Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

992 
WWUS41 KBUF 241727
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

NYZ006>008-250130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.220225T0600Z-220226T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-250130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0200Z-220225T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch. Ice amounts up to two tenths of an inch possible across
  southern Allegany and southern Cattaraugus counties.

* WHERE...The western Southern Tier.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>014-085-250130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0300Z-220225T2100Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, Orchard Park, and Springville
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. A little sleet late tonight and early 
  Friday morning. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-250130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0600Z-220226T0300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning and evening commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-250130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0600Z-220226T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
1227 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

960 
WWUS41 KBUF 242352
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

NYZ006>008-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.220225T0600Z-220226T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening 
  commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0200Z-220225T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of 
  an inch. Ice amounts up to two tenths of an inch possible 
  across southern Allegany and southern Cattaraugus counties.

* WHERE...The western Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>014-085-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0300Z-220225T2100Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, Orchard Park, and Springville
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. A little sleet late tonight and early 
  Friday morning. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0600Z-220226T0300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning and evening commutes Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-250900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.220225T0600Z-220226T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
652 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
JLA

476 
WWUS41 KBUF 250853
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

NYZ006>008-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220226T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 
  inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220225T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, and Wellsville
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of 
  an inch. Ice amounts up to two tenths of an inch possible 
  across southern Allegany and southern Cattaraugus counties.

* WHERE...The western Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010>014-085-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220225T2100Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, Orchard Park, and Springville
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Some sleet mixed in at times. Additional
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. 

* WHERE...Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and sleet will result in slippery roads and 
limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220226T0300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-251700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220226T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
353 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

373 
WWUS41 KBUF 251649
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1149 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

NYZ004-005-251800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220226T0300Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1149 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Some light snow may continue into this afternoon. However,
accumulations are expected to be minor with no additional impacts.

$$

NYZ001>003-251800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220226T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
1149 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Some light snow may continue into this afternoon. However,
accumulations are expected to be minor with no additional impacts.

$$

NYZ010>014-019>021-085-251800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-220225T2100Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1149 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Some light snow may continue into this afternoon. However,
accumulations are expected to be minor with no additional impacts.

$$

NYZ006>008-260100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220226T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1149 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

521 
WWUS41 KBUF 252033
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
333 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

NYZ006>008-252145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220226T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
333 PM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Light snow will diminish through early this evening across the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Use caution if traveling as untreated
roads will remain snow covered and slippery for the evening commute.

$$

JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake snows continue south of Lake Ontario into early Thursday
with minor accumulations. After a mainly sunny but cold day on
Thursday, our attention will turn to a storm system that will pass
to our south Thursday night and Friday. All areas can expect at
least several inches of snow during that period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Expansive high pressure centered over northern Michigan late
tonight will build to the east across the Upper Great Lakes to
the Ottawa valley overnight. Northerly flow will result in light
snow showers and flurries south of Lake Ontario, though with
lowering inversions accumulations will be minor, ranging from a
coating in most areas to an inch or so from Monroe co to Cayuga
co. A jet streak will track across western NY overnight and
light snow and flurries are possible across the western Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes.

Temps will remain steady in the teens south of Lake Ontario,
while readings will end up around zero across the North Country
where skies clear out through the night.

High pressure centered to our north on Thursday will provide us with
a cold day...although a strengthening late Feb sun should help to
minimize the chill. Afternoon temps on Thursday will generally range
from the lower 20s east of Lake Ontario to the upper 20s to around
30 across western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday Night surface high pressure will be near Quebec, while a
sharp shortwave deepens a surface low over the mid Mississippi
Valley. The track of the surface low is across PA and towards the
southern Genesee Valley. This will bring a warm layer aloft very
close to our region, such that chances for a mixed event remains
possible across the inland Southern Tier and far southern Genesee
Valley late Thursday Night and into Friday.

A look at deterministic models, the 12Z NAM and 3 km NAM bring the
surface low farther northward than the 12Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian.
If the NAM solution were to verify we would see a mix as far north
as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. While with little support
from other 12Z models, this trend farther northward with the warm
layer have been seen times before. However the top 2 analogs from
CIPS were events (January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014) that
featured snow totals that indeed did breech into warning criteria
across much of our forecast area. Given the mixed guidance,
have opted to add Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties
to the Winter Storm Watch but held off for Western NY where
mixing is a greater concern and consensus QPF is slightly less.

The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a
period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow
formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50
knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet
streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a
tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region.
Snow will reach our Southern Tier Thursday evening and quickly
spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight.

The surface low will be tracking towards western PA and possibly
into WNY by early Friday morning. This would send a warm nose aloft
northward changing the lower atmosphere to a profile that would
support sleet and eventually freezing rain. Again, the NAM is the
farthest northward with this warm layer...one that would bring a mix
up to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. For now we will keep any
mix to our southern two rows of counties.

A secondary surface low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula early
Friday morning and rapidly deepen as it tracks northward up the
coastline. Meanwhile the initial primary low will begin to weaken
before combining with the secondary low to our east. A deformation
band of snow behind the primary low, that along with the passing of
the shortwave aloft will then be the dynamical forcing later in the
day Friday, bringing additional accumulation through the morning and
afternoon hours. This could also be the period with highest snowfall
rates...ones that could near an inch per hour.

As the cold air aloft quickly deepens behind this storm system, and
ambient moisture lingers a period of lake enhanced snow will likely
hang on along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario as well as
southeast of Lake Erie through the afternoon hours.

Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory
range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher
amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with
the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates
through the afternoon hours under the deformation band.

Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down
across the Southern Tier.

Behind this system temperatures at 850 hPa will drop down to the mid
negative teens Celsius. This along with a northwest wind will
develop lake effect snow initially south of the Lakes Friday
afternoon, and then southeast of the Lakes Friday Night. Greater
amounts will likely be off Lake Ontario, where the waters are still
open, and where the northwest winds will have a longer residence
time over the Lake waters. Winds, backing as a surface high ridges
to our region will steer a weakening band of snow to areas east of
Lake Ontario Saturday.

This surface high will begin to clear the skies Friday Night with
lighter winds allowing for overnight lows to drop back into the
lower teens across the Lake Plain...to a few spots around zero or
lower well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front approaching the region from the north Saturday night into
Sunday will promote a generally westerly flow across the area.
Synoptic scale moisture picks up with the approach of the boundary
which will support an increasing risk for lake response snow sowers
east of the lake. Response should be the greatest east of Lake
Ontario. NBM probabilities during this time period look much too
low, so boosted accordingly. Will need to monitor this time period
for a "sneaky" lake event east of Lake Ontario where several inches
of accumulation will certainly be possible.

The cold front should move across the region by Sunday night with a
better coverage of snow, falling temperatures and continued lake
effect snow, although focusing more south and southeast of the lakes
within a northwest flow regime. Wind chill values Sunday night into
Monday morning likely below zero, especially east of Lake Ontario.

Though we will trend toward drier weather into the first part of
next week, temperatures look to stay below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
North flow across Lake Ontario with a lowering inversion will result
in widespread MVFR cigs but only light snow showers or flurries with
limited visibility reductions. KROC terminal would be most favored
for any brief reductions. Skies will continue to clear out at
KART. A upper level jet will track across the region overnight
and light snow and flurries are possible across the Southern
Tier including KJHW.

Lake enhanced clouds will gradually dissipate and shift out of
the area during Thursday morning. Flight conditions improving
from mainly MVFR to mainly VFR. High pressure will ridge into
the region with mainly VFR flight conditions Thursday afternoon.

Low pressure will approach the terminals Thursday night with
cigs lowering Thursday evening and light snow moving into
western NY from south to north. Vsby reductions are likely.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday...Mainly IFR. Snow, mixed with sleet
at some locations. Significant accumulations possible.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with localized IFR in lake
effect snow showers east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will steadily diminish the rest of the night.
Remaining small craft advisories on Lake Ontario will end as
outlined below.

Gentle to moderate northeasterlies Thursday morning will freshen
late in the day and Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from
the Tennessee Valley will pass by to the south and likely support
another round of marine headlines Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Faster responding creeks have already crested and will continue
to drop through tonight.

Following latest RFC guidance warnings remain up for the Black Creek
at Churchville, Tonawanda Creek at Batavia and Rapids and Oatka
Creek at Garbutt. There's also a flood warning still in effect for
the Avon forecast point on the Genesee River. No other forecast
points on the Genesee River are expected to reach flood.

Will continue to monitor a few forecast points which will crest
close to flood stage through this evening, but the threat for
additional flooding beyond this is limited.

Otherwise, there's minor flooding along Irondequoit Creek at
typically vulnerable locations. We also have gotten a report of
an ice jam flooding a parking lot along Sandy Creek in Jefferson
County. The gage at McKeever on the Moose River in eastern Lewis
county also shows sign of an ice jam. Flooding in urban areas is
not expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Friday evening
     for NYZ004>008-014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042-043-045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK/JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK/JLA
MARINE...Apffel/JLA
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
427 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-242130-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
427 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for a winter storm from Thursday night
through Friday that may cause hazardous travel conditions. This
winter storm will have the potential to cause accumulating snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>008-014-242130-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
427 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-242130-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
427 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel