Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

811 
WWUS54 KEWX 170109
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
809 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

TXC019-170200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220417T0200Z/
Bandera TX-
809 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...

At 809 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lost Maples
State Natural Area, or near Vanderpool, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Vanderpool and Lost Maples State Natural Area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9946 2965 9930 2964 9956 2988 9961
      2990 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 315DEG 9KT 2983 9952 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CP

860 
WWUS54 KEWX 170126
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
826 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

TXC019-170200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220417T0200Z/
Bandera TX-
826 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...

At 826 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Vanderpool,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Vanderpool and Lost Maples State Natural Area. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9946 2965 9930 2964 9956 2988 9961
      2990 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 298DEG 23KT 2979 9947 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CP

644 
WWUS54 KEWX 170145
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
845 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

TXC019-170155-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-220417T0200Z/
Bandera TX-
845 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2990 9946 2965 9930 2964 9956 2988 9961
      2990 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 331DEG 14KT 2973 9943 

$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

A pair of updrafts attempted to organize along a topographically-
induced convergence zone in Western Bandera County late this
afternoon, but ultimately failed to persist as they moved off the
boundary. Given that the boundary layer has begun to cool and
stabilize, have gone ahead and reduced PoP values across portions of
Hill Country through 06Z. Have also pulled previous slight chance
mentions of thunderstorms across this region as well. Apart from some
low stratus and patchy fog, quiet weather is expected through the
remainder of this evening and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Low-level cloud cover is showing signs of decreasing from west to
east across south central Texas early this afternoon. The cloud
cover will keep afternoon highs lower than previously anticipated,
so the existing high temperature records appear safe.

With daytime heating being held back by cloud cover, it will likely
be tough to get convection going across the region this afternoon
and early evening. However, with plenty of low-level moisture to
work with and a cold front approaching from the north, we will hang
on to a low chance for showers and storms from the southern Edwards
Plateau, most of the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor
between Austin and Georgetown. Should an updraft manage to break
through the mid-level capping inversion, a strong to severe storm is
possible, with wind gusts and hail being the main severe weather
concerns. Convection chances will wane quickly with the loss of
daytime heating. The above mentioned cold front will slowly move
southward into the region tonight. Cooler temperatures are in store
behind the front, but ahead of the boundary, warm overnight lows in
the mid 60s to lower 70s are in store. With fairly light winds in
the low-levels and plenty of moisture, we will include a mention of
patchy fog in the coastal plains and across portions of the Hill
Country.

On Sunday, we should see a lingering frontal boundary along with
some weak upper level disturbances embedded in the northwesterly
flow aloft. Timing of these disturbances is always a challenge, but
there is some continued support for shortwave activity Sunday
afternoon. While the GFS model is most aggressive with QPF output,
there is at least some support in QPF from the ECMWF as well. For
now, we will maintain low end rain chances for the Hill Country, I-
35 corridor and coastal plains during the afternoon and evening
hours. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will move in Sunday night,
bringing overnight lows down closer to climatological normals
across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

The upper flow for much of the long term period will be nearly zonal
with no significant forcing. Low level flow at the start of the
period will bring a surge of moisture up the Rio Grande. This may
produce convection over the mountains in Mexico and some storms could
spill over into Texas, but chances are low. This moist flow will
continue into Tuesday and the deepening moisture will bring better
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be best over the
western third of our CWA where moisture will be deepest. Deep
moisture will drift across the region to the east Tuesday night and
Wednesday taking low rain chances over this area. Southeasterly low
level flow will continue through the rest of the week and there will
be slight chances for convection each afternoon Thursday and Friday.
Most of the area will stay dry, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible.

Temperatures through the long term period will be above normal.
Monday and Tuesday will see a dip from the very warm temperatures
Sunday. Then we will warm again Wednesday through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Pesky cigs have lifted to sufficient heights such that all terminals
are currently reporting VFR conditions. A weak frontal boundary,
currently to the north of the CWA, is set to push partially into the
area before stalling overnight tonight. Current expectation is that
said front will make it to and through AUS later this evening, with
the major impact being the arrival of a slightly drier air mass.
Other terminals are likely to remain south of the front, where very
rich moisture will remain present in the near-surface layer. Have
thus introduced IFR conditions at SAT and SSF predawn tomorrow
morning. Despite slightly drier air behind the weak front, MVFR cigs
remain anticipated at AUS. A brief period of MVFR remains possible at
DRT near sunrise, however, uncertainty remains high enough such that
no mention has been made in this forecast. Will continue to monitor
observational and model trends through this evening and amend as
necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  87  60  83 /  10  40  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  87  57  83 /  10  40  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  89  61  85 /  10  30  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            59  86  55  81 /  10  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  99  67  94 /  10  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        60  85  56  82 /  10  40  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  94  62  91 /  10  20  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  88  59  84 /  10  40  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  88  60  84 /  10  30  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  90  63  86 /   0  30  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  92  65  90 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Quigley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-180000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, particularly across portions of the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary hazards in any storms that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
735 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

TXZ185>187-170115-
Kerr TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
735 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Bandera, west central Kerr and east central Real Counties through 815
PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lost Maples State Natural Area, or 12 miles north of Vanderpool,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lost Maples State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 9967 2997 9975 3005 9944 2978 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 255DEG 12KT 2991 9963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CP