Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022
Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm warning at Apr 18, 2022, 4:01 AM EDT for Lewis County, New York. It took effect at Apr 18, 2022, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 18, 2022, 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 18, 2022, 8:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 19, 2022, 1:52 PM EDT
- In force
- 18 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
County Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 4:00 AM EDT | SNOW 7 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | |
| Apr 19, 6:00 AM EDT | SNOW 9.8 | 5 W Constableville, NY | |
| Apr 19, 1:00 PM EDT | SNOW 8.5 | 2 Se Constableville, NY | STILL SNOWING. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 279 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1369 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
302 WWUS41 KBUF 180801 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 401 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 NYZ008-181615- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0010.220419T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0007.220419T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 401 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-014-181615- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 401 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-181615- /O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 401 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
6 follow-up statements
110 WWUS41 KBUF 181046 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 NYZ008-181900- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.220419T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 646 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-014-181900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 646 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-181900- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 646 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
072 WWUS41 KBUF 181707 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 NYZ008-190115- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.220419T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest accumulations will be across the higher terrain. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-014-190115- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-190115- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.220419T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 107 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. Greatest accumulations will be across the Tug Hill Plateau. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ TMA
508 WWUS41 KBUF 190026 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 826 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 NYZ008-191000- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 826 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Lewis county. Greatest accumulations will be across the higher terrain. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-014-191000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 826 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-191000- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 826 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ Apffel
671 WWUS41 KBUF 190818 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 418 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 NYZ008-191700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 418 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches...with the higher amounts being found on the Tug Hill and in the higher terrain east of the Black river valley. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...particularly across the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible this morning across the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ004-005-014-191500- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 418 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-191700- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 418 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially across the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$
842 WWUS41 KBUF 191339 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 939 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 NYZ004-005-014-191445- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1500Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 939 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Scattered light snow showers will transition to rain and snow showers this afternoon. Minimal additional snow accumulation is expected. $$ NYZ008-192100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 939 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Lewis county. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...particularly across the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. The heavy wet snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be possible this morning across the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-191800- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220419T1800Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 939 AM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. For Oswego county this will be across the higher terrain over far eastern Oswego county. * WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult...especially across the higher terrain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will be heavy and wet and could cause a few power outages in addition to travel impacts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JLA
290 WWUS41 KBUF 191752 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 152 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 NYZ008-200300- /O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220419T2100Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220420T0600Z/ Lewis- Including the city of Lowville 152 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Lewis county. The greatest additional snow amounts will occur on the Tug Hill and on the higher terrain of eastern Lewis county. Only minor snow accumulations will occur elsewhere. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ NYZ006-007-200300- /O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-220420T0600Z/ Oswego-Jefferson- Including the cities of Oswego and Watertown 152 PM EDT Tue Apr 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Oswego and Jefferson counties. The greatest additional snow amounts will occur on the Tug Hill. Little if any snow accumulation will occur elsewhere. * WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. && $$ JLA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Apr 18, 1:48 AM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 18, 1:48 AM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 AM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will supply us with cold moonlit conditions
overnight...then a complex storm system will approach the region on
MOnday with increasing clouds and afternoon rain. The rain will
change to snow late Monday and early Monday night with some minor
accumulations expected through Tuesday. Significant accumulations
will be possible east of Lake Ontario...particularly across the
higher terrain. A notable warming trend can be expected later this
coming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Ridging at all levels will push across the region overnight...
supplying the forecast area with cold moonlit conditions.
Temperatures away from the lakes will drop into the 20s.
Sunshine to start the day Monday will fade behind increasing clouds
from west to east. Despite the increasing cloud cover temperatures
should be able to recover into the 50s, although with an earlier
arrival of clouds and eventually precipitation, 40s may be as warm
as the western Southern Tier can get.
Precipitation arrives from the southwest during the afternoon,
although it might take some time for it to start to reach the ground,
with a dry airmass in place. Precipitation starts as rain, but
evaporative cooling will send temperatures back down into the 30s.
Lower elevations probably stay rain through the afternoon, but the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier should go over to wet
snow fairly quickly by late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A complex weather pattern at the start of this period will result in
accumulating wet snows for parts of the region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Genesis for this problematic storm will be derived
from energy in the southern stream of a split flow that will be
captured by a vigorously digging negatively tilted longwave trough
in the arctic branch of the jet. This will support out of season
Miller B cyclogenesis along the Mid Atlantic coast resulting in a
rapidly deepening storm that will eventually bring significant snows
to the eastern portions of the area.
Diving down into the specifics, with a focus in western and north
central New York, the area will be found between the initial primary
low (associated with northern branch of the split jet) over Upper
Great Lakes and the rapidly deepening secondary low along coast. A
trough and corresponding axis of deep moisture between the two
features will move across our region Monday night. The two main
sources of lift for the moisture will be fairly strong low level
convergence and significant height falls on the magnitude near 200m.
Given this environment, it is a straight forward decision that it
will precipitate, however the forecast dilemma dwindled down to the
changeover time to specifically wet snow.
850mb temperatures early Monday evening will be in the vicinity of
-3C with the column largely below freezing (as low as 1000ft). It
will be a shallow layer of marginally cold air (+1 to +3C) that will
initially keep precipitation in a mixed phase. However as time
progresses later into Monday night, weak cold advection will drop
850mb temperatures to around -6C with nocturnal and dynamic cooling
in the lowest levels allowing any mixed pcpn to completely change to
wet snow. This being said, latest model runs are trending the
coastal low further inland than in previous models, which as
indicated in an earlier discussion has practically doubled snowfall
totals across the far eastern portions of the forecast area. Current
thinking has a inch or two falling in the lower elevations, where
over seven inches are possible across the higher terrain (mainly
across the Tug Hill Plateau and the far eastern portions of the
Adirondacks). As such, a winter storm watch is in effect for Lewis
County from 8PM Monday to 11AM Tuesday.
On Tuesday, the negatively tilted mid level trough will exit via the
St Lawrence valley while the newly phased upper level pattern will
eject the deepening coastal low northwards across New England. This
will result in deep cyclonic flow of moist chilly air across our
forecast area and support more mixed rain and snow over our region
with some local terrain and lake enhancement. An additional coating
of snow is likely, again mainly over the higher terrain where
another inch or two could accumulate on the Tug Hill. Highs will
generally be in the low to mid 40s, but likely not out of 30s for
higher terrain.
Ridging over the Upper Mississippi valley Tuesday evening will
advance across the Upper Great Lakes overnight; encouraging clearing
over the western counties with the mixed precipitation ending from
west to east. Additional nuisance snowfall amounts will be possible
on the Tug Hill.
The progressive ridge will cross the forecast area Wednesday and
early Wednesday night. While there may be a leftover rain or wet
snow shower over the Eastern Lake Ontario Wednesday morning, fair
dry weather can be anticipated. Temperatures will start their upward
climb at this time by climbing some 10 deg fahrenheit with highs
reaching into the 50s Wednesday afternoon.
Clouds will increase and thicken Wednesday night ahead of a warm
front with some rain showers becoming possible after midnight for
west of the Genesee valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough will pass across Lake Ontario Thursday bringing
chances for rain showers to our region. Behind this trough a stout
upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to build across the
East, with an omega block pattern by next Sunday. This will bring
day to day warming...with temperatures into the 70s by early next
week.
There will be chances for rain showers Friday Night and into
Saturday as a warm front passes through. There are some suggestions
that this warm front could stall near the North Country Sunday,
under the western influences of an upper level trough over Atlantic
Canada. This will bring uncertainty for how warm it will become
Sunday, with ensemble member support of both the ECMWF and GFS
keeping the North Country a bit cooler. For now will have widespread
70s across WNY, with lower 60s east of Lake Ontario. If this warm
front does push through we likely will have widespread 70s, and
perhaps a few 80s for next Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds will be found throughout the region
through daybreak.
Clouds will then thicken from west to east during the day Monday
as an upper level trough will drop across the Great Lakes region.
The lowering cigs in the afternoon will yield a steady rain...which
will change over to wet snow late Monday afternoon and evening...
during which time VFR cigs will deteriorate to MVFR levels.
Widespread snow with IFR cigs can be expected for Monday night.
Outlook...
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...MVFR to VFR. Chance of rain showers.
Friday...Restrictions likely with a chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions tonight as surface high pressure crosses the Lakes.
Southwest winds will increase behind the passage of a cold front
Tuesday with a period of Small Craft Advisory headlines expected
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
High pressure will bring diminishing winds by mid week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning
for NYZ008.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ/RSH
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Thomas/TMAHazardous weather outlook, Apr 17, 2:48 PM EDT, 13 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 NYZ006-007-181900- Oswego-Jefferson- 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A complex storm system moving through the region Monday night and Tuesday could produce several inches of wet snow, especially across the higher terrain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-085-181900- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A complex storm system moving through the region Monday night and Tuesday could produce several inches of wet snow, especially across the higher terrain. Relatively warm surfaces should minimize any travel impacts, but a slushy accumulation on some roadways cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-181900- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee- Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A complex storm system moving through the region Monday night and Tuesday could produce several inches of wet snow, especially across the higher terrain. Relatively warm surfaces should minimize any travel impacts, but a slushy accumulation on some roadways cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-181900- Lewis- 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-181900- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 4:01 AM EDT | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Lewis and 4 more | 48 hr |
| Apr 18, 12:33 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 5 hr | |
| Apr 18, 3:50 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 49 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.