River Flood Warning 20, NWS Cleveland, OH

708 
WGUS81 KCLE 181038
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station affecting Trumbull County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

  Mahoning River At Youngstown affecting Mahoning and Trumbull 
  Counties.

  Mahoning River At Leavittsburg affecting Trumbull County.

  Mahoning River At Warren affecting Trumbull County.

For the Tuscarawas River...including Massillon...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Mahoning River...including Leavittsburg, Warren, 
Youngstown...Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Site Specific Non-forecast Pt...including Phalanx Station...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon by 315 PM EST.

&&


OHC151-182015-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220218T2015Z/
/MLNO1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.220218T0745Z.220218T1415Z.UU/
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* WHEN...Until late this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Flooding begins in the Agathon Park area 
  to Route 21. Water encroaches on Route 62 in Navarre. Flood waters 
  may force the closing of two railroad crossings in Massillon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 18.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:15 AM EST Friday was 18.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this morning and continue falling to 16.1 feet early
    tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

OHC155-182045-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-220220T0604Z/
/PHAO1.1.ER.220217T2238Z.220218T1800Z.220220T0004Z.UU/
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Eagle Creek At Phalanx Station.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding begins on Braceville Robinson 
  Road. Portions of Barcley Messerly Road south of Eagle Creek Road 
  will be impassable. Some homes will be threatened.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Friday the stage was 12.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EST Friday was 12.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.4
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    13.5 feet on 07/11/2013.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4133 8100 4129 8093 4128 8087 4124 8092
      4124 8095 4125 8100


$$

OHC099-155-182045-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220219T0836Z/
/YGWO1.2.ER.220218T0242Z.220218T0800Z.220219T0236Z.NO/
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Mahoning River At Youngstown.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Roads near the river in Girard and Niles 
  in southern Trumbull County inundated. These include First and 
  Second Streets in Niles, and River and Front Streets in Girard. 
  Businesses south of Olive Street in McDonald inundated. Lowland in 
  Mahoning County inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 16.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:15 AM EST Friday was 16.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late this
    evening to 6.5 feet and then begin rising early Sunday
    morning. It will then rise again to 6.7 feet Sunday morning.
    It will fall to 5.5 feet and then begin rising early Tuesday
    morning then rise again.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.3 feet on 03/02/1910.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8081 4121 8077 4119 8068 4108 8055
      4103 8065


$$

OHC155-182045-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220219T0051Z/
/LEAO1.1.ER.220218T1720Z.220218T1800Z.220218T1851Z.NO/
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mahoning River At Leavittsburg.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Flood waters encroach on Meadowbrook Drive.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this
    afternoon to 12.6 feet this afternoon. It will then fall
    below flood stage this afternoon to 8.3 feet and begin rising
    again tomorrow evening. It will rise to 8.4 feet early Sunday
    morning. It will then fall to 7.6 feet and begin rising again
    early Monday afternoon. It will then rise again but remain
    below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 12.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.5 feet on 03/09/2009.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8100 4124 8092 4129 8084 4121 8086
      4116 8100


$$

OHC155-182045-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/WRNO1.1.ER.220218T1800Z.220218T1800Z.220218T1800Z.NO/
538 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mahoning River At Warren.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, River is out of banks, southern portions 
  of South Park Road threatened. Flooding can be expected at Walnut 
  and Beaver, along South Park Avenue and along Hayden Street.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 AM EST Friday the stage was 8.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.0
    feet this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.0 feet on 05/23/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4129 8084 4121 8077 4115 8081 4121 8086


$$

Sefcovic

775 
WGUS81 KCLE 181848
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

For the Tuscarawas River...including Massillon...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 1200 AM EST.

&&


OHC151-190500-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220219T0824Z/
/MLNO1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.220218T1800Z.220219T0224Z.UU/
148 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Flooding begins in the Agathon Park area 
  to Route 21. Water encroaches on Route 62 in Navarre. Flood waters 
  may force the closing of two railroad crossings in Massillon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 18.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM EST Friday was 18.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.5
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

Griffin

071 
WGUS81 KCLE 182014
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
314 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

  Nimishillen Creek Near North Industry affecting Stark County.

  Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck affecting Holmes and Wayne Counties.

For the Nimishillen Creek...including North Industry...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening by 945 PM EST.

&&


OHC151-190615-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220219T0824Z/
/MLNO1.1.RS.000000T0000Z.220218T1800Z.220219T0224Z.UU/
314 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Flooding begins in the Agathon Park area 
  to Route 21. Water encroaches on Route 62 in Navarre. Flood waters 
  may force the closing of two railroad crossings in Massillon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 18.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM EST Friday was 18.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.5
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

OHC151-190245-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220219T0245Z/
/NHSO1.2.RS.220218T0059Z.220218T0730Z.220218T2045Z.NR/
314 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast. This approaches the flood of record.

