Snow Squall Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
756 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent clipper system will pass to the north of the region this
morning, producing a few bursts of heavy snow showers and strong,
gusty winds. Lake effect snow will then develop behind the cold
front today, especially east of Lake Ontario with locally heavy
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting over 50 mph
will produce blowing and drifting snow areawide. Dry weather will
return Sunday, along with warming temperatures by afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing an impressive band of heavy snow along the
approaching cold front. This band of heavy snow will move very
quickly across Western NY this morning, reaching the eastern
Lake Ontario region by mid to late morning. This band will
produce about 15 minutes of near whiteout conditions as it moves
through, with even some strikes of lightning possible.

A potent clipper will move across southern Quebec today, with the
trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes this
morning. The clipper will bring impactful weather today,
including strong gusty winds, bursts of heavy snow showers along
the cold front, blowing snow, and lake effect snow.

The clipper itself will bring a quick burst of snow along the cold
front, moving from west to east across the area early this morning,
which will become lake enhanced east and northeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario. Expect a few inches from this across Western NY and
east of Lake Ontario, with around an inch for the Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes.

Following the clipper, lake effect snow will develop east of both
lakes as cold air deepens and lake induced equilibrium levels rise
to 10-12K feet. Deep post-frontal synoptic moisture, favorable
dendritic crystal growth, and convergent westerly flow down the long
axis of Lake Ontario will produce a brief 4-6 hour window for a band
of heavy snow east of the lake today. The setup is less favorable
east of Lake Erie with shorter fetch and extensive ice cover on the
lake.

Off Lake Ontario...

Expect a burst of lake enhanced snow with the clipper cold front
early to mid morning. A band of heavy lake effect snow will then
develop by late morning across the Tug Hill Plateau. This band of
snow will drift slowly south across the Tug from late morning
through mid afternoon, becoming quite heavy with 2-3"/hr snow fall
rates likely. Late this afternoon the band will move south across
Oswego County and weaken as boundary layer flow veers more
northwesterly. Total accumulations will likely reach 8-12" across
the Tug Hill Plateau, with 3-6" for some of the surrounding lower
elevations.

Some lake effect snow will persist tonight southeast of Lake
Ontario, but in a weaker state as inversion heights fall and
moisture decreases. Expect 2-3" across portions of Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties, and 1-2 inches near the lakeshore in
Monroe County. What remains of the lake effect will drift back over
the lake and end by Sunday morning.

Off Lake Erie...

The lake has extensive ice cover, but there are still enough
openings in the ice and thin ice to support some lake response.
There is still sensible heat flux from the lake to the atmosphere
through thin ice that can produce a muted lake response even with
extensive ice cover. The lake enhanced cold front will produce a
burst of snow early this morning. There will likely be a lull in
activity mid to late morning, then expect some additional lake
effect and upslope snow to develop across the higher terrain east of
the lake from midday through early evening, with some upstream
connection to Lake Huron for a few hours this afternoon. Expect 2-4"
of accumulation across the higher terrain of Southern Erie and
Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. These amounts are
marginal for an advisory, but when combined with wind and blowing
snow, an advisory is warranted.

A 50+ knot low level jet will linger behind the cold front today as
the clipper passes to the north, producing advisory criteria wind
gusts across much of the area. The strongest wind gusts of 50-55 mph
northeast of Lake Erie and in Jefferson County will be this morning
along and immediately behind the front in southwest flow. Meanwhile,
from the interior Southern Tier through the western Finger Lakes and
points southeast of Lake Ontario, the strongest gusts of 45-50 mph
will likely be this afternoon as winds veer WNW. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for most of the area for the gusty winds today.

The strong winds will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow
today, especially in open areas. The worst blowing snow will be in
lake effect areas where more fresh powder is available to blow
around, and this may produce near whiteout conditions at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will end with an abrupt about face in sensible weather,
particularly in western New York as vigorous southerly flow in the
boundary layer gradually encompasses the CWA through the day on
Sunday. This drives 850 hPa temperatures toward a rough consensus of
+1C or so by late afternoon, which given the momentum profile
through the boundary layer, should at least come relatively close to
mixing out. A lack of RH in the profile will further increase the
likelihood of good mixing through the daytime on Sunday as the
strong late February sun will be doing its thing to steepen lapse
rates in the low levels. Because of all of this, even with a very
cold start to the day, diurnal temperature increases should allow
the mercury to fly up past the mid 40s in WNY with some areas
approaching 50F. Even in the North Country, where we will be
starting the day subzero, diurnal increases to 40F or higher seem
quite reasonable.

Warm conditions will persist through the rest of the short term
period as a weak frontal boundary attempts to sag down toward the
upper part of the St. Lawrence River but really fail to make inroads
into the CWA. As a result, well above normal temperatures will
continue into the new week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A topsy-turvy long term looks to take shape as warm advection
further increases into the area on Tuesday ahead of the next system
to affect the area. This will allow for rain to overspread the area
on Tuesday. With 850 hPa temperatures jumping up toward +7C, there
is virtually no chance of anything but liquid rain (unless all of
the model guidance is terribly wrong, which is unlikely). By this
juncture, given the warm and relatively dry conditions of Sunday
through Monday night, we will have already melted off the current
snow pack in most spots, so additional hydro concerns will be a bit
less than last week as the melt won't be directly concurrent with
substantial precipitation.

