Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
816 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022/

SHORT TERM /Rest of today through Monday Night/...

Another day where a morning low level stratus deck could have
delayed destabilization and convective triggering across portions
of the area, though differential heating along the edges could
also focus development. Given how yesterday trended, will not
back down on the chance/likely pops and some may have to be raised
into the evening. Some strong and isolated severe intensity
possible like yesterday with strong/damaging winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

Keeping potential for another low stratus deck and patchy fog
tomorrow morning, then again a very similar setup for
shower/storm development as we stay in the enhanced deep moisture
on the western side of the Bermuda high, which looks to dampen
some. Should still be in the high PWAT airmass (near 2") along
with decent SBCAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Expecting same general threats
of strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall for some strong storms and a few possible severe.

Monday max temps could be a few degrees below climo given
aforementioned moisture/precip with highs mainly reaching the mid
80s to low 90s.

Baker

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast.
Relatively weak flow and ample moisture through the atmospheric
column will be the rule Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result,
scattered to numerous diurnally-driven showers and storms are
expected both days. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to depict
an upper-level pattern change Thursday into Friday as a ridge builds
across the western two-thirds of the country while a trough dips
across the East Coast states. This synoptic setup will translate to
a FROPA across the CWA Thursday into Friday, which warrants nearly
area-wide likely PoPs on Thursday. It appears that the front could
have the momentum/upper-level support to make it through the
majority of the CWA given the signal in the ensembles for a fairly
deep trough. Expect to see diurnally-driven showers and storms
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with the bulk of convection focused in
the vicinity of the front (which will likely stall somewhere across
central Georgia). A few strong to severe storms will be possible
each day with damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall all potential threats. Storms that are
particularly efficient rainfall producers and/or slow movers could
lead to flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas with
impervious surfaces and in areas that have increased top-soil
moisture from previous rainfall. Rainfall totals up to 0.50" are
forecast across much of the CWA through the long term period. Totals
of 1.00" to 1.25" are forecast across the higher elevations of north
Georgia where orographic uplift could enhance rainfall.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Generally VFR conditions with SCT TSRA across the forecast area
which should gradually begin dissipating through 02-04Z.
Overnight, the forecast is murky. Models don't currently represent
conditions well and don't seem to sync up with relative forecast
variables. Winds are forecast to be light to calm with VRB
winddir, which could produce areas of fog overnight with exact
placement hard to pin down. Therefore, have gone middle of the
road with widespread MVFR from approximately 09-16Z with VSBY and
CIG restrictions with improvement to VFR afterwards with SCT
TSRA. Winds expected to be mostly calm overnight gradually turning
southeast around 3-6kts tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to Medium confidence on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  71  90 /  30  60  50  60
Atlanta         73  87  71  90 /  30  60  50  70
Blairsville     66  83  66  84 /  30  60  50  80
Cartersville    71  88  70  88 /  20  60  50  70
Columbus        73  90  72  93 /  40  60  50  50
Gainesville     71  86  70  88 /  30  60  50  70
Macon           72  91  71  93 /  30  60  40  50
Rome            73  91  72  91 /  20  60  50  70
Peachtree City  71  87  69  91 /  30  60  50  60
Vidalia         72  91  73  94 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1116 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1116 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening across north and central Georgia. Some
storms could become strong and a few isolated severe storms
cannot be ruled out with the main threats of strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through the rest of the forecast
period. As usual during the summer, any storm will have the
potential to become strong to severe and be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ081-082-094-080000-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
721 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Bibb,
northeastern Peach and northeastern Crawford Counties through 800 PM
EDT...

At 721 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Skipperton, or near
Macon, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Lizella, Lake Tobesofkee, Jack Brown
Estates, Skipperton and Rutland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8393 3285 8391 3285 8389 3288 8385
      3286 8364 3268 8365 3268 8368 3269 8370
      3268 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 094DEG 6KT 3279 8373

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ066-080000-
Troup GA-
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Troup
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 724 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Long Cane, or near
Lanett, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, West Point, Piedmont Heights, Cannonville and Long Cane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 8504 3288 8508 3287 8519 3299 8521
      3301 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 094DEG 6KT 3292 8514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ081-080000-
Crawford GA-
725 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Crawford
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 725 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Sandy Point, or near
Roberta, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roberta, Knoxville and Horns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 8407 3263 8406 3264 8406 3264 8408
      3265 8408 3276 8407 3271 8384 3264 8385
      3262 8387 3261 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 094DEG 6KT 3269 8391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ071-081-082-080030-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Bibb, south
central Monroe and northeastern Crawford Counties through 830 PM
EDT...

At 753 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Tobesofkee, or 7
miles west of Macon, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Sandy Point, Wesleyan, Lizella, Lake Tobesofkee and Jack Brown
Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8369 3270 8371 3270 8399 3293 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 100DEG 5KT 3282 8378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
813 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ033-044-080045-
North Fulton GA-South Fulton GA-
813 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fulton
County through 845 PM EDT...

At 812 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Bankhead, or over
Atlanta. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, City of South Fulton, East Point, Midtown, West End, Sweet
Auburn, Turner Field, Piedmont Park, Bankhead, Cascade Heights,
Bolton, Atlantic Station and Virginia Highland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8444 3380 8435 3379 8435 3368 8442
      3372 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 033DEG 4KT 3377 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
839 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

GAZ032-043-080115-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-
839 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cobb
and northeastern Douglas Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 838 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Austell, or 7 miles
northeast of Douglasville, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Smyrna, Powder Springs, Austell, Lithia Springs,
Sweetwater Creek State Park and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8471 3389 8454 3374 8458 3373 8459
      3373 8460 3372 8460 3370 8462 3372 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 001DEG 9KT 3383 8466

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH