Tornado Warning 48, NWS Birmingham, AL

902 
WWUS54 KBMX 051640
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALC081-123-051649-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-220405T1700Z/
Lee AL-Tallapoosa AL-
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for east central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3258 8589 3265 8589 3266 8591 3268 8591
      3282 8559 3273 8559 3273 8558 3274 8557
      3273 8556 3267 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 252DEG 47KT 3272 8553 

$$

17/KLAWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
649 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0347 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/

Today.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to spread across
Central AL this morning as a warm front lifts through the region. A
fast-moving complex of thunderstorms will then move eastward through
the area. Damaging winds will be the main concern with these
thunderstorms given the ample forcing and shear. There will likely
be a sharp northward gradient in the severe threat as surface based
instability struggles to lift northward into our area behind the
warm front. Based on current guidance the area with the best chance
for damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two will be generally
along and south of the Hwy 80/I-85 corridor, which is where the high
resolution guidance suggests the surface based instability build in.
A few storms this morning in MS have produced large hail along the
warm front, so I've added mentioned for hail in the hazardous
weather outlook with any storms that lift northward this morning
with the warm front into Central AL.

The complex of storms should push east of our area by the mid-
afternoon, ending the threat for severe weather across Central AL.

Wednesday.

As we go into Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach from the
northwest. Model guidance has been very consistent in showing an
unstable airmass across all of Central AL ahead of the frontal
passage. The main low pressure system itself, along with most of the
upper level dynamics are displaced well to the north, which limits
our mid and upper level forcing along the front. Guidance has also
continued to show a good amount of dry air aloft with this system,
which could limit the amount of deep convection along the front as
it moves in. Additionally, recent high resolution guidance has
trended with more convective development just to our south
associated with a pre-frontal shortwave that moves across the Gulf
Coast, which could limit the low level moisture return for Central
AL. These potential limitations cast a good amount of uncertainty in
the severe threat on Wednesday. If thunderstorms are able to develop
along the front, or ahead of the front in the unstable airmass, they
could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail as the
main threats. I can't completely rule out the tornado potential, but
the likelihood remains on the lower end. The question will be
what wins out - the shallow moist layer with the cold front or the
dry air aloft.

The front is expected to move out of the area by Wednesday night
around midnight with much cooler and drier air advecting from the
northwest.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0347 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/

Thursday through Monday.

The main system will be exiting the region Thursday morning and
giving way to overall dry weather through the weekend. With that
said an upper low will begin to swing into the region Friday
afternoon and into Saturday. There some hints that some light
rain/drizzle may be around in the northeast Friday and Saturday
afternoon as several shortwaves slide around the upper low. For now
will just go with some increased clouds during the afternoon.
Another concern on Saturday and Sunday mornings will be the
potential frost and possible freeze in the northern third of the
area. The potential frost is looking pretty good, with a low
confidence of a freeze for a few location. Given the April timeframe
now will go ahead and add cold into the HWO for Saturday morning and
may need to add Sunday morning as well in the update tomorrow night.
Moisture returns to the west on Monday and remains in the area
through Tuesday before finally pushing east some by the middle of
next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Widespread rainfall and storms quickly took over the area this
morning. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for the next 12
hours, with low vis in the heavier storms. Some improvement after
00z, but ceilings remain low.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system will bring widespread showers and storms to
the area today, with locally heavy rainfall. All areas can expect
gusty winds today as a squall line will move rapidly from west to
east, which could produce wind gusts above 50 mph. The threat of
higher winds will be mainly along and south of the Highway 80/I-85
corridor. There will be a lull in the rain Tuesday night. A cold
front will push into north Alabama Wednesday afternoon and trigger
scattered to numerous showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  59  80  45  66 / 100  20  70  60   0
Anniston    72  63  80  48  66 / 100  20  60  70   0
Birmingham  74  63  80  48  67 / 100  20  70  60   0
Tuscaloosa  77  64  82  47  67 / 100  10  70  40   0
Calera      75  65  81  50  67 / 100  20  70  60   0
Auburn      71  65  78  53  68 / 100  40  70  70   0
Montgomery  76  67  82  53  70 / 100  30  60  70   0
Troy        77  66  83  54  71 / 100  40  70  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-061215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible today. Damaging winds up to
60 mph and large hail will be the main threat with tornadoes
possible. Localized flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday. Damaging winds
and
hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Today and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     HAIL             UNIONTOWN               32.45N 87.51W
04/05/2022  E0.75 INCH       PERRY              AL   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED IN UNIONTOWN.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
731 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 AM     HAIL             1 N TALLAPOOSA WATER PL 32.46N 86.20W
04/05/2022  E1.00 INCH       ELMORE             AL   PUBLIC

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
740 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     HAIL             2 S BLUE RIDGE          32.47N 86.19W
04/05/2022  E0.70 INCH       ELMORE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
757 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     HAIL             3 WNW PINTLALA          32.20N 86.42W
04/05/2022  E1.00 INCH       LOWNDES            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
829 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     HAIL             TROY UNIVERSITY         31.80N 85.96W
04/05/2022  E0.70 INCH       PIKE               AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 AM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HAIL             1 NW TROY COUNTRY CLUB  31.79N 85.98W
04/05/2022  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AL   PUBLIC

&&

JD