Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

It's groundhog day all over again! By and large, a near carbon copy
of yesterday's conditions are present again today, with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across much of north and
central GA. Despite fairly widespread and long-lived convective
activity yesterday (and well into this morning), with no real source
of airmass modification, conditions were able to recover back to
soupy and unstable.

A mid-level ridge has presided over the pattern in the southeast for
the better part of the last month, but its center has begun to
retrograde back across the Desert southwest. As the eastern edge of
the ridge becomes the dominant flow branch, the southeast is placed
under deep but weak northwesterly flow. Such abundant subsidence has
helped to suppress widespread convective development, but has also
served to further convolute pinpointing where development will
occur. Any weak disturbance traversing our ridge setup will locally
enhance convective development, and it is possible that we see some
organization of storms into clusters, aided by both their own cold
pools and any remnant outflow boundaries from other Ridge Rider
activity. Owing to the position of the Bermuda High along the
Carolina coast, our steady plume of Gulf moisture will stagnate
PWATs in the 2-2.25" range to round out the work week. Analyzed
SBCAPE was already approaching 3000 J/kg on the 12Z sounding this
morning, and yesterday's 00Z sounding revealed upwards of 5000 J/kg
MUCAPE after convective temperatures were reached. All this to say,
conditions are more than sufficient to support explosive initial
upward pulses, and water-loaded downdrafts will increase the risk
for damaging wind gusts as cores collapse. A Slight Risk has been
analyzed by the SPC along and east of a line from Rome to Atlanta to
Eatonton, with a Marginal Risk in place for the remainder of the
CWA for the threat of strong to damaging winds.

Dewpoints across south central Georgia have held fairly steady in
the mid-70s (gross). As such, heat index values forecasted to peak
in the 105-108F range today have prompted a Heat Advisory to be
issued across almost the entire CWA through 7 PM. Heating may be
punctuated across portions of central Georgia as a result of
thunderstorm activity, but any clearing following storm dissipation
will result in even more oppressive dewpoints despite potentially
cooler temperatures.

96

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Convection Friday evening will likely linger into the overnight
hours through early Saturday morning across the area. For Saturday,
expect another day of diurnally driven convection during the
afternoon across the area. Additionally, shortwave perturbations and
the unchanged tropical airmass may aid in further organization of
storms during the afternoon resulting in the potential for gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall especially with any training or
slow moving storms. A more prominent shortwave rounding the base of
a broader trough across the far NE CONUS/SE Canada and attendant
surface cold front are forecast to push southward towards the area
late Saturday into Sunday. This will bring yet another increase in
showers and thunderstorms to the area during that timeframe. Upper
level ridging will retrograde back west, and given the transition to
more northwesterly flow aloft, this will make way for a little bit
better influence from upper dynamics to push this surface feature
through much of the forecast area and stalling across portions of
south GA. Global guidance remains consistent with the timing and
location of this feature at this time.

We may see some lingering precipitation back behind the front,
particularly in the vicinity of it. This front will also be the
focus for any activity through the remainder of the day on Sunday.
It looks as though we can expect lower precipitation chances and a
brief respite in the heat and humidity for a few days thanks to some
drier air working its way into the region. Diurnal PoPs will still
be possible on Monday through Wednesday as is typical for
summertime. Beyond this, guidance starts to diverge as far as upper
level pattern.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions to continue through the period. Isolated to
scattered SHRA/TSRA has initiated across the area and will likely
continue well into the evening with such an unstable airmass in
place. A TEMPO for TSRA and VRB gusts for ATL is valid 19-23Z,
with VCSH through 4Z to attempt to capture lingering convection.
Winds will be primarily from the W/NW at less than 10 kts through
the TAF period and nearly calm overnight. Potential for MVFR cigs
and patchy MVFR vsbys in the morning depending on where axis of
heavy rain falls. SHRA/TSRA chances to pick back up once again
around 17-18Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence potential morning MVFR cigs/vsbys.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  75  94 /  40  60  50  70
Atlanta         75  93  76  91 /  40  60  50  70
Blairsville     68  89  69  87 /  30  60  50  80
Cartersville    73  93  74  93 /  40  60  50  70
Columbus        77  93  76  94 /  30  60  50  70
Gainesville     74  93  75  92 /  40  60  50  80
Macon           75  94  75  95 /  30  60  50  70
Rome            75  94  75  95 /  40  60  50  80
Peachtree City  74  93  73  91 /  30  60  50  70
Vidalia         76  93  76  94 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Whitfield...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1049 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1049 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight
across north and central Georgia. Some strong to isolated severe
storms are possible with the primary hazards of damaging wind
gusts, locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding
and frequent lightning.

A heat advisory is in effect for all but the mountainous areas of
north and central Georgia. Heat indices between 105 and 109 will
be possible. Please use caution when exercising or working
outdoors and take frequent breaks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted across portions of
the area Friday and Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become strong to severe with damaging
winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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