While deep warm advection and rain will continue through Tuesday
night, the trailing cold front looks to be incredibly impressive on
all forecast guidance. While timing for its passage varies by 6-12
hours at the moment, the dramatic fall off in temperatures comes
with abundant dry air in the wake of the cold front. Lake responses
look unimpressive even with strong cold advection as moisture
profiles lean out pretty quickly in the post-frontal environment.

Colder air settles into the area for a couple days until the next
system with decent timing unison in model guidance approaches for
Thursday night and Friday. The ECMWF is notably warmer than other
global model solutions, and it is really the only solution that
brings up enough warm air to have a changeover to rain, however it's
rarely a good idea to fully discount the ECMWF in the extended.
Thus, while the forecast favors colder solutions for the moment, the
numbers were tempered a bit to account for the warmer ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A clipper system will pass just north of the region this morning and
produce impactful weather today. The clipper cold front will cross
the eastern Great Lakes early this morning and produce a few bursts
of heavy snow, with gusty winds producing blowing snow as well. The
burst of snow will not last long, but will briefly bring VSBY down
below airfield minimums in most areas. At KBUF/KIAG this is ongoing
and will end by 13Z. At KROC this will cross the airfield around
13-14Z.

Following the clipper cold front, lake effect snow will develop east
of Lake Ontario with locally heavy snow focusing on the Tug Hill
Plateau and Oswego County with local VLIFR. Light lake effect snow
will also bring occasional IFR east of Lake Erie. Otherwise the rest
of the area will see mainly MVFR CIGS.

The clipper will also produce strong winds today, with gusts of 35-
40+ knots common. The strongest winds near Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario will be this morning, with the strongest gusts from the
interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes coming this
afternoon as flow becomes more WNW.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR possible. Rain.
Wednesday...MVFR. Chance of rain and snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A potent clipper will move across southern Quebec today, with the
trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes early this
morning. This system will bring a period of gales to Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario today before winds diminish tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING IMPACTS STARTING TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...

Small stream and poor drainage flooding continues to improve as
colder temperatures end runoff, but some larger rivers are still
rising and will not recede until later in the weekend. Many of the
smaller creeks, rivers and streams, including most of the Buffalo
Creeks with the exception of the slower responding Tonawanda Creek,
have fallen below flood stage and warnings have been dropped.

Flood Warnings continue along the upper Allegheny River in the
Southern Tier, and also Black Creek near Churchville in Monroe
County. A Flood Warning is also still in effect for Irondequoit
Creek in the eastern suburbs of Rochester.

Though most ice jams over western NY have flushed through the
waterways, there have been indications of ice jams farther to the
east. The most notable of these is on the Black River near the
Boonville forecast point, so an areal flood warning continues
for this section of Lewis county through tonight.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong clipper system will bring southwest to west gale force
winds across the lower Great Lakes today. On Lake Erie, given
areas of ice and ice floes, there is uncertainty on how these
gale force winds will impact water levels and lead to potential
ice shoves. Areas along the lakeshore that are free of ice could
see possible minor flooding due to water level rises, and
possibly even impacts from ice being moved onshore by the rising
water. The period of greatest risk from these impacts would be
through midday today.

On Lake Ontario, strong onshore winds and significant wave
action today through this evening may result in lakeshore
flooding along the immediate lakeshore, especially in bays,
inlets, harbors, and other low lying areas along the shoreline.
Shoreline erosion is also possible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ010-019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ004>007.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ004>006-013-
     014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...Fries
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ008-201100-
Lewis-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-201100-
Jefferson-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lake Effect Snow Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-201100-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-011-201100-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-201100-
Oswego-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.
   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-201100-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-201100-
Northern Erie-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-201100-
Wyoming-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-201100-
Cattaraugus-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-201100-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Lake effect snow will produce several inches of accumulation late
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-201100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-201100-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-201100-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-201100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-201100-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
359 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
430 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ001-010-019-085-191030-
Chautauqua NY-Southern Erie NY-Niagara NY-Northern Erie NY-
430 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA...SOUTHERN
ERIE...NIAGARA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow which can rapidly reduce visibility
to less than a quarter of a mile will move into the Niagara Frontier
and areas near Lake Erie early this morning. Winds gusting to over
50 mph will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow with very
poor visibility.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...A band of heavy snow over Lake Erie will
move into the Niagara Frontier and areas near the Lake Erie shore
through 530 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda,
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Lancaster, Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville,
Grand Island and Evans.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 49.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 7977 4244 7950 4253 7939 4259 7919
      4272 7909 4280 7892 4292 7890 4299 7902
      4306 7900 4308 7908 4315 7904 4330 7909
      4334 7895 4337 7852 4274 7852 4254 7906
      4252 7906 4222 7976 4227 7976 4228 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 242DEG 33KT 4286 7916

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
516 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ006>008-191215-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
516 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...BLOWING SNOW WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 515 AM EST, an area of heavy snow with accompanying blowing snow
was located along a line extending Kingston, Ontario, to just
offshore of Rochester. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Fort Drum,
Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville,
Pulaski, West Carthage, Clayton, Central Square, Adams, Dexter,
Redfield, Glen Park, Herrings, Kring Point State Park and Chimney
Bluffs State Park.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4410 7517 4361 7511 4342 7553 4348 7581
      4328 7587 4327 7661 4342 7662 4331 7671
      4334 7671 4327 7695 4326 7745 4332 7738
      4335 7681 4356 7645 4357 7628 4387 7635
      4387 7650 4395 7634 4410 7643 4440 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1015Z 265DEG 36KT 4414 7654 4332 7734

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
532 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085-191130-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern
Erie-Wyoming-Orleans-Genesee-Monroe-Niagara-Northern Erie-
532 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...
NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...NORTHEASTERN
CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 530 AM EST, an area of heavy snow was located along a line
extending from Middleport to 10 miles northwest of Lake Erie State
Park. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Batavia, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst,
Tonawanda, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Lancaster, Hamburg, Brockport, East
Aurora and Medina.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 47.

The snow will be accompanied by winds gusting over 40 mph. This will
cause significant blowing snow. Be prepared for hazardous driving
conditions. Consider delaying travel if you will be going through
this area of heavy snow.

LAT...LON 4253 7939 4259 7919 4272 7909 4280 7892
      4293 7891 4299 7901 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4314 7904 4323 7906 4333 7896 4337 7880
      4332 7761 4239 7871 4244 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 258DEG 24KT 4323 7846 4251 7960

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
607 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ001-002-010-019-085-191200-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-Orleans-Niagara-Northern Erie-
607 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ERIE...NIAGARA...WESTERN
ORLEANS AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 604 AM EST, a band of very heavy snow and blowing snow was
located along a line extending from Grimsby, Ontario, to Long Point,
Ontario. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda,
Clarence, Lockport, Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda,
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Lancaster, Hamburg, Medina, Williamsville, Grand
Island and Evans.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 49.

Visibilities are near zero in this band of heavy snow. The snow can
accumulate at a rate of one to two inches per hour or more in this
band of heavy snow. Be prepared for hazardous driving conditions.
Consider delaying travel if you will be going through this band of
heavy snow.

LAT...LON 4253 7939 4259 7919 4272 7909 4280 7892
      4295 7892 4300 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908
      4315 7904 4330 7909 4340 7864 4342 7811
      4313 7842 4313 7846 4309 7846 4242 7919
      4239 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 260DEG 46KT 4329 7937 4240 8033

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
633 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ019-191200-
Chautauqua-
633 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

At 632 AM EST, a band of heavy snow and blowing snow was located
near North East, or 17 miles northeast of Erie, moving east at 50
mph.

Locations impacted include...
Fredonia, Westfield, Mayville, Clymer, Long Point State Park,
Chautauqua Institution, Lake Erie State Park, Findley Lake,
Chautauqua, Portland, Ripley, Stockton, Brocton, Mina, Arkwright,
French Creek, Sherman, Cassadaga, Sinclairville and Panama.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 60.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 10.

Visibilities are near zero in this band of heavy snow. The snow can
accumulate at a rate of one to two inches per hour or more in this
band of heavy snow. Be prepared for hazardous driving conditions.
Consider delaying travel if you will be going through this band of
heavy snow.

LAT...LON 4232 7977 4242 7955 4243 7916 4200 7940
      4200 7976 4227 7976 4228 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 282DEG 43KT 4228 7981

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
659 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-191400-
Chautauqua-Allegany-Southern
Erie-Orleans-Wayne-Monroe-Niagara-Cattaraugus-Ontario-Livingston-
Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie-
659 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL RACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...

At 657 AM EST, a band of heavy snow with near whiteout conditions
was located along a line extending from Barker to near Westfield.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Rochester, Greece, Cheektowaga, Irondequoit, West Seneca,
North Tonawanda, Jamestown, Clarence, Chili, Lockport, Lackawanna,
Batavia, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Olean, Geneva and
Dunkirk.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 390 between exits 4 and 12.
 Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 42.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 33.

Visibilities are near zero in this band of heavy snow. Significant
blowing snow is also occurring. The snow can accumulate at a rate of
one to two inches per hour or more in this band of heavy snow. Be
prepared for hazardous driving conditions. Consider delaying travel
if you will be going through this band of heavy snow.

LAT...LON 4200 7976 4231 7977 4259 7919 4272 7909
      4280 7892 4292 7890 4299 7901 4307 7901
      4340 7865 4339 7775 4328 7754 4336 7678
      4303 7675 4301 7696 4276 7697 4276 7731
      4258 7737 4258 7766 4253 7772 4200 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 273DEG 38KT 4335 7854 4227 7960

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