Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

A shortwave over SC/NC ejects eastward this afternoon/evening before
another impulse of energy at the base of the trough brings the
threat of severe weather tomorrow. Current radar loop shows a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms initiating across the forecast
area. A cu field across much of the area has allowed for sufficient
surface heating to occur today. As a result, isolated convective
activity is anticipated to ramp up again this afternoon, where some
storms could become strong to severe. SPC Day 1 Outlook has extended
the Marginal Risk to include portions of north Georgia. SBCAPE this
afternoon between 2000-3000 J/kg will be more than enough to support
strong updrafts in any storms that initiate and damaging water-
loaded downdrafts, frequent lightning, and periods of locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threats for today and tonight. In the
absence of day time heating, a lull in activity is expected
overnight. Convective activity will ramp up again tomorrow where SPC
has much of the forecast area in a Slight Risk. As moisture
inundates the low levels of the atmosphere, low level lapse rates
>7.5C, and SBCAPE between 3000-4000+ J/kg, severe thunderstorms
producing damaging wind gusts, isolated instances of hail, and heavy
rainfall will be a threat for tomorrow. More widespread coverage of
clusters of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow and activity could
begin earlier in the day.

While temperatures will hover near climatological normals (in the
upper 80s and low 90s), dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will make
heat indices soar over 100F. Have held off issuing a heat advisory
as most locations approach indices just under criteria and rain from
thunderstorm activity as well as cold pools overspreading large
areas may act to limit temperatures.

KAL

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Looking into the beginning of the long term on Friday, the shortwave
trough that will cause the Thursday active weather will lift into
the Virginia's. This will put us in the middle of two ridges
shown on the 500mb, one being the ridge centered over the four
corners but extending into MS, and the Bermuda high encroaching
upon eastern GA. At the surface the lee-side trough will still be
extending into our area into Friday and Saturday. This ultimately
means that there will be enough moisture and forcing to give us
the chance of afternoon thunderstorms which is common in the
summer time. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary is expected to sag
slowly southward into the area. An axis of deep moisture
associated with the boundary will remain in place, particularly
over the southern half of the forecast area.

Convection will be diurnally-driven in nature, with the greatest
coverage forecast within the area of greatest moisture in central
Georgia. As such, PoPs are forecast to be likely mainly south of I-
20 and chance PoPs to the north. With high temperatures increasing
into the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints lingering in the low 70s
in north Georgia and mid 70s in central Georgia, SBCAPE values could
increase to between 2500-3500 J/kg in the afternoon hours. The best
instability is expected to be located in central Georgia. With
negligible low-level shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates compared to
Thursday, the threat for widespread severe will be limited. However,
a few storms may become strong to severe. With ample moisture,
precip loading in downdrafts of stronger storms will contribute to
the threat of damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain and frequent
lightning will also be expected with any stronger storms that
develop.

Saturday into Monday will see the high start to build in at the 500
mb level. The influence on this high pressure will serve to inhibit
convective development over north and central Georgia during the
weekend, with PoPs being limited to slight in north Georgia and low-
end chance in central Georgia during the afternoon hours each day.
The lee-side trough will start to retreat back to Virginia as well
which along with the high building in will allow our temperatures to
start to slowly increase into the low to mid 90s across the forecast
area. The higher temps along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
will allow for apparent temps to approach the heat advisory criteria
of 105. As the week goes on, a heat advisory may be needed but that
will remain to be seen. Tuesday looks to have the lee-side trough
start to dip back into our area, which along with the high shifting
a bit west will allow us to have increased PoPs and the possibility
of afternoon scattered thunderstorms and showers. This day of
afternoon storms will be brief though as the Bermuda high sets in
over our area to continue the hot temperatures and high dewpoints.

Hernandez/King

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions at the start of the TAF cycle where
some sites could see MVFR cigs tomorrow morning. TEMPO TSRA for
all sites generally between 18-00Z. BKN250 at all sites overnight
though FEW/SCT MVFR could develop in areas with heavy rainfall
today. SHRA/TSRA possible after 12Z tomorrow at most sites. SW
winds 5-10KT through TAF cycle with higher gusts in any
thunderstorms that develop.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing. Medium confidence on MVFR cigs.
High confidence on all other elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  74  91  72 /  70  40  80  60
Atlanta         91  75  90  72 /  40  20  90  70
Blairsville     86  69  87  66 /  50  50  70  60
Cartersville    92  74  91  71 /  40  50  80  70
Columbus        92  75  92  74 /  30  20  70  60
Gainesville     89  74  89  71 /  50  50  80  60
Macon           93  74  93  73 /  30  30  70  60
Rome            95  75  93  72 /  50  50  80  60
Peachtree City  92  74  91  71 /  30  20  80  70
Vidalia         92  74  92  75 /  30  10  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1118 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1118 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area
this afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe
with damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning
as the main threats. Isolated flash flooding may be possible where
heavy rainfall continuously occurs over a location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area this week and into the weekend.
At this time, a more widespread severe threat exists on Thursday
with storms potentially developing into a more organized cluster
or line with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Otherwise,
some storms each day could become strong to severe capable of
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

GAZ108-109-202015-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Dodge
and southeastern Wilcox Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Antioch Church, or near
Abbeville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Rochelle, Rhine, Browning, Five Points, Antioch Church and
Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8351 3199 8350 3211 8318 3192 8318
      3190 8321 3188 8320 3188 8318 3185 8318
      3184 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 241DEG 23KT 3193 8339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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