Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

007 
WWUS54 KEWX 171918
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
218 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

TXC171-172000-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220417T2000Z/
Gillespie TX-
218 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

At 218 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Crabapple, or 9
miles northeast of Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Blumenthal, Luckenbach, Eckert, Cain City,
Willow City, Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park and LBJ National Historical
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 9895 3047 9879 3036 9859 3025 9859
      3014 9872 3014 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 301DEG 24KT 3039 9882 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BRADY

244 
WWUS54 KEWX 171939
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

TXC171-172000-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220417T2000Z/
Gillespie TX-
239 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

At 238 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rocky Hill, or
near Fredericksburg, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Blumenthal, Luckenbach, Cain City, Rocky
Hill, Willow City, LBJ State Park and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9892 3041 9868 3037 9861 3036 9859
      3025 9859 3014 9872 3014 9881 3029 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 350DEG 19KT 3029 9879 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BRADY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
201 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

We have made some minor changes to the forecast, including updates to
the hourly winds, temperatures and dewpoints. The mention of morning
fog has also been removed from the forecast.

Convection is beginning to develop across portions of west central
Texas near Brownwood, with some enhancement noted on GOES 11.2um
satellite data south of Brownwood from Brady to near San Saba.
Surface obs show a reinforcing shot of cooler air/secondary cold
front in the above mentioned areas. This boundary will continue to
move southward and should aid in the development of convection
across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor for this afternoon and
early evening. The latest SPC Day1 outlook continues to show a
Marginal to Slight risk across much of south central Texas today.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather
concerns. The hi-res models generally keep the coverage of convection
fairly low across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. However, any
storms that manage to break the cap will have a good chance to become
severe.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Thunderstorms have formed along a cold front which is just entering
our CWA. Conditions over our CWA are favorable for some storms to
become severe and SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The
primary threat will be large hail with damaging winds also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Mid and high level clouds are keeping stratocumulus from forming
over the southeastern half of the area, while the lack of mid and
high level clouds has allowed low clouds to develop over the
northwestern half of the area. These conditions will persist through
sunrise, so we expect a slight increase in area covered by low
clouds, as well as patchy fog developing over the Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward.

A shortwave trough will move from the south central Rockies across
the Southern Plains today. The timing of the ascending branch of the
trough will be coincident with peak heating across our area at mid-
afternoon. A similar thermodynamic environment will be in place
today as Saturday, where the cap broke and a thunderstorm over
Bandera County nearly reached severe status.

Forecast profiles for 21Z today feature CAPE of 2000 to 2500 J/kg,
700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km, and DCAPE of 1200-1500 J/kg
for locations in the eastern Hill Country. These parameters point
toward severe storms with large hail and damaging winds, but very
minimal risk for tornadoes. CAMs indicate a common solution of
isolated storms developing over the Hill Country around 20-21Z, then
moving southeastward toward I-35 before weakening. Given the
isolated nature of the storms, we agree with SPC's Marginal Risk for
portions of our area. A few Serranias del Burro supercells may also
form, but projected storm motions should keep them in Mexico.

Storms will quickly dissipate after sunset this evening. While the
environment on Monday will have some potential for convection, the
lack of low level lift from a front or strong boundary, and no mid
or upper level lift, should result in no rain Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain near normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022
Much of the long-term portion of the forecast will be underneath a
stagnant upper air pattern. The sub-tropical ridge axis will be
centered to our southwest with a zonal like pattern over South-
Central Texas through much of the period. Subtle features will likely
help kick off some showers and thunderstorms several times in the
extended, but it is hard to pinpoint the exact locations and timing
within this regime. Weak confluence at the surface may lead to some
isolated to scattered activity on Tuesday, a weak shortwave embedded
in the zonal flow could lead to some isolated activity Thursday
night, and a weak boundary and possible stronger disturbance passing
to our north could lead to additional activity Friday night into
Saturday. High temperatures in the extended will begin near 80 on
Tuesday but will likely be in the 90s for most locations by the end
of the period. Lows Tuesday morning will be cool, in the 50s and
60s, but lows in the 60s and 70 will return on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

MVFR cigs will linger for another couple of hours at the I-35 sites,
with VFR skies out west at DRT. Cloud bases along I-35 should manage
to rise into VFR by mid-afternoon. Some convection is possible from
the Hill Country southward into the I-35 corridor this afternoon and
evening, with SAT/SSF slightly favored for TSRA over AUS. For now, we
will hold on to the mention of VCTS an amend as necessary as storm
coverage should remain fairly isolated. With the loss of daytime
heating, any lingering convection should likely dissipate between
00-02Z. Otherwise, a cold front will gradually move southward into
the region this evening and overnight. Some low-level moisture and
cooling associated with this front should bring a decent shot for low
cloud redevelopment early Monday morning, especially from SAT/SSF
westward to DRT. We will only include a TEMPO group for AUS between
12 and 15Z for MVFR, but go prevailing MVFR, then IFR for SAT and
SSF. Cigs will move in later at DRT and we will go with a 12Z onset
of MVFR at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  81  57  81 /  10   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  81  54  82 /  10   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  84  56  81 /  20   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            54  80  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  93  67  84 /  10  10  20  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  80  54  82 /  10   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             63  90  59  84 /  20   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  83  55  82 /  20   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  83  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  85  59  82 /  30   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           66  88  61  83 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
120 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181830-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
120 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible from mid afternoon through
early evening, particularly across the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country, and I-35 corridor. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary severe weather hazards from the stronger storms that
manage to develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
133 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

TXZ171-188-171930-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
133 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gillespie and
southwestern Llano Counties through 230 PM CDT...

At 132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hilda, or 14 miles south of Mason, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Cherry Spring, Prairie Mountain, Enchanted Rock State
Natural Area, Eckert, Crabapple and Doss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 9858 3017 9897 3050 9922 3050 9897
      3064 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 307DEG 22KT 3056 9914

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRADY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
153 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

TXZ186-188-171945-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-
153 PM CDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Kerr and
western Gillespie Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Doss to 12 miles southeast of
Segovia. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ingram, Hunt, Mountain Home, Tivydale, Waltonia, Harper, I-10 Near
The Kimble-Kerr County Line and The Intersection Of I-10 And Us 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9897 3003 9938 3029 9960 3029 9930
      3046 9930 3050 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 284DEG 22KT 3044 9925 3033 9949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRADY