Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A typical summertime pattern is expected for the short-term across
GA as high pressure and weak upper riding sets up across the
southeast. Given the lack of any synoptic forcing, any residual
boundaries will be the primary drivers for convective activity
during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Latest radar imagery still shows showers and a few storms in the
vicinity of the weak boundary near the I-20 corridor with more
storms firing up along the GA coast and GA/SC border. Thinking
the highest PoPs today will remain in these areas due to slightly
higher PWs and greater differential heating from less cloud
cover. Patchy fog and some low clouds will be possible overnight
into early tomorrow morning, particularly in areas that see
rainfall later on today. Low temperatures will generally be in the
70s tonight with upper 60s across the NE mtn areas.

Generally a rise and repeat forecast for Thursday given little
change in the weather pattern and PWs ranging between 1.75 and
1.90 inches. Higher rain chances are expected through the
afternoon across the area. High temperatures will be in the 90s.

07

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No major changes to the long term forecast at this time with summer
time diurnally-driven convection expected each afternoon.

Picking up the long term on Friday Morning, CWA remains socked in a
summertime pattern with a mid-lvl high off to the west situated over
the Four Corners region and a sprawling Bermuda High to the east. By
the weekend, the western high will continue to build eastward,
filling in the long-wave trough to the north and increasing the
coverage of the ridge to include the central and eastern CONUS. With
a lack of upper level support and weak sfc high residing over the
CWA, the main threat through the long term will be diurnally-driven
convection, aided by any shortwave perturbations that work down
within the mid/upper flow. The summer soup is strong, as PWATs hang
mostly around 2.00" through the long term, however may approach
2.10". Would not be surprised to see efficient rainmakers during the
afternoon that could produce isolated river and urban flooding,
especially with how saturated soils have become over the last couple
of weeks.

With the aforementioned saturated environment, expecting
temperatures to remain in the upper 80's and low 90's through the
forecast period courtesy of increased cloud cover, especially in
the morning, although near climatological norms for this time of
year.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mostly VFR ceilings across the area with a band of -RA north of
the terminals. Scattered TSRA along the coast will propagate
westward late this afternoon, so continued a TEMPO for TSRA at
most sites. Ceilings briefly improve this evening, then low
ceilings and fog is expected to develop after midnight through
roughly 14Z, improving thereafter. W-SW winds 5 kts or less will
continue through this evening and become calm overnight then shift
towards the E-SE around 5 kts by tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

86/DMartin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  90 /  30  40  20  40
Atlanta         72  91  73  91 /  20  40  20  40
Blairsville     67  86  67  84 /  20  60  30  60
Cartersville    71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  40
Columbus        73  92  73  93 /  30  40  10  30
Gainesville     71  88  71  88 /  20  40  30  50
Macon           72  93  73  94 /  30  40  20  30
Rome            72  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40
Peachtree City  70  91  70  91 /  20  40  20  30
Vidalia         73  92  73  93 /  30  40  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...DMartin