* WHERE...Nimishillen Creek Near North Industry.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Widespread flooding in southern portions 
  of Canton from Ridge Avenue north to Allenford Drive. Flood waters 
  cut off access to homes along Cheyenne Street and Allenford Drive. 
  Flood waters cut off access to properties on Cleveland Southwest 
  Avenue. Some low lying properties inundated.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 12.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:15 AM EST Friday was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 2.3 feet
    Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    12.9 feet on 02/28/2011.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4077 8139 4077 8134 4065 8132 4065 8138


$$

OHC075-169-190615-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220221T0430Z/
/KILO1.1.RS.220217T2307Z.220218T1400Z.220220T2200Z.NO/
314 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck.

* WHEN...Until late Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Private property on Water Street in the 
  Village of Killbuck flooded. Several county and local roads 
  impassable including State Route 60 south and County Road 621.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM EST Friday the stage was 17.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM EST Friday was 17.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Sunday afternoon and continue falling to 14.1 feet early
    Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    17.0 feet on 01/29/1994.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8203 4099 8193 4067 8190 4045 8191
      4045 8202 4067 8202


$$

Greenawalt

034 
WGUS81 KCLE 190202
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
902 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck affecting Holmes and Wayne Counties.

For the Killbuck Creek...including Killbuck...Moderate flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Saturday morning by 700 AM EST.

&&


OHC151-191200-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220219T1200Z/
/MLNO1.1.RS.000000T0000Z.220218T2230Z.220219T0600Z.UU/
902 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, U.S. Route 62 near Navarre inundated. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM EST Friday the stage was 18.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

OHC075-169-191215-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220221T0800Z/
/KILO1.2.RS.220217T2307Z.220218T2115Z.220221T0200Z.NO/
902 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Killbuck Creek Near Killbuck.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, private property on Water Street in the 
  village of Killbuck flooded. Several county and local roads 
  impassable including State Route 60 south and County Road 621.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM EST Friday the stage was 17.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late Sunday evening and continue falling to 13.3 feet by
    Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4099 8203 4099 8193 4067 8190 4045 8191
      4045 8202 4067 8202


$$

Jaszka

812 
WGUS81 KCLE 191148
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
648 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

For the Tuscarawas River...including Massillon...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon by 100 PM EST.

&&


OHC151-191800-
/O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220219T1800Z/
/MLNO1.1.RS.000000T0000Z.220218T2230Z.220219T1200Z.UU/
648 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Flooding begins in the Agathon Park area 
  to Route 21. Water encroaches on Route 62 in Navarre. Flood waters 
  may force the closing of two railroad crossings in Massillon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 18.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:15 AM EST Saturday was 18.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this morning and continue falling to 14.3 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

Garuckas

521 
WGUS81 KCLE 191757
FLSCLE

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Ohio...

  Tuscarawas River At Massillon affecting Stark County.

OHC151-191900-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220219T1757Z/
/MLNO1.1.RS.000000T0000Z.220218T2230Z.220219T1200Z.UU/
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Tuscarawas River At Massillon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 18.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:15 AM EST Saturday was 18.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this morning and continue falling to 14.3 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8165 4091 8156 4080 8148 4066 8147
      4065 8151


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will slowly move southeast across the area
through this evening with lingering troughing tonight into Friday.
High pressure will briefly settle across the region on Friday,
followed by another strong low pressure system and cold front on
Saturday. High pressure will return across the region by the end of
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Most of the near-term forecast remains valid. Just freshened
hourly temperature grids and precip type grids through midnight
tonight per latest trends in observations and model guidance. As
of 9:55 PM EST, the surface cold front had exited our entire CWA
and continues to progress southeastward. Any lingering light to
moderate rain will change to a freezing rain/sleet mix from NW
to SE as colder air at/near the surface, behind the cold front,
undercuts warmer air farther aloft. After several hours, the
mixed precip is expected to change to all snow as the
atmospheric column cools further via CAA and the wet-bulb
effect. Precip should be all snow in our entire CWA by the wee
hours of Friday morning. The main forcing for precip
development continues to be the storm system's warm conveyor
belt undergoing isentropic ascent over our area, while tapping
into abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and
frontogenetical convergence aloft along a low- to mid-level
shortwave trough axis that will traverse our region from west to
east through the wee hours of Friday morning.

Our region remains on track to receive storm-total ice accumulations
of a light glaze to a quarter of an inch and snow totals of a
coating to 4 inches. The greatest totals and impacts are still
expected to be focused within the Winter Storm Warning for
portions of northeast OH and northwest PA. Please see below
discussion for further details.

Previous Discussion...
Active weather continues across the area with the second round
of heavy precipitation arriving from the south and southwest.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire area
for the heavy mixed-precipitation threat, including snow, sleet,
and ice. A flood watch also remains in effect for the entire
area with areas south of the cold front (i.e. in the warm
sector), expected to pick up an additional inch to an inch of a
half of rainfall. This will lead to additional area river rises
and lead to potential ice jam issues.

The strong surface cold front has reached northern OH this
afternoon, with surface observations suggesting it currently
settling on a southwest to northeast axis from Findlay to just south
of Cleveland, to Erie, PA. A sharp temperature drop has been
observed immediately behind the front, with near freezing
temperatures already appearing in rain. Anticipate temperatures to
continuing dropping at areas behind the cold front. With strong warm
air advection above 850 mb expected to continue through the rest of
today, the freezing rain threat will become realized across much of
northern OH, NW OH, and NW PA. Recent MRMS correlation coefficient
trends suggest the mixed-precipitation/snow line is currently moving
east across northern IN, so heavy mixed-precipitation will cause
issues the rest of the afternoon and evening. The highest ice
accumulations will occur across northern OH and NW PA, ranging
anywhere from a tenth to two tenths of an inch.

As colder air begins to arrive, areas behind the initial push of
freezing rain are expected to switch over to heavy periods of sleet.
Much of the area could see at least a half inch of sleet
accumulation by this evening and overnight. Finally, as the mixed-
precipitation/snow line enters NW OH later this evening, anticipate
all precipitation to switch over to snow, continuing east throughout
the night. Some lake enhancement is possible along the lakeshore of
NE OH into NW PA tonight into Friday morning. Total snow
accumulations will range anywhere from 2 to 4 inches across northern
OH, decreasing to up to an inch in the vicinity and south of the US-
30 corridor.

Another aspect of the event to consider will be the flash-freeze
threat later tonight. As colder air arrives across the region
tonight, low temperatures will plummet into the low teens to upper
single digits. Wind chill temperatures will drop to near zero to
perhaps slightly below zero into early Friday morning.

Otherwise, a mostly quiet Friday is anticipated for much of the area
as brief high pressure settles in across the region. Temperatures
will remain below average with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

By late Friday night into early Saturday, our attention turns to the
next system which will bring a quick shot of snow, gusty winds, and
cold temperatures behind an arctic cold front. A fast-moving clipper
system will move east across the Great Lakes, with several
parameters suggesting the chance for snow squalls across NE OH and
NW PA early Saturday morning. Early indications from the RAP/NAM
suggest a snow squall parameter > 1, surface-based CAPE > 50 J/kg,
strong low-level frontogenesis, and 0-2 km westerly winds averaging
> 30 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the short wave and its associated front move across the CWA on
Friday night, winds will become west to northwesterly behind the
front on Saturday. Moisture will be limited as surface high pressure
moves eastward into the region during the day on Saturday. However,
with wind direction and colder air aloft being ideal for lake
effect, PoPs remain likely through Saturday afternoon across the
snowbelt for a light accumulation of snow. As the ridge continues to
develop into the region, winds will shift and become offshore by
Saturday evening. Sunday will be mild and dry as high pressure
drifts south of our CWA.

Temperatures on Saturday will be below average due to the cold
frontal passage on Friday. As high pressure moves into the area on
Saturday evening, sky cover will begin to clear and winds diminish
giving us perfect ingredients to have substantial radiational
cooling overnight Saturday. Low temperatures on Saturday night will
drop into the teens across area with some spots in NW PA dipping
below 10 degrees overnight. As the high stays over the area,
temperatures during the day Sunday will bounce back into the mid-to-
upper 40s. A warm front moving into the region Sunday evening will
cause low temperatures to remain above average and into mid-to-upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term looks to be rather active, especially mid week. High
pressure will be well east of the region to begin next week. Upper
level flow will return to a zonal pattern across the eastern half of
the United States will an upper level ridge extending over the
western US. We will remain dry through Monday afternoon ahead of the
next system. Southerly flow aloft and at the surface will begin to
advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the area by Monday
evening. An inverted surface trough will extend northeastward into
the region along with a piece of the upper level trough ejecting out
leading to precipitation chances Monday night into Tuesday. By
Tuesday, surface low pressure is over the region with plenty of
upper level moisture available causing widespread rain across
the entire CWA. By Wednesday morning the low will shift eastward
with any lingering precipitation ending from west to east
through the morning. High pressure will return briefly on
Thursday morning keeping us dry through the afternoon before
another system moves to end the day Thursday brining another
round of precip, most likely snow, to the area.

Temperatures in the long term will be mild and above average for
most of the period. Expect highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on
Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will be a bit colder with highs only
in the low 40s, but still above average for this time of year.
Wednesday night will be the coldest of the long term with lows in
the lower 20s. Thursday during the day will be cooler as well with
highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
At 23:50Z/Thurs, a surface cold front extended northeastward
from just west and north of KCMH to just south and east of KYNG
and KGKJ, while a low along the front was centered near KCMH.
As the low continues moving northeastward along the front, the
cold front should drift farther southeastward and exit the rest
of our region by 04Z/Fri. Behind the front, a surface ridge
builds eastward and its axis should traverse our region between
15Z/Fri and 00Z/Sat. Southerly surface winds veer abruptly to
northerly following the frontal passage. Farther behind the
front, northwesterly surface winds will back gradually to
southwesterly following the passage of the aforementioned ridge
axis. Regional surface winds should trend 10-15 knots and gust
up to 20-25 knots at times, especially this evening through mid-
morning Friday.

Primarily light to moderate rain will continue to change to a
freezing rain/sleet mix from northwest to southeast as colder
air at and near the surface, behind the cold front, undercuts
lingering warm air farther aloft. After several hours, this
mixed precip will change to all snow as the atmospheric column
cools further. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility
are expected with the precip. Snow should end gradually from
west to east between roughly 08Z and 18Z/Fri. Lingering VFR to
MVFR ceilings should follow the snow.

Outlook...Periods of snow with non-VFR possible through
Saturday night, especially in northeast OH and northwest PA.
Scattered rain and/or snow showers with non-VFR possible on
Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
After the cold front passes through the lake this afternoon, winds
will become northerly and increase to 20 to 25 knots. Winds become
northwesterly by Friday morning, diminishing to 10-15 knots. An
Alberta Clipper will increase winds overnight Saturday. Winds will
be southwesterly starting between 25 and 30 knots, and increasing to
30-35 knots by Saturday morning. Higher winds will continue through
Saturday evening. Winds become mostly westerly and diminish to 10-15
knots by overnight Sunday as high pressure settles over the area.
Winds once again shift ahead of the next system Sunday afternoon.
Winds will remain southwesterly ranging between 20 and 25 knots
through late Sunday evening.

Due to the lake being mostly ice covered, there are no
significant waves through this period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for OHZ010>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>031-036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for OHZ022-023-
     032-033.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for OHZ020-021.
PA...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for PAZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Iverson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-180930-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-
Crawford-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ029>031-036>038-047-180930-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ010>014-020-021-089-180930-
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ022-023-032-033-180930-
Portage-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-180930-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-180930-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
424 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
835 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     ICE STORM        3 N CHARDON             41.63N 81.22W
02/17/2022                   GEAUGA             OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CHARDON FIRE DEPT REPORTS THAT CLARK RD IS
            CLOSED EAST OF RAVENNA RD DUE TO DOWNED
            WIRES AND A LEANING POLE. MULTIPLE REPORTS
            OF DOWNED WIRES NEAR CHARDON ALONG WITH
            ROADS GETTING VERY ICY.

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
847 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FREEZING RAIN    BELLEVUE                41.27N 82.84W
02/17/2022  E0.10 INCH       SANDUSKY           OH   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED FROM PICTURE ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
            HEALTHY GLAZE OF ICE ON TREES.

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
902 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     FREEZING RAIN    VERMILION               41.41N 82.32W
02/17/2022  E0.10 INCH       LORAIN             OH   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREE BRANCHES DOWN FROM ICE
            ACCUMULATION.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     FREEZING RAIN    1 SSE SEVILLE           41.01N 81.86W
02/17/2022  M0.10 INCH       MEDINA             OH   PUBLIC

            RADIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. REPORT INCLUDED
            PICTURE OF ACCRETION ON A WIRE WITH A RULER.

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     FLOOD            6 ESE BRIMFIELD         41.06N 81.24W
02/17/2022                   PORTAGE            OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 44 CLOSED BETWEEN US 224 AND SR
            619.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1010 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLOOD            6 SSW CANFIELD          40.94N 80.82W
02/17/2022                   MAHONING           OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SR 165 BETWEEN SR 46 AND SR 164 CLOSED DUE
            TO HIGH WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

RC