boundary interaction there could be some aided
updrafts that lead to other stronger development and cannot rule
out a few severe again today. Coverage should decrease by about 10
pm. Any remnant moisture from precip this evening could focus
patchy fog development overnight into Tuesday morning, though not
expecting as much of a low level stratus deck as we have seen in
recent mornings as fetch looks more SW with Bermuda ridge shifting
more southward. Enhanced moisture field remains across the CWA for
Tuesday along with decent SBCAPE near 2000-2500 J/kg so should
have another day of mainly diurnally driven convection. Could see
some strong storms to a few severe intensity again with same
threats of strong to damaging wind, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rain.

Max temps Tuesday near to slightly below normal with much of the
area reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast. The
Wednesday-through-Friday period will bring a transition from weak
upper-level flow to meridional flow as the Short Range Ensemble
Forecast (SREF) depicts a ridge building across the western two-
thirds of the CWA while a trough digs across the Great Lakes region,
Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. GEFS and EPS 500 mb heights and
normalized anomalies indicate a fairly deep trough for this time of
year, which should provide the upper-level support necessary for the
front to make it through the majority of the CWA. Maintaining chance
to likely PoPs on Wednesday and virtually area-wide likely PoPs on
Thursday as a tropical airmass remains in place across the Southeast
ahead of the approaching cold front. The lack of upper-level
dynamics with the FROPA suggests a low threat for widespread severe
storms, although strong to isolated severe storms will be possible
given ample insolation-driven instability and colliding outflow
boundaries. Gusty to damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall will all be potential threats with any strong to
severe storms. Flash flooding will be possible with storms that are
especially efficient rainfall-producers and/or are slow-moving or
stationary.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are shaping up to be mainly dry across
north GA as the front is progged to stall somewhere across
central/southern GA. As a result, maintaining slight chance to
chance PoPs through the weekend mainly across central GA where
lingering moisture and convergence in the vicinity of the front will
favor convection. Highs through the weekend will generally be in the
80s area-wide and lows will generally be in the 60s (with slightly
cooler air across the higher terrain of far north GA).

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions expected through period unless TSRA reduces vsbys
or patchy fog and possible morning low stratus occurs. Chance or
coverage of fog or low cigs looks too low at the moment to
include but may need to be included in future updates. TSRA
development should continue through this afternoon then decrease
by 02z. Otherwise cu field near 3500 ft with lingering FEW/SCT
cloud coverage overnight possibly near 4 kft and alto levels.
Another active convection day Tuesday with similar trends as today
and have prob30 for TSRA from 18-00z. Winds generally SW 4-6 kts
during daytimes and light SW to calm tonight, though VRB gusts can
be with any TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on patchy fog/low cig potential Tuesday morning.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  71  90 /  20  60  40  60
Atlanta         72  89  72  90 /  20  60  50  60
Blairsville     65  82  66  83 /  30  70  50  80
Cartersville    70  89  71  88 /  20  70  50  70
Columbus        72  91  72  93 /  20  60  40  50
Gainesville     70  87  70  88 /  30  60  50  70
Macon           71  92  71  93 /  20  50  40  40
Rome            73  90  72  90 /  30  70  50  80
Peachtree City  70  89  70  90 /  20  60  50  60
Vidalia         73  93  73  95 /  20  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1134 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening across north and central Georgia. Some
storms could become strong and a few isolated severe storms
cannot be ruled out with the main threats of strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through Thursday. As usual during
the summer, any storm will have the potential to become strong to
severe and be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to central Georgia
for Friday and then mainly far south central Georgia for the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

GAZ045-046-055-057-082030-
Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rockdale,
southern DeKalb, north central Henry and northeastern Clayton
Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 407 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Snapfinger, or 9 miles
west of Conyers, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Decatur, Avondale Estates, Lithonia, Lakeview Estates,
Belvedere Park, Candler-Mcafee, Druid Hills, Belmont, Ellenwood,
Arabia Mountain, Redan, Hidden Valley Park, Panola Mountain State
Park, Panthersville, East Lake, Gresham Park, Snapfinger and
Kirkwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 8433 3377 8405 3375 8403 3376 8401
      3359 8407 3360 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 113DEG 5KT 3368 8418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH