Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Quad Cities, IA

764 
WWUS53 KDVN 190254
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
954 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILC073-190315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-220919T0315Z/
Henry IL-
954 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 954 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Henry County
Fairgrounds, or near Cambridge, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kewanee, Cambridge, Geneseo, Atkinson, Annawan, Henry County
Fairgrounds, German Corner and Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 9027 4147 9016 4140 8986 4134 8986
      4117 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 299DEG 24KT 4136 9015 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

McClure

099 
WWUS53 KDVN 190300
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILC073-190315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-220919T0315Z/
Henry IL-
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY...

At 1000 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Henry County
Fairgrounds, or near Cambridge, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kewanee, Cambridge, Geneseo, Atkinson, Annawan, Henry County
Fairgrounds, German Corner and Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4132 9024 4146 9012 4140 8986 4134 8986
      4117 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 300DEG 42KT 4135 9012 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

McClure

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
609 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Cold front pushing into northeast and western IA with very warm
and unstable airmass ahead of the front. Bulk shear of 55 kt
continues to spread eastward across IA with SBCAPE of 3500 J/kg
and steepening lapse rates. A strong short wave, seen on water
vapor movie loops, was diving into the northern Plains will
increase the mid level winds to 50+ kt across the area. LLJ will
also be increasing to 40+ kt this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Key messages:

1) All modes of severe expected this evening into the overnight
   hours. Several tornadoes, possibly strong, giant hail (>2 inch
   dia), and damaging winds. In addition, there is a flash flood
   threat in our southern counties.

2) The severe threat will ramp up after dark which makes it
   potentially more dangerous.

3) Please have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Tonight: Strong parameters coming together for a significant
severe event for mid Sept. HRRR/NAMNEST ramp up the supercells by
7 pm then progressing to the south and east. The main area for
severe storms looks to be from the I-80 corridor southward into
northeast MO. After midnight, thunderstorms with large hail may
continue after midnight in our southern counties. Also, models
have been consistent showing backbuilding/training of storms in
our southern counties well into the overnight hours (flash flood
watch in effect). A weakening cold front will push through the cwa
with winds becoming north to northeast. Lows will range from the
mid 50s at Independence to the mid to upper 60s in our south.

Monday: The front looks to stall in or near the cwa or wash out as
it runs into a building hot dome to our south. Still humid in our
southern counties while less humid in the north. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Monday night through Tuesday night...upper high remains centered
over Texas and Oklahoma with broad ridging over the Great Plains.
A weak wave topping the ridge may bring a chance of showers and
storms Monday night over northeast IA and northern IL. Warmest
day of the week will be Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s/low
90s. Heat indices will be a few degrees warmer in the middle 90s.

Wednesday-Sunday...a strong wave near the US Canada border will
drag a cold front through the Midwest just in time to begin the
Fall season. Models have come in a little faster with this fropa
and as a result Wednesday will be cooler and windy. 1000-500mb RH
progs continue to be meager along the front. Nonetheless, slight
chance/chance PoPs are forecast for a few scattered showers/storms
along the front. A much cooler and less humid airmass will bring
high temperatures in the 60s for the end of the work week. Lows in
the upper 40s/low 50s are forecast. Near to below normal temps
next weekend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows
in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Two aviation related focus items for tonight.

Main concern for tonight is impact of expected convection as wave
and associated cold front moves through. Storm risk is relatively
limited to areas along and south of I80 so will likely see at least
a brief period where MVFR to briefly IFR conditions could prevail in
areas of stronger storms. KBRL has highest risk and confidence for
prolonged impact depending on evolution of convective complex.

As convective risk wains overnight, ceilings should become VFR area
wide but will have to watch for development of any fog. This could
bring MVFR conditions into morning hours Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Headlines: Flash flood watch in effect 7 pm this evening until
7 am Monday morning. This is for our southern counties.

Flash flood watch in effect in our southern counties as 1-3 inches
of rain fell last night. The highest amount was 3 inches near
Keosauqua in southeast Iowa. We are expecting intense storms later
this evening, then models suggest backbuilding/training storms
going well into the overnight hours. With PWAT's over 2 inches
this historically has proven to cause intense rainfall with
additional rain amounts tonight of 2-4 inches. Be especially
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.

IL...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Hancock.

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Shea/ARX
HYDROLOGY...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
328 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-190830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
328 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening for areas south of a line from Belle Plaine
Iowa through the Quad Cities. All severe weather hazards will be
possible including large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
In addition, heavy rain may bring a localized flash flood threat
to southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Hot and humid conditions are forecast Tuesday, with afternoon
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening and tonight.

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
858 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             KEWANEE                 41.24N 89.93W
09/18/2022  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     HAIL             MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
09/18/2022  E1.25 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
918 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             DURANT                  41.60N 90.91W
09/18/2022  M1.75 INCH       CEDAR              IA   PUBLIC

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
922 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
09/18/2022  M2.00 INCH       SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BETTENDORF          41.56N 90.51W
09/18/2022                   SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH DOWN WITH WIND, TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
937 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             DURANT                  41.60N 90.91W
09/18/2022  M2.50 INCH       CEDAR              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PS