Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Quad Cities, IA

967 
WWUS53 KDVN 190136 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
836 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILC011-073-190200-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-220919T0200Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
836 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES...

At 836 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kewanee, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Kewanee, Johnson-Sauk Trail State Park, Neponset, Milo and 
  Providence.

LAT...LON 4115 8947 4115 8964 4123 8964 4123 8987
      4115 8987 4116 9016 4135 9008 4135 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 278DEG 17KT 4125 8996 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

944 
WWUS53 KDVN 190147
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
847 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILC011-073-190200-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-220919T0200Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
847 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kewanee, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kewanee, Neponset, Milo, Providence and Johnson-Sauk Trail State
Park.

LAT...LON 4115 8947 4115 8964 4123 8964 4123 8987
      4115 8987 4126 8997 4133 8993 4128 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 270DEG 29KT 4125 8989 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

658 
WWUS53 KDVN 190152
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
852 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

ILC011-073-190202-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-220919T0200Z/
Henry IL-Bureau IL-
852 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4115 8947 4115 8964 4123 8964 4123 8987
      4115 8987 4126 8997 4133 8993 4128 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 272DEG 37KT 4125 8984 

$$

Ervin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
609 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Cold front pushing into northeast and western IA with very warm
and unstable airmass ahead of the front. Bulk shear of 55 kt
continues to spread eastward across IA with SBCAPE of 3500 J/kg
and steepening lapse rates. A strong short wave, seen on water
vapor movie loops, was diving into the northern Plains will
increase the mid level winds to 50+ kt across the area. LLJ will
also be increasing to 40+ kt this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Key messages:

1) All modes of severe expected this evening into the overnight
   hours. Several tornadoes, possibly strong, giant hail (>2 inch
   dia), and damaging winds. In addition, there is a flash flood
   threat in our southern counties.

2) The severe threat will ramp up after dark which makes it
   potentially more dangerous.

3) Please have multiple ways to receive warnings.

Tonight: Strong parameters coming together for a significant
severe event for mid Sept. HRRR/NAMNEST ramp up the supercells by
7 pm then progressing to the south and east. The main area for
severe storms looks to be from the I-80 corridor southward into
northeast MO. After midnight, thunderstorms with large hail may
continue after midnight in our southern counties. Also, models
have been consistent showing backbuilding/training of storms in
our southern counties well into the overnight hours (flash flood
watch in effect). A weakening cold front will push through the cwa
with winds becoming north to northeast. Lows will range from the
mid 50s at Independence to the mid to upper 60s in our south.

Monday: The front looks to stall in or near the cwa or wash out as
it runs into a building hot dome to our south. Still humid in our
southern counties while less humid in the north. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Monday night through Tuesday night...upper high remains centered
over Texas and Oklahoma with broad ridging over the Great Plains.
A weak wave topping the ridge may bring a chance of showers and
storms Monday night over northeast IA and northern IL. Warmest
day of the week will be Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s/low
90s. Heat indices will be a few degrees warmer in the middle 90s.

Wednesday-Sunday...a strong wave near the US Canada border will
drag a cold front through the Midwest just in time to begin the
Fall season. Models have come in a little faster with this fropa
and as a result Wednesday will be cooler and windy. 1000-500mb RH
progs continue to be meager along the front. Nonetheless, slight
chance/chance PoPs are forecast for a few scattered showers/storms
along the front. A much cooler and less humid airmass will bring
high temperatures in the 60s for the end of the work week. Lows in
the upper 40s/low 50s are forecast. Near to below normal temps
next weekend with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows
in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Two aviation related focus items for tonight.

Main concern for tonight is impact of expected convection as wave
and associated cold front moves through. Storm risk is relatively
limited to areas along and south of I80 so will likely see at least
a brief period where MVFR to briefly IFR conditions could prevail in
areas of stronger storms. KBRL has highest risk and confidence for
prolonged impact depending on evolution of convective complex.

As convective risk wains overnight, ceilings should become VFR area
wide but will have to watch for development of any fog. This could
bring MVFR conditions into morning hours Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Headlines: Flash flood watch in effect 7 pm this evening until
7 am Monday morning. This is for our southern counties.

Flash flood watch in effect in our southern counties as 1-3 inches
of rain fell last night. The highest amount was 3 inches near
Keosauqua in southeast Iowa. We are expecting intense storms later
this evening, then models suggest backbuilding/training storms
going well into the overnight hours. With PWAT's over 2 inches
this historically has proven to cause intense rainfall with
additional rain amounts tonight of 2-4 inches. Be especially
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.

IL...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Hancock.

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Shea/ARX
HYDROLOGY...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
328 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-190830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
328 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening for areas south of a line from Belle Plaine
Iowa through the Quad Cities. All severe weather hazards will be
possible including large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
In addition, heavy rain may bring a localized flash flood threat
to southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central Illinois.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Hot and humid conditions are forecast Tuesday, with afternoon
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening and tonight.

GROSS