Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Moist air continues to filter in from the Atlantic through the
boundary layer keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across all of the CWA. Temperatures have already warmed into the
upper 80s and lower 90s, and with the morning sounding at FFC
showing convective T of near 91, it is no surprise that we have
already seen convection popping in central and western GA where a
slight theta-e gradient and a little bit of moisture pooling and
convergence at the surface may reside. Elsewhere, the cu field is
definitely becoming agitated in places with clear glaciation
taking place per GOES Day Cloud Phase, and would not be surprised
if we get a little bit more convective coverage going soon. SBCAPE
values have surged to 3000+ J/kg across the area with little
noted CIN with 20- 30kts of EBWS across most of the CWA. Forcing
mechanisms are an issue for greater coverage, as we are relying on
boundary layer dynamics to get updrafts rolling, and the morning
sounding did note a very dry air layer aloft at just below 500mb
which may limit updraft strength through dry air entrainment.
Overall, can't rule out a few strong thunderstorms across the
area, and in central GA we likely could see a few cores get tall
enough to warrant severe warnings.

As upper level trough off the east coast continues to slide east
into the north Atlantic, upper level ridge will and surface high
will also slide east over the Appalachians bringing more
continental airmass with it. As a result, back door front looks
like it may impact the CWA during the early morning hours tomorrow
and stall over western GA. For eastern portions of the CWA, this
won't provide much relief temperature-wise, but will put a damper
on the humidity, and keep PoP chances lower. For western GA, PoP
chances will depend on your location relative to the front, with
better precip chances the further to the west you go where
moisture and surface forcing will be much better. Cloud cover
should act to limit maximum temperatures in these locations,
however, which in turn could impact PoP chances as well. Could be
a few showers or even storms as this back door front pushes west,
but uncertainty around convective coverage this afternoon has
confidence low for overnight/early morning impacts.

Lusk

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

An approaching weak upper level trough sweeping over the northern
Plains will erode the high pressure over central CONUS at the start
of the long term period. The upper level trough will bring a weak
frontal boundary to the CWA Monday, bringing chance to likely PoPs
to the forecast area, particularly over north Georgia. After that,
some uncertainty still remains over where the boundary is likely to
stall over central or southern Georgia thanks to weak forcing as the
atmosphere transitions to zonal flow aloft. Regardless of where the
boundary stalls, disturbances within the flow could bring unsettled
weather to the area throughout the long term period. Given the
uncertainty of the placement of the front at this time, have limited
the PoPs to chance throughout the period with the exception of
Monday afternoon/evening across north Georgia where there is more
agreement over the placement of the frontal boundary. While any
meaningful rainfall will be welcomed as much of northern and central
Georgia are experiencing D0 drought conditions and isolated pockets
of D1 drought conditions, the QPF total throughout the long term
period will only run about 0.5-1.0 inches. Given the likely isolated
to scattered nature of thunderstorm coverage, the possibility of
widespread relief in abnormally dry conditions will be limited. The
good news is that more seasonable temperatures will return to the
forecast area with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s across
north and central Georgia.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...

VFR across the metro sites with some TSRA developing SW of ATL.
Storm coverage may shift towards metro over next few hours, with
TEMPO for potential TS through 03z. Lower cigs may develop
overnight at metro TAF sites with potential to see brief period of
MVFR/upper end IFR cigs near sunrise. Wind through period will be
east 6-12 kts. Added PROB30 for afternoon diurnal convection
around 18-24z

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  69  91 /  20  20  20   5
Atlanta         72  88  72  91 /  30  50  20  20
Blairsville     65  83  63  84 /  30  40  10  30
Cartersville    71  88  69  91 /  40  50  20  30
Columbus        73  88  72  93 /  40  60  30  20
Gainesville     71  88  69  89 /  30  40  20  20
Macon           71  93  69  95 /  40  30  20   5
Rome            73  89  70  92 /  40  50  20  30
Peachtree City  70  88  68  91 /  30  50  20  20
Vidalia         73  92  69  94 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
north and central Georgia this this afternoon and evening. A few
storms could become strong to severe with the primary hazards
being damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be likely through the weekend and
into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ093-242315-
Macon GA-
642 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Macon
County through 715 PM EDT...

At 641 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Marshallville, or 9
miles southwest of Fort Valley, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Ideal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8422 3230 8426 3240 8425 3240 8420
      3241 8419 3237 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 121DEG 5KT 3245 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ067-242315-
Meriwether GA-
650 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Meriwether County through 715 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Saint Marks, or 8 miles
northwest of Greenville, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Luthersville, Lone Oak and Saint Marks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 8485 3321 8481 3321 8475 3311 8467
      3307 8469 3304 8475 3304 8482 3309 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 344DEG 5KT 3314 8478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
718 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ066-067-242345-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
718 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Meriwether
and east central Troup Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 718 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Odessadale, or near
Greenville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Saint Marks, Stovall, Mountville, Big Springs, Harris
City, Odessadale and Wooster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8485 3314 8461 3302 8461 3292 8468
      3292 8481 3295 8492 3305 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 017DEG 13KT 3303 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ080>083-093>096-105-107-109-250015-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
749 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Macon,
northwestern Dodge, southern Bibb, Pulaski, southwestern Twiggs,
northeastern Dooly, southwestern Bleckley, Peach, Houston, Crawford
and northeastern Taylor Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Roberta to near Hawkinsville, and moving west at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Perry, Fort Valley, Cochran, Hawkinsville, Roberta, Warner
Robins, Centerville, Byron, Unadilla, Marshallville, Reynolds, Robins
Air Force Base, Hayneville, Houston Lake, Mobley Crossing, Mock
Springs, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Moss Oak and Skipperton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 8405 3270 8420 3278 8416 3283 8386
      3276 8358 3230 8324 3214 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 083DEG 13KT 3274 8408 3229 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
807 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ031-043-250030-
Douglas GA-Paulding GA-
807 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Paulding
and northwestern Douglas Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 807 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Dallas. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Villa Rica, Hiram, Yorkville, New Hope and New Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8487 3398 8478 3388 8475 3374 8488
      3375 8490 3378 8490 3381 8501 3387 8504
      3390 8504 3390 8505 3391 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 052DEG 4KT 3390 8487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
814 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

GAZ067-068-250045-
Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
814 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Meriwether
and southwestern Pike Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 813 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Greenville, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Woodbury, Warm Springs, Gay, Raleigh, Harris City,
Odessadale, Imlac and Durand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8475 3308 8450 3297 8452 3297 8453
      3296 8453 3296 8452 3290 8453 3289 8474
      3301 8487 3302 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 020DEG 7KT 3304 8467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH