Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Columbia, SC

894 
WWUS52 KCAE 062115
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
515 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

SCC003-009-011-075-062130-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220506T2130Z/
Barnwell SC-Bamberg SC-Aiken SC-Orangeburg SC-
515 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN BARNWELL...BAMBERG...EAST CENTRAL AIKEN AND SOUTHWESTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTIES...

At 515 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Denmark, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Barnwell, Bamberg, Denmark, Williston, Blackville, Branchville,
Barnwell State Park, Rivers Bridge State Park, Ehrhardt, Springfield,
Hilda, Salley, Neeses, Norway, Rowesville, Snelling, Olar, Perry,
Kline and Elko.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection seek shelter inside a sturdy building and stay
away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8119 3311 8136 3316 8139 3345 8158
      3365 8128 3325 8066 3313 8089 3309 8088
      3306 8090 3310 8094 3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 238DEG 51KT 3340 8117 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
356 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching
cold front this afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms will be
strong to severe. Saturday will be cooler and drier with a
chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the
northeastern Midlands. Several days of dry weather follow
starting on Sunday with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quick update for Severe thunderstorm watch for the Midlands and
CSRA through 10pm. Organized convection lifting north-
northeastward through central GA should move into the CSRA after
4pm and continue northeastward across the Midlands providing a
damaging wind threat. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out but
the primary threat is damaging winds and large hail.

Previous discussion:
Tornado watch issued for the Upstate SC and western NC. The
strongest SR helicity should remain northwest of the CAE CWA and
southwest in Georgia. Severe threat expected to increase for central
SC and east central Georgia later this afternoon into the evening...

Deepening surface low pressure over Kentucky/Indiana early this
afternoon with a trailing cold front moving east of the Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the front, Precipitable water increase across SC to
around 1.5 inches with southwest low level flow...Warm air advection
appears weak however. Upper level low over Tennessee moving east-
northeast and taking on negative tilt. Upper level divergence will
be increasing over the Carolina as upper level 100 kt jet rounding
the base of the trough moves east. In addition a strong short wave
trough will approach the Carolinas. This will result in strong lift
across the region during time of peak heating...highs in the mid to
upper 80s as the cold front approaches.

Instability appears to be moderate with SB CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg.
Mixed layer CAPE is low at the moment and with gusty winds probably
mixing down lower dew points later in the day...possible limiting
factor. The CAMS suggest a possible storm mode of discrete cells
early, with low tornado threat given the lack of SR Helicity. Then
with a uni-directional strong shear profile late this afternoon, a
squall line ahead of the front 21z-24z with damaging winds the
primary threat along with hail given relatively low wet-bulb zero
height as the upper low approaches. Went with relatively high pops.
The front should push to the east of the area during the 03z- 06z
period tonight. Drier air will filter in behind the front and the
showers should move into the coastal plain. The stronger cold
advection may be delayed until morning so overnight temps only fall
to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will swing over the forecast area Saturday with lower
heights and cooler temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s
with mostly cloudy skies. With considerable cooling aloft with the
upper low right over us, could get some showers and maybe even a
thunderstorm to develop, especially in the NE portion of the
forecast area. Saturday night the upper low will shift offshore with
drier air pumping into the forecast area. Overnight lows cooler as
well Saturday night with temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

NW flow aloft across the area Sunday with N flow at the surface with
drier air pumping into the forecast area as PWATs drop to .7 to .8
inches and skies begin to clear from SW to NE. Cold advection and
clouds will keep temperatures in the upper 60s NE to mid 70s SW.
Cold advection will continue overnight with lows in the upper 40s
north and low 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Good agreement among global models and their ensemble suites in
the low pressure remaining just east of the area with a
blocking ridge preventing it from pushing further downstream.
All euro ensemble members keep PWATs below an inch with
generally northerly flow continuing. Temperatures will slowly
recover into next week, remaining below normal. The low will
slowly shift back to the west by the middle of the week with
some increasing moisture which may lead to showers developing
late in the period, although moisture will still be fairly
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will approach from the lower Mississippi Valley by this
evening. Ahead of the front, the air mass is becoming moderately
unstable. The CAMS suggest a convective squall line with a few
discrete cells will develop in east central GA then move northeast
through the area during the 20z-24z. Kept the brief period of IFR
conditions as the thunderstorms moves through the area. Clearing
skies in the late evening with mainly mid level ceilings. Winds will
be southwest 15 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts ahead of the
front then shift to west after 12z Saturday. Strato-cumulus may
develop after 12z Saturday as the upper level low moves over the
area and maybe some brief light showers, but VFR conditions expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There will be another chance for showers
on Saturday, especially across the northern CWA as the upper level
low passes by. Patchy early morning stratus/fog possible
particularly at OGB/AGS on Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
439 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-070845-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
439 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will bring a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
through the area this afternoon. The main threat will be damaging
winds, isolated tornadoes, and large hail. Brief heavy rainfall will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
445 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-062115-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Edgefield SC-
445 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDuffie,
northwestern Columbia, southeastern Lincoln, west central Edgefield
and southeastern McCormick Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomson, moving northeast at 55 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Strom Thurmond Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thomson, Appling, Clarks Hill Recreation Area, J. Strom Thurmond Dam,
Riverwood, Mistletoe State Park, Thomson-McDuffie County Airport,
Wrightsboro, Hamilton Branch State Park, Parksville, Sweetwater Park,
Winfield, Modoc, McDuffie County Fire Department, Thomson Fire
Department, Scott's Landing, McDuffie Regional Medical Center, Knox
Scout Reservation, White Oak Campground and Boneville.

This includes Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and
183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
east central Georgia...and central South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8255 3364 8252 3366 8251 3365 8249
      3368 8250 3384 8228 3369 8203 3334 8251
      3336 8253 3336 8255 3341 8255 3346 8259
      3358 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 239DEG 49KT 3350 8240

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
447 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             AUGUSTA DANIEL FIELD    33.47N 82.04W
05/06/2022  M1.75 INCH       RICHMOND           GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT DANIEL
            FIELD.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
448 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             2 SE FORT GORDON        33.40N 82.12W
05/06/2022  M1.25 INCH       RICHMOND           GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AT FORT
            GORDON.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND GST     AUGUSTA DANIEL FIELD    33.47N 82.04W
05/06/2022  M57 MPH          RICHMOND           GA   ASOS

            ASOS REPORTED A 57 MPH WIND GUST AT DANIEL
            FIELD.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 NNE AUGUSTA DANIEL FI 33.50N 82.02W
05/06/2022  E1.75 INCH       RICHMOND           GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
            REPORTED NEAR AUGUSTA NATIONAL GOLF COURSE.

&&

GPL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
455 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             1 NE AUGUSTA DANIEL FIE 33.48N 82.03W
05/06/2022  M1.00 INCH       RICHMOND           GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT AUGUSTA
            UNIVERSITY.

&&

LCV