Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Current radar loop shows some showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing across north and east GA this morning. We will see
another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. These
storms are associated with a weak shortwave thats been hanging
along the old frontal boundary laying across the area. This
boundary moves a bit further south today as a mid to upper level
ridge builds into N GA. This ridge will allow temps to increase
into the mid 90s Thu afternoon. Deep moisture will also be in
place across the area, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and
precipitable water ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Instability
indices increase Thu afternoon (Capes 1500 to 3000 J/Kg) so
combined with daytime heating and the old boundary the atmosphere
over the state will be a prime environment for severe weather to
occur. SPC has placed most of the state under a slight risk for
Thu with the greatest risk being heavy rain and winds.

Max high temperatures today will get up into the lower 90s with
nighttime lows mainly in the lower to mid 70s. With increased
Temps Thu and higher dewpoints, we may need a heat advisory for
most of the area.

01

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The word of the day...and the next week will be HOT!  The period
begins a little rocky with a surface boundary pushing through the
region and the potential for an organized severe threat Thursday
evening...which would be a continuation from the day.  Difficult to
pinpoint what and where any organized convection may be Thu PM, but
hi-res CAM's all hinting at storms around through Thu PM in some
capacity...as organized convection or scattered.  A severe wind
threat would exist in the early part of Thu eve with any
storms..particularly if they can become organized. Lots of lightning
would also be a significant threat Thu/Thu PM due to the more
significant lapse rates and instability lingering into Thu evening.

Friday through the remainder of the long term...  Surface boundary
settles into S. GA by Friday as mid level ridging begins to build in
from the west across the SE, but the moisture axis associated with
the boundary never really clears out through the extended per model
guidance.  As the center of a 594-596 DM 500mb ridge sets up just to
the north of the CWFA across TN over the weekend, a moist BL
continues to remain in place to the south of the E-W oriented ridge
axis to our north.  As a result, diurnal daily storm chances will
remain in the forecast through day 7.  The heat will be the main
story as the ridge sets in and the moisture remains in place making
for near or above heat advisory criteria beginning Saturday across
portions of or all of the area. Forecast dpts through the extended
remain in the 70s with air temps forecast to reach mid and in some
cases upper 90's....particularly Saturday onward.

-Stellman

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A few showers left over from the earlier convective activity but
nothing expected at the TAF sites this morning. Will see another
round of afternoon convection today so upgraded the prob30 to a
TEMPO in all the TAFs. Ceilings again will stay mainly VFR but
will see some MVFR right around sunrise and then again with the
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Winds will stay steady out of the W-SW
in the 5-10kt range. Will see some higher gut in and around any
afternoon thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  73  92  72 /  50  50  70  40
Atlanta         91  75  92  73 /  50  40  70  50
Blairsville     85  68  87  66 /  50  40  70  30
Cartersville    92  73  92  70 /  50  30  70  40
Columbus        92  76  92  74 /  40  20  70  40
Gainesville     89  73  91  71 /  50  40  70  40
Macon           93  75  94  74 /  50  20  70  40
Rome            95  75  95  72 /  50  40  70  40
Peachtree City  92  73  92  72 /  40  30  70  50
Vidalia         92  74  93  74 /  40  20  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1006 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210215-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1006 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A couple of isolated thunderstorms will remain possible overnight.
Locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds would
possible in any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
across much of the forecast area this week and into the weekend.
Some storms could be strong to severe with strong to damaging wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall as the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1239 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

GAZ047-200530-
Walton GA-
1239 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Walton County
through 130 AM EDT...

At 1239 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Between, or near
Monroe, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Loganville, Social Circle, Walnut Grove, Between, Good Hope,
Jersey, Ebenezer, Nicholasville, Youth, Pannell, Campton,
Herndonville and Gratis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8359 3385 8357 3383 8354 3365 8364
      3361 8367 3372 8387 3374 8390 3383 8393
      3386 8389 3390 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 271DEG 14KT 3379 8379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E SOCIAL CIRCLE       33.65N  83.67W
07/19/2022                   WALTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG AMBER STAPP ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200843

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
144 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW RUTLEDGE           33.64N  83.65W
07/19/2022                   WALTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED ALONG HAWKINS ACADEMY RD. EM
            REPORTED ROAD CLOSED DUE TO TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200844

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

GAZ050-060-200845-
Putnam GA-Greene GA-
406 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Putnam
and southeastern Greene Counties through 445 AM EDT...

At 406 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Reynolds at Lake
Oconee, or 8 miles southwest of Greensboro, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, White Plains, Siloam, Phoenix, Reynolds at Lake Oconee,
Liberty, Veazey and Carey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 8308 3335 8316 3343 8332 3348 8330
      3348 8328 3351 8328 3354 8327 3355 8328
      3358 8327 3353 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 290DEG 9KT 3347 8324

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH