Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
249 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Key Messages:

- Severe weather possible through this evening, then windy at
  times tonight.
- Light snow Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly southeast.
- Potential widespread snowfall around Thursday.

An active early spring weather pattern is underway. A large 500 mb
trough stretches from the plains of central Canada southwestward
down the Rockies and into the Las Vegas region. A strong leading
impulse that ejected out of the trough has closed off as its
moving near the Nebraska/South Dakota border this afternoon. At
the surface a cyclone has rapidly developed on the leading flank
of the 500 mb trough and is rocketing northeastward from
northeastern Kansas into Iowa, producing several waves of
thunderstorms with a potential for severe weather and tornadoes
from southwestern into central and south central Iowa in the next
several hours. The surface low and its trailing cold front and
attendant storms should sweep out of our service area later in the
evening, likely exiting our east around 02Z or so, after which
strong northwest winds will spread across the region, pumping in
colder air with some light wraparound precipitation in the form of
a wintry mix briefly affecting our northwestern and northern
counties tonight, but with little accumulation. Ongoing wind
advisory looks solid, but did push back the start time a couple
hours due to a bit slower evolution of the system than previously
forecast.

Sunday will be cool but quiet in Iowa, but by late in the day the
bulk of the vorticity associated with the southern extent of the
500 mb trough will have moved from the southwestern U.S. up into
the High Plains, and will subsequently scrape across Iowa and
Missouri later Sunday night into Monday morning. As it does so, it
will spread light precipitation across much of the state, but
mainly the southeast two thirds or so. Forecast soundings show
snow much more persistently today, as opposed to previous runs
indicating more potential for freezing rain at times, and have
trended the forecast to all snow for the event. Even so,
accumulations are expected to remain light, around an inch or two
in our southeast. The impacts should be minor, but if the snow
lingers into the Monday morning commute it may result in some
slick roads.

From midday Monday through Tuesday night a respite is in store,
with benign and dry weather and temperatures rebounding into the
40s on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday however, a large 500 mb
gyre will be set up over Hudson Bay, with a broad trough swinging
around its southwest flank into the northern U.S. Rockies. As this
rotates eastward it will affect our region later in the week, with
long range models painting a swath of accumulating snowfall right
across Iowa between Wednesday night and Thursday night. Forecast
temperatures and soundings indicate snow as the most likely
precipitation type, but there may be an opportunity for a rain mix
in southern Iowa if temperatures warm enough on Thursday. Will
refine the forecast for this system in the coming days.
Regardless, the passage of the aforementioned trough and
subsequent northwesterly steering flow will send temperatures
plummeting by the end of the week, with Friday afternoon highs
likely only in the 20s to perhaps lower 30s - well below seasonal
normals. Winter is not done yet folks.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Scattered thunderstorms and areas of low ceilings will produce
periodic IFR or lower conditions at the terminals this afternoon
and evening, which are described using VC and TEMPO groups in the
18Z TAFs. Amendments are likely based on short term convective
trends. The storms will move out around 00-02Z or so, after which
lingering MVFR ceilings will affect primarily the northern
terminals tonight before clearing out. Strong WNW winds are also
forecast overnight and may create LLWS and crosswind issues on
some runways, especially those with N-S orientation.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Sunday for
IAZ034>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.

&&

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Lee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1225 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057-058-070-061830-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-
1225 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is a slight risk for severe weather later this afternoon
into early this evening. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail
will be possible during this timeframe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Rainfall from the Saturday storms will runoff into area rivers
and cause within bank rises. Where river ice remains, particularly
over northern Iowa, it is possible ice jams could develop and
cause localized flooding Sunday or early next week.

A wintry mix and snow is possible Sunday night into Monday. At
least minor snow accumulations are possible with the highest
confidence in accumulations over southeastern Iowa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

IAZ059>062-071>075-081>086-092>097-061830-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
1225 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe weather later this afternoon
into early this evening. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail
will be possible during this timeframe.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for central and southern Iowa
tonight. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Rainfall from the Saturday storms will runoff into area rivers
and cause within bank rises. Where river ice remains, particularly
over northern Iowa, it is possible ice jams could develop and
cause localized flooding Sunday or early next week.

A wintry mix and snow is possible Sunday night into Monday. At
least minor snow accumulations are possible with the highest
confidence in accumulations over southeastern Iowa.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and early evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
423 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             1 NW ORIENT             41.21N 94.43W
03/05/2022  E2.00 INCH       ADAIR              IA   STORM CHASER

            2+ INCH HAIL REPORT VIA STORM CHASER ON
            TWITTER NW OR ORIENT, IA.

&&

AV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             ORIENT                  41.20N 94.41W
03/05/2022  E2.00 INCH       ADAIR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT OF 2 INCH HAIL IN
            ORIENT, IA SN#52263.

&&

AV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
427 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 WSW MACKSBURG         41.19N 94.30W
03/05/2022                   ADAIR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD 6
            MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MACKSBURG, IA
            SN#52264.

&&

AV

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
440 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          2 SW WINTERSET          41.31N 94.05W
03/05/2022                   MADISON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LARGE TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND SOUTHWEST OF WINTERSET, APPROACHING
            TIME. DEBRIS VISIBLE. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
452 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TORNADO          2 SSW WINTERSET         41.31N 94.03W
03/05/2022                   MADISON            IA   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO DAMAGE IN WINTERSETT TO SHED
            REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

&&

AV