Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front sweeps into our area through daybreak allowing most of
the showers and thunderstorms to end. Cooler and drier conditions
arrive behind the front later today through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe watch continues with some reports of severe weather last
couple hours, especially over southern Tier. As expected have also
seen some instances of training with heavy rainfall given small MBE
vectors and PWATs up to 2 inches. Cold front is just arriving over
northwest Niagara Frontier and will continue southeast rest of the
early morning hours, ending showers and thunderstorms from northwest
to southeast.

By daybreak the last of the showers will be exiting our eastern
zones...with clearing commencing towards the west. As high pressure
builds toward our region we should become mostly sunny through the
afternoon with comfortable levels of humidity returning as dewpoints
fall into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to track toward the region through
Tuesday, eventually becoming centered over western New York by
Tuesday afternoon. The high along with associated dry air will
provide fair weather through Tuesday night.

Dry weather will likely continue to start the day Wednesday, but
should start to clouds increase with chances for showers starting to
arrive by afternoon as the high slides off to the east towards the
New England coast and a surface warm front starts to approach the
lower Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front should be through much of the area Thursday, but could
continue to see additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as
cold front moves through on Thursday. Though the cold front will
clear the area by Friday morning, active weather may persist until
the main trough axis finally swings through the eastern Great Lakes
Friday afternoon. Surface high pressure building in its wake leaving
us with mainly dry weather for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front crosses early this morning. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue settling southeastward ahead of the
front. Ceilings have lowered to IFR to lower MVFR from IAG and BUF
to JHW. Similar trend will occur at ROC and ART next few hours.
IFR ceiling heights will continue for several hours across the
Southern Tier.

Behind the front Monday morning and then through the day VFR flight
conditions will prevail with a gusty westerly wind.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR but a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...VFR but a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk southwest winds will continue early this morning on Lake Erie.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect. West to southwest winds
shifting west will kick up a chop over Lake Ontario into this
morning with conditions possibly exceeding Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

In addition to winds and waves, a few more thunderstorms will impact
eastern Lake Ontario through daybreak.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JLA/Thomas
MARINE...JLA/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NYZ004>006-008-013-014-019>021-260745-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms early this morning will be capable of producing gusty
winds and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-007-010>012-085-260745-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Jefferson-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Southern Erie-
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-260745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
334 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NYZ003-011>014-250630-
Ontario NY-Livingston NY-Wyoming NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
144 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Wyoming,
Livingston, southeastern Genesee, southwestern Monroe and Ontario
Counties through 230 AM EDT...

At 142 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several strong
thunderstorms over the western Finger Lakes region that are moving
east at 40 to 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and rainfall of one to two inches.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Batavia, Canandaigua, Geneseo, Letchworth State Park, Le Roy, Perry,
Warsaw, Avon, Mount Morris, Victor, Honeoye Falls, Pavilion, Conesus,
Bristol, Caledonia, Lima, Clifton Springs, Phelps, Bloomfield and
Naples.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 6 and 11.
 Interstate 90 between exits 44 and 43.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7833 4300 7821 4301 7700 4276 7720
      4276 7732 4267 7737 4260 7737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 261DEG 43KT 4276 7742

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE SINCLAIRVILLE     42.33N 79.20W
07/24/2022                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN CHARLOTTE TOWNSHIP.

1207 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW GERRY             42.21N 79.26W
07/25/2022                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 60 BETWEEN GERRY
            AND SINCLAIRVILLE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NYZ006>008-250800-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Jefferson, central Lewis and northeastern Oswego Counties through 400
AM EDT...

At 325 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Barnes Corners, or 16 miles east of Sandy Island
Beach State Park, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lowville, Barnes Corners, Whetstone Gulf State Park, Denmark, New
Bremen, Watson, Martinsburg, Greig, Copenhagen, Croghan, Castorland,
Worth, Belfort, Smartville, Bellwood, Kirschnerville, Rector, Beaver
Falls, Indian River and Brantingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4354 7595 4371 7605 4407 7538 4371 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 247DEG 45KT 4368 7587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Welch

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