Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A mid-level ridge has presided over the pattern in the southeast for
the better part of the last month. Such abundant subsidence has
helped to suppress widespread convective development, but has also
served to further convolute pinpointing where development will
occur. A disturbance rounding the edge of the 850 mb high (likely a
lingering MCV from MCS activity across the mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas) will focus convective development today as it edges
across the NE GA terrain and further southwestward into central GA.
As a proper northwesterly flow regime sets up once at 500 mb and
below, prime conditions for Ridge Riders are introduced. With more
than diffuse forcing, it is possible that we see some organization
of storms into clusters, aided by both their own and any remnant
outflow boundaries. Several members of the 12Z HREF suggest a rather
amorphous bow of convection making its way south of the ATL Metro
before losing its oomph around sunset. Analyzed SBCAPE across the
area currently sits at around 3000-4000 J/kg, more than sufficient
to support explosive initial upward pulses. With PWATs of 2.15" (!!)
on the 12Z sounding, exceeding the maximum moving average for today
on the SPC Sounding Climatology, water-loaded downdrafts will
increase risk for damaging wind gusts as cores collapse. The Slight
Risk has been dragged northward to include only a sliver of Union
and Towns in the northeast, but the Marginal Risk was extended
southward to include much of north and central GA on a line from
Rome to Atlanta to Macon and eastward to the CWA border. Any weak
disturbance traversing our ridge setup will locally enhance
convective development, and with a similarly moist and unstable
airmass in place, tomorrow looks to be, by and large, a near carbon
copy of conditions today. A D2 Slight Risk was introduced north of a
line extending from Rome to just north of Dublin, with a Marginal
Risk valid across the rest of the forecast area for potential for
damaging winds.

With the western edge of the Bermuda high edging onshore at the
surface, this paves the way for a steady plume of Gulf moisture to
be ushered in across the CWA and locked in place. As moisture
continues to build in and temperatures rise under steady influence
of the ridge, heat-related concerns have made their way back from
the periphery. Heat index values forecasted to peak in the 105-108F
range today have prompted a Heat Advisory to be issued across almost
the entire CWA through 8 PM. With little airmass change expected, it
seems probable that a series of Heat Advisories will be necessary
across the majority of north and central Georgia, aside from areas
of high terrain, to round out the week.

96

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

As we enter into Friday, we start to transition to more
northwesterly flow aloft,though not much change is anticipated
weatherwise. Expect another day of hot and humid conditions along
with greater chances for showers and storms during the afternoon
hours. The most notable thing to mention would be a little bit
higher coverage of activity and somewhat more organized convection
particularly across the north on Friday. This will occur as a result
of forcing from a shortwave expected to swing through the region and
present instability.

Looking more at temperatures...given the largely unchanged airmass
across the region and the many days of prolonged heat, additional
heat headlines will need to be considered for Friday and possibly
Saturday.

Some relief as far as heat and humidity look to be on the horizon
later this weekend. Global models continue to be in agreement with a
more stout shortwave diving south through the region on Saturday.
Similarly, an accompanying surface front will begin to move
southward through the forecast area Saturday into Sunday resulting
in more showers and storms across the area. The primary forecast
question to consider is how far south the front makes it and if it
makes it through much of the region at all. Rain and thunderstorm
chances on Sunday will be largely dependent on the placement of this
surface front. As of now, guidance pushes this front through much of
north and central GA by Monday resulting in lower rain chances to
start off next week. So fingers crossed that this comes to fruition!

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Isolated to scattered
SHRA and TSRA has begun to develop across the forecast area and
will persist through the evening, with a TEMPO from 19-23Z to
capture best window at ATL. FEW to SCT 4-6kft decks will stick
around through early morning Thursday, accompanied by SCT to BKN
10kft convective debris. Chance of MVFR or lower cigs in the AM
will depend on clearing overnight and placement of SHRA/TSRA
today. Winds should stay below 10kt from the W/SW outside of TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence lower morning cigs.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  96  76  96 /  30  40  50  50
Atlanta         76  93  76  93 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     69  89  68  88 /  30  50  50  60
Cartersville    74  92  73  94 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        76  94  77  96 /  30  40  30  50
Gainesville     75  92  75  93 /  30  50  50  60
Macon           75  96  76  98 /  30  40  40  50
Rome            75  94  75  96 /  30  50  40  50
Peachtree City  74  93  74  94 /  30  50  40  50
Vidalia         77  96  76  96 /  20  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

GAZ006-008-009-070100-
Union GA-Towns GA-Fannin GA-
825 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Towns, Union and
northeastern Fannin Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 824 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Loving to near Brasstown to Nantahala Lake, and moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawassee, Blairsville, Young Harris, Morganton, Hemp, Brasstown
Bald, Gumlog, Nottely Dam, Hurst, Ivy Log, Loving, Jones Creek,
Titus, Mountain Scene, Owltown, Track Rock, Tate City, Macedonia,
Plum Orchard Gap Shelter and Alexanders Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8355 3494 8360 3491 8360 3491 8363
      3490 8363 3487 8366 3484 8373 3475 8417
      3496 8429 3499 8422 3499 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 328DEG 22KT 3494 8424 3506 8391 3518 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH