Tornado Warning 20, NWS Des Moines, IA

870 
WWUS53 KDMX 122357
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

IAC151-130015-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220413T0015Z/
Pocahontas IA-
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY...
    
At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Laurens, or 7 miles northwest of Pocahontas, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Pocahontas County, including the following locations...
Havelock and Plover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4280 9484 4291 9481 4291 9452 4276 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 212DEG 45KT 4281 9478 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Small

398 
WWUS53 KDMX 130006
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
706 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

IAC151-130016-
/O.EXP.KDMX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220413T0015Z/
Pocahontas IA-
706 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 715 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4280 9484 4291 9481 4291 9452 4276 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 214DEG 50KT 4291 9469 

$$

Small

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
310 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Forecast Impacts for the week:

...Moderate Risk into Tonight
...Cooler Weather Returns
...Chances for Rain/Snow return into the weekend

Confidence Short Term: Medium to High

Overall the evolution of the system in both a synoptic and mesoscale
space is still on track.  The big question that is becoming a bit
more clear is the northern location of the warm front around
initiation time. Previous model runs have placed the front/triple
point across far northwest Iowa (specifically the HRRR/GFS) as
compared to the Euro. Today the HRRR is farther south with the
boundary near 23z to 01z while the GFS is still closer to its
previous forecast and farther north. At 19z, the boundary is just
entering SW Iowa with a large shield of stratus and now elevated
convection over Iowa into MN with the stronger storms into southern
MN. Recent HRRR runs have shown that any stronger convection that
may develop over the north is now more focused nearer the US20
corridor, rather than the IA MN border. With that in mind, the
current moderate risk for that portion of the forecast appears well
placed and the westward extension back into west Iowa remains for
the area of secondary development expected along the dry line in the
evening from 01 to 02z across the west. Without going into great
detail, forcing and shear parameter space is is on the middle to
high end of the spectrum. With SBCAPE over 3200 j/kg into the early
evening along the retreating warm front and 0-1km SRH over 300 to
500 m2/s2 and long hodographs, there remains a potential for
discrete supercells and a strong and relatively longer lived tornado
or two in that area. If storms develop slightly north of the warm
front, then a large hail threat would likely dominate the mode. Any
supercells that develop will move northeast/east with time along or
near the warm front. As the dry line now in central Nebraska will
edge east and fire off a line of storms into our west by 01z. The
line of storms is anticipated to strengthen quickly to severe levels
and then slowly weaken as it moves toward the I35 corridor in
central and southern Iowa.  These storms later in the evening will
have a somewhat less potential to be tornadic, but a severe wind
threat and hail threat will continue. The northern portion of the
line may have an opportunity to tap into the strong 0-3km shear and
continue to have a tornado threat through at least the early morning
hours. This area would more likely be along and north of US20. As
the synoptic low drives northeast, a weaker surge of west northwest
winds will move over the region tomorrow with colder air. Lows
tonight will drop to the mid 30s west to the lower 50s east.  Highs
tomorrow will be in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Confidence: Medium

The remainder of the forecast will be dominated by dry weather
through Saturday with a chance of rain and snow Sunday. We continue
with northwest flow and cool weather into the remainder of the
extended with little warming. Highs will remain in the 40s and 50s
with cool April highs during the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Main concern will be storms and wind. Winds have increased ahead
of the main push of warm air and stronger gusts will continue
through 19-20z north. Elevated storms firing now in far northern
Iowa affecting mainly MCW and soon ALO with mainly gusty winds and
possible hail. Weak showers in the south at DSM lifting north.
Still some uncertainty about first batch of severe storms north
this evening, but timing would be 22z-00z initiation for FOD and
MCW while the main line in western Iowa will fire later between 00
and 02z, then transversing east through the night. Impacts from
the second line may be limited to areas west of I35...though a
smaller corridor or higher impact conditions may still ride
across northern Iowa. With conditional development still in play,
will update discussion as needed. /rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
309 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>035-044>046-057-058-070-071-081-
092-132015-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Crawford-Carroll-
Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Adams-Taylor-
309 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Iowa late this
afternoon and into the evening. Severe storms will be possible
with the potential for a few tornadoes, large hail to the size of
golf balls or larger and damaging wind gusts.

Gusty winds are expected this morning with a few gusts over 40 mph
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong and gusty winds are expected again by Wednesday night and
Thursday. Gusts in excess of 40 to 50 mph at times are possible,
especially across northern Iowa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed mainly this evening.

IAZ026>028-036>039-047>050-059>062-072>075-082>086-093>097-132015-
Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Boone-
Story-Marshall-Tama-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-Warren-
Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
309 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Iowa late this
afternoon and into the evening. These storms are expected to reach
the Interstate 35 corridor late this evening and overnight. A few
of these storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes the primary threats. Quarter sized hail may
also occur. At this time, the more significant severe weather is
expected west of this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong and gusty winds are expected again by Wednesday night and
Thursday. Gusts in excess of 40 to 50 mph at times are possible,
especially across northern Iowa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
555 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             5 ENE FONDA             42.63N 94.76W
04/12/2022  E1.00 INCH       POCAHONTAS         IA   PUBLIC

            VIA MPING.

&&

DODSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
557 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             FONDA                   42.58N 94.85W
04/12/2022  E1.00 INCH       POCAHONTAS         IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
602 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 NW POCAHONTAS         42.74N 94.68W
04/12/2022  M1.00 INCH       POCAHONTAS         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

AB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TORNADO          4 SW GILMORE CITY       42.69N 94.52W
04/12/2022                   POCAHONTAS         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF C49 AND N65 MOVING
            EAST-NORTHEAST.

&&

ANSORGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TORNADO          4 N THOR                42.75N 94.05W
04/12/2022                   HUMBOLDT           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ONE NORTH OF HWY 3 AND THREE EAST OF
            HUMBOLDT COUNTY LINE. NORTH NORTH EAST
            DIRECTION VIA POCAHONTAS PD ON TWITTER.

&&

DODSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TORNADO          GILMORE CITY            42.73N 94.46W
04/12/2022                   POCAHONTAS         IA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING E ON HIGHWAY 3.

&&

AB