Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Latest KJGX radar shows storms firing up across the southern
portion of the FA this afternoon. Scattered convection is expected to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm given MUCAPE
values over 1500J/kg and DCAPE 800-1000J/kg. Frequent lightning,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Low
temperatures overnight will be in the low 70s.

Given no major changes in the synoptic set up, another day of
scattered showers and storms will be possible again on Friday.
Residual outflows and differential heating will help to initiate
convection. Slightly higher chances are expected across the
northern portions of the FA. High temperatures will be in the 90s.
Yay summer.

07

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Changes to the long term forecast at this time remain minimal, as
summer time diurnally-driven convection is expected each afternoon
in the longterm outlook.

Starting Saturday morning, the CWA remains smooshed between a mid-
level high off to the west, situated just east of the Four Corners
region, and a broad Bermuda High to the east. Occasional splitting
of the overall ridge pattern will occur due to shortwaves riding the
upper level flow throughout the period and a long-wave trough on
Saturday. With a lack of upper lvl support and weak sfc high
residing over the CWA, the main threat through the long term will be
diurnally driven convection, aided by any shortwave perturbations
that work down within the mid/upper flow and around the western
ridge. PWATS around 2.10" are currently expected, however higher
values are possible as model trends have generally been on the
uptick. Would not be surprised to see efficient rainmakers during
the afternoon that could produce isolated river and urban flooding.
However, changes may be coming as model agreement on the development
of a deeper trough over the Great Lakes region has solidified over
the past few days. Granted, take this with a grain of salt given how
far out this is, but a nice and deep cold front over the eastern
CONUS would be greatly appreciated.

Regardless, with the aforementioned saturated environment, expected
cloud cover will be higher keeping our temps soupy but near the
climatological norm of upper 80s to lower 90s.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions expected at all sites. After Cu field has developed
across the state this afternoon with storms starting to fire off
across south-central GA. TSRA possible through the afternoon.
Winds will generally be from the SSE to S though, a quick shift to
the SW will occur before 05/00z. Light SE winds through the
remainder of the period. Scattered convection will be possible
again tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on convection this afternoon.
High confidence on all other elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  50
Atlanta         73  91  73  90 /  20  40  10  50
Blairsville     67  83  66  84 /  40  50  20  70
Cartersville    72  89  71  90 /  20  40  20  50
Columbus        74  93  74  93 /  30  30  10  40
Gainesville     71  87  71  88 /  30  40  20  60
Macon           72  94  73  93 /  30  30  10  40
Rome            73  92  73  93 /  20  40  20  60
Peachtree City  71  91  71  91 /  20  30  10  50
Vidalia         72  92  73  93 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1034 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1034 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
evening across north and central Georgia. Isolated strong storms
resulting in frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoons and
evenings are expected each day through the rest of the forecast
period. As usual during the summer, any storm will have the
potential to become strong to severe and be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
634 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ110-042300-
Telfair GA-
634 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Telfair County through 700 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Jacksonville, or 13
miles north of Broxton, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 8305 3193 8293 3188 8281 3179 8290
      3178 8292 3179 8294 3178 8296 3179 8298
      3179 8299 3178 8299 3178 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 185DEG 5KT 3182 8295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ110-042315-
Telfair GA-
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Telfair
County through 715 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Workmore, or 9 miles
south of McRae, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McRae and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8282 3184 8287 3184 8292 3196 8306
      3205 8296 3205 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 159DEG 16KT 3193 8291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ050-060-042330-
Putnam GA-Greene GA-
657 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Putnam and
southern Greene Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 657 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Eatonton, moving north
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Phoenix, Reynolds at Lake Oconee, Rockville, Rock Eagle 4-H
Center and Warfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8322 3328 8323 3326 8322 3326 8341
      3342 8346 3345 8333 3343 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 180DEG 15KT 3332 8334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ059-060-072-042330-
Putnam GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Putnam,
north central Jones and southeastern Jasper Counties through 730 PM
EDT...

At 659 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Round Oak, or 9 miles
north of Gray, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Round Oak and Stanfordville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8353 3310 8363 3329 8367 3331 8357
      3328 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 179DEG 15KT 3315 8357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

GAZ022-023-033-034-042330-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
702 PM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Forsyth, northwestern Gwinnett, southwestern Hall and northeastern
Fulton Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Suwanee, or 9 miles
northwest of Lawrenceville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Suwanee,
Buford, Rest Haven, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks, Brookwood and Lake
Lanier Islands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8402 3397 8416 3416 8426 3421 8410
      3418 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 177DEG 17KT 3406 8410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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