Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

628 
WGUS71 KBUF 250816
FFSBUF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NYC013-029-121-250826-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220725T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chautauqua NY-Erie NY-Wyoming NY-
416 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA, 
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

LAT...LON 4244 7944 4249 7945 4253 7938 4260 7918
      4269 7911 4282 7844 4276 7830 4269 7828
      4257 7880 4252 7915

$$

SJW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for showers and thunderstorms will be with us at times
through tonight with the threat for strong to severe storms and
locally heavy rainfall. Cooler and drier conditions arrive for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

We have replaced severe thunderstorm watch 498 with severe
thunderstorm watch 500...which now goes through 5 AM and will
include our entire CWA.

MLCAPE values remain over 1000 J/KG and effective bulk shear
values of 45 to 50 knots will support an environment for severe
storms. The axis of a mid level jet will be passing across our
region through the mid overnight. Regional radars display
activity across western and central Lake Erie as well as
widespread convection over Lake Ontario and southern Canada. The
main threats for overnight will be damaging winds from mini
convective bows...and with DCAPE values 1000 J/KG and greater
damaging downdrafts are also possible. Will also need to monitor
the heavy rain aspect as well tonight. PWAT values of 1.75 to
2.00 inches along with shortening MBE vectors could allow for
backbuilding storms...or training storms to produce heavy
rainfall of an inch or two. This will likely be isolated...and
close to flash flood guidance of 1-hr and 3-hr...and will elect
to not have any hydro headlines at this point.

The main cold front will begin to cross the region overnight.

Main cold front and wind shift arrive late tonight across the
Niagara Frontier ending the showers and thunderstorms from
northwest to southeast.

By early Monday morning the last of the showers will be exiting
our eastern zones...with clearing commencing towards the west.
As high pressure builds toward our region we should become
mostly sunny through the afternoon with comfortable levels of
humidity returning back into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to track toward the region through
Tuesday, eventually becoming centered over western New York by
Tuesday afternoon. The high along with associated dry air will
provide fair weather through Tuesday night.

Dry weather will likely continue to start the day Wednesday, but
should start to clouds increase with chances for showers starting to
arrive by afternoon as the high slides off to the east towards the
New England coast and a surface warm front starts to approach the
lower Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front should be through much of the area Thursday, but could
continue to see additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as
cold front moves through on Thursday. Though the cold front will
clear the area by Friday morning, active weather may persist until
the main trough axis finally swings through the eastern Great Lakes
Friday afternoon. Surface high pressure building in its wake leaving
us with mainly dry weather for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible for
the next 6 hours or so of the TAF cycle.

Activity centered largely on lake breeze circulations and inland
convergent zones this early evening will become more widespread
through the late evening hours. A now warm lake body of water will
continue the risk for strong to severe storms near KBUF-KIAG-KROC
and later KART through the midnight hour. Thereafter, the threat for
strong to severe storms will diminish, though a passing shower
remains possible through early Monday morning as the cold front
passes through.

As the risk for storms increases this evening, brief reductions to
IFR or lower are possible within downpours. Ceiling heights tonight
will likely lower to MVFR for a time after the storms, with IFR
ceiling heights for several hours likely across the Southern Tier.

Behind the front Monday morning and then through the day VFR flight
conditions will prevail with a gusty westerly wind.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR but a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...VFR but a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk southwest winds will continue into tonight on Lake Erie. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect for the Lake Erie waters through
the night.

Even though winds diminish by late evening, higher waves will not
subside on Lake Erie until late tonight. West to southwest winds
shifting west will kick up a chop over Lake Ontario later tonight
and into Monday with conditions possibly exceeding Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

In addition to winds and waves, multiple rounds of thunderstorms
will also impact most if not all the waters at times through
tonight. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong enough to satisfy
Special Marine Warning Criteria (winds of 35+ knots and hail of 0.75
inch or larger).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-260230-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
1019 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-260230-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1019 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW BLISS              42.55N 78.30W
07/24/2022                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON EAGLE
            ROAD NEAR THE TOWN OF BLISS.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
901 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW BLISS             42.57N 78.34W
07/24/2022                   WYOMING            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            ON JAVA LAKE ROAD NEAR THE TOWN OF ARCADE.

&&

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
901 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

NYZ020-085-250130-
Cattaraugus NY-Southern Erie NY-
901 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Cattaraugus
and southern Erie Counties through 930 PM EDT...

At 901 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gowanda, or 13 miles south of Hamburg, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Boston, Eden, Springville, Colden, Gowanda, North Collins, East
Concord, Wales Center, Chaffee, North Boston, Concord, Collins,
Yorkshire, Holland, Sardinia, Dayton, Delevan, Perrysburg, Lime
Lake-Machias and Langford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 7905 4278 7851 4278 7846 4242 7846
      4241 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 253DEG 49KT 4252 7886

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1154 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE DUNKIRK            42.50N 79.31W
07/24/2022                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE CITY OF
            DUNKIRK.

&&

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1211 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW DUNKIRK            42.50N 79.35W
07/24/2022  M54 MPH          LEZ041             NY   C-MAN STATION

&&

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NYZ003-004-011>014-250530-
Ontario NY-Livingston NY-Wyoming NY-Wayne NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
101 AM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Wayne,
Wyoming, Livingston, southeastern Genesee, southern Monroe and
western Ontario Counties through 130 AM EDT...

At 100 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Avon to Mount Morris to 10 miles east of
Arcade. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chili, Geneseo, Fairport, Dansville, Brighton, Letchworth State Park,
Henrietta, Le Roy, Perry, Palmyra, Warsaw, Avon, Mount Morris,
Victor, Honeoye Falls, Pavilion, Conesus, Bristol, Caledonia and
Lima.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 4 and 12.
 Interstate 90 between exits 46 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 7846 4286 7819 4311 7784 4309 7720
      4258 7749 4258 7766 4254 7766 4252 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 268DEG 37KT 4291 7777 4272 7788 4256 7826

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